"I'm entitled to THE math"

Just before the 2006 midterm elections, Karl Rove said:

I add up to a Republican Senate and Republican House. You may end up with a different math but you are entitled to your math and I'm entitled to THE math.

It didn't turn out that way:

The Senate election was part of the Democratic sweep of the 2006 elections, in which no Congressional or gubernatorial seat held by a Democrat was won by a Republican. Democratic candidates defeated six Republican incumbents: Rick Santorum (Penn.), Mike DeWine (Ohio), Lincoln Chafee (R.I.), Jim Talent (Mo.), Conrad Burns (Mont.), and George Allen (Va.). Incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Lieberman (Conn.) lost an August Democratic primary challenge but won re-election as an independent. Democrats kept their two open seats in Minnesota and Maryland, and Republicans held onto their lone open seat in Tennessee. In Vermont, Bernie Sanders, an independent, was elected to the seat left open by independent Senator Jim Jeffords.

With a mere 1.6 million seconds to go (about 19 days) until the 2008 election, Dick Morris has come out with his prediction for the electoral map:

If the election took place this week, it would be a wipeout of major proportions. Even McCain‘s home state of Arizona has to be classified as leaning toward Obama. McCain, as of now, can be certain of carrying just eight states with a combined total of only 36 electoral votes.

Morris predicts 396 EVs for Obama to a mere 110 EVs for McCain, and only 36 EVs as solidly in McCain's pocket compared to 355 EVs solidly for Obama.

Dick Morris can hardly be considered a solid Democratic partisan. He helped Governor Bill Clinton get re-elected in Arkansas and was a successful Republican strategist before returning to work for President Bill Clinton's second presidential campaign and has since said he'd leave the country if Hillary were elected in 2008. But he's gone waaaay out on a limb to suggest that Arizona and Arkansas are leaning and solidly for Obama and South Carolina and Georgia are presently tossups. It's possible that he's trying a Hail Mary to get out in front of Republican disaster so he can later claim to have been the first to see just how bad it was going to be. Or he might be setting up a position where he can claim that X campaign element he suggested has improved McCain's situation. Or maybe his professional dominatrix told him how it would all turn out.

A More Solid Set of Projections
I've previously mentioned that I follow FiveThirtyEight.com and Electoral-Vote.com. Pollster.com is also good. As of 2008.10.14, FiveThirtyEight's map looks like:

While Electoral-Vote.com's looks like:

There are minor variations, but both show Obama in the 355-360 EV range whereas Pollster.com shows Obama at 313 EVs (but shows 70 tossups -- a far higher number than either FiveThirtyEight or Electoral-Vote):

Right now, polling shows us a rockslide (less than a landslide, but getting there) for Obama. Trends are also encouraging for the Democratic party. Electoral-Vote shows us two different graphs, with and without "leans" EVs:

Even without leaners, Electoral-Vote has Obama over 270 EVs. Pollster.com's trend is harder to read, but shows us more information:

You can see that polls are coming thicker and faster now than earlier in the cycle, and that we're starting to see some real clumping of results and divergence between the red (Republican) and the blue (Democratic).

It looks good for the Democratic party. Republicans are starting to abandon states they would normally win easily. The national Republican organization is beginning to pull money from the national race to shore up state candidates long thought "safe".

The only game-changer left that I can see working for McCain is a successful terrorist attack and even that is unlikely to succeed, since more and more Americans see Obama as more trustworthy in a crisis.

She's warming up in the wings....

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Go Darcy Go!

47%

to 40%

Darcy Burner is up 7% over Reichert.
That is OUTSIDE the Margin of Error.

Yesterday, Darcy was up 5% over Reichert in the DNCC poll, 49%-44%.

The economic wave and Darcy's terrific debates have reached the WA-08.

Finally.

GO DARCY GO!

The following from the Lake Research polling memo (the Burner campaign team pollster. They are fully trustworthy. Just as the DNCC poll yesterday was trustworthy. Pollsters who lie to their clients aren't rehired the following cycle.)

Open Left

Reichert's floor of 52 has been cracked, and he's now in the low 40s. That means that his main asset, his image of a hard charging sheriff is no longer working in the district. Lake is Darcy's pollster, but there are reasons to think this confirmation of yesterday's DCCC poll is on target.

The latest Lake Research Partners survey of likely voters in Washington's 8th District shows Democrat Darcy Burner leading Republican Dave Reichert for the first time in the history of our polling.

• Burner now leads Reichert 47% to 40%. This is the first time she has ever led, signaling that the voters of WA-08 are ready for the kind of change on behalf of middle class families that Burner promises to bring.

• Reichert's re-elect stands at just 36%. The remaining two thirds of the electorate would consider voting for someone else, vote to replace Reichert, or aren't sure.

With enough resources to continue to communicate Burner's strong messages and inform voters about Reichert's ineffectiveness, Burner is on a path to emerge victorious in 20 days.

There's more...

Darcy is on track to win by three to five points. (My assessment.)

Let me give that to you again...

Darcy is on track to win by THREE TO FIVE points. *smiles*

Rock and fracking roll.

Contribute here.

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Palin's Plunge in Polls — 47% Concerned About McCain Finishing a Single Term

September 7:

Talk about a bounce! Via USA Today, among likely voters, John McCain has a 10-point post-convention lead over Barack Obama, the only such lead since January.

Most important is the enthusiasm that Sarah Palin has generated on the ticket — quite a surge

September 16:

On the question of Sarah Palin's favorability, here are the numbers by gender:

Women: Favorable 37%, Unfavorable 36% [+1]
Men: Favorable 48%, Unfavorable 27% [+21]

Among women, it's a wash. Among men, it's a blowout.

And on the question of whether the Palin choice makes voters more or less likely to vote for McCain, here's the gender split:

Women: More Likely 25%, Less Likely 28% (-3)
Men: More Likely 29%, Less Likely 21% (+8)

Now guess which group has changed its vote. In the August poll, women favored Obama 53%-38%; now they favor him ... 54%-38%. Almost identical numbers.

It's the men who've switched -- 48%-45% Obama in August, 53%-40% McCain now.

September 19:

(Image: Al Rodgers, found at Daily Kos)

September 20:

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin blew onto the national political scene like a surprise hit movie - with an exciting script, a new landscape, a fresh face - that suddenly everyone wanted to see and talk about.
...
But now that the Republican vice presidential candidate has been seen and heard by millions - and parodied on "Saturday Night Live" before millions more - a question has been raised about the "Palin Effect." While GOP loyalists apparently still love the movie, is it starting to wear thin on the rest of America, particularly the legions of middle-of-the-road voters?

"Is she a one-hit wonder? Unless she does something radically different from what she's currently doing, yes," Cal State Sacramento political communications Professor Barbara O'Connor said this week. She said that in the 23 days since Palin was named the GOP vice presidential choice, her script has been a limited and increasingly predictable one. "It's fine to say she needed some time to get her footing ... but we're well past that."

October 2:

Public Policy Polling surveyed four states immediately after the Republican convention and then again three weeks later. In those states, Gov. Sarah Palin's favorability has dropped by a net average of 12 points, and Sen. Barack Obama's standing in the horse race has improved by an average of seven points.

October 2:

...public assessments of Sarah Palin's readiness have plummeted, and she may now be a drag on the Republican ticket among key voter groups, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll

October 7:

(Graph: Evan Robinson, Group News Blog, Data: Alaska Daily News, 2008.10.07)

In recent Alaska polling, Sarah Palin's negatives have more than doubled since the end of August. Her positives have dropped more than 15 points. In Alaska.

Like Hubris said:

Why does it matter?

Because 47% of the electorate worry that John McCain would fail to complete even one term:

It's one of the largest age gaps between presidential candidates in American history.

Republican Sen. John McCain is 72, a skin cancer survivor, and would be the oldest man sworn in for a first term as president. His opponent, Democratic Sen. Barack Obama, is 47 and the fourth-youngest major party nominee.

A new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. Poll finds that may be a political liability for McCain. Nearly half of the Americans surveyed, 47 percent, are concerned that McCain would not finish a four-year term as president in good health.

Put Palin's plunging polled positive prospects (I hate it when I get stuck on 'P') alongside the electorate's concern's about McCain's health and welfare, and you have a lot of people worried about Palin landing in the Oval Office. Selecting Palin as the VP may prove to have been the death-knell for McCain's candidacy:

THOUGHTS ON SARAH PALIN'S RNC SPEECH - In a word, nauseating. Gov. Sarah Palin, who we are being led to believe is a 'conservative's conservative,' had the opportunity to outline her policies in a clear and coherent fashion. She had the opportunity to share her vision of America, and how starkly it contrasts to the socialist vision of Barack Obama. Instead, we got sarcasm, whining, and just plain old nastiness. The partisan hacks in attendance ate it up with a spoon, of course; but I can't help but feel that 75% of America was watching and thinking 'this is Dick Cheney in a skirt,' only nowhere near as shrewd. We got the tired neo-con lines about terrorism, Islam, protecting poor little ole' Israel, so on and so forth. Absent a 9-11 type disaster sometime in the next 63 days (always a possibility, I suppose), that is not going to sell in the year 2008. Not a chance, as most Americans have woken up to the GOP fear mongering, which is why Obama's pie-in-the-sky rhetoric of 'change' and 'hope' is working as well as it is with the still-quite-ignorant masses.

I don't think I need add anything more.

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Presidental Debate #2: CBS Poll of Undecideds

Obama Wins Debate #2 With Undecided, says CBS News

Polling of 400 uncommitted voters gives victory to Obama.

"SIXTY-EIGHT PERCENT of uncommitted voters think Obama would make the right decisions about the economy."
--CBS News Poll

CBS News

Thirty-nine percent of the 400 uncommitted voters surveyed identified Barack Obama as tonight's winner; 27 percent said John McCain won, while 35 percent saw the debate as a draw.

After the debate, 68 percent of uncommitted voters said that they think Obama will make the right decisions on the economy, compared to 54 percent who said that before the debate. Fewer thought McCain would do so – 49 percent after the debate, and 41 percent before.

Before the debate, 60 percent thought Obama understands voters’ needs and problems; that rose to 80 percent after the debate. For McCain, 35 percent felt he understands voters’ needs before the debate, and 46 percent thought so afterwards.

There is some good news for McCain, who still dominates Obama when it comes to perceptions of readiness to be president. Before the debate, 42 percent thought Obama was prepared for the job, and that percentage rose to 57 percent after the debate. But 80 percent felt McCain was prepared for the job before the debate, and 84 percent thought so afterwards.

This debate was not the blowout Presidential Debate #1 and the Vice Presidential Debate were. However...

Obama got the job done.

This was McCain's last real chance to turn the race around. He failed.

Watch how the polling moves over the next few days.

• Hominid Views
• Electoral-Vote.com

Watch these numbers shift over the next three days; it will take three full days for the numbers to reflect tonight's debate.

Gallop

The nine percentage point lead in Oct. 4-6 tracking matches Obama's highest to date for the campaign, and the highest for either candidate. Obama led McCain by 49% to 40% near the tail end of his international trip in late July. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

Obama has now held a statistically significant lead since Sept. 24-26 polling and has not trailed McCain since Sept. 13-15, roughly coinciding with the intensification of the financial crisis

ELECTORAL VOTE is all that matters.

OPEN THREAD for electoral politics. Also Senate and Congress.

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Tuesday: Open Thread

Everyone's busy.

We are under 30 days to the election.

Homind Views gives Obama 362 electoral votes.

Electoral Vote gives Obama 349 electoral votes.

I predict we will win by 100 electoral votes, and I think we are going to hit 400.

Got to run. Doctor's appointment.

How's your day going?

My mom just left town after being here for four days.

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Presidential Debate #1: CBS Poll of Undecideds

Obama Wins Debate #1 With Undecided, says CBS News

Polling of 500 uncommitted voters gives a clear victory to Obama.

"SIXTY-EIGHT PERCENT of uncommitted voters think Obama would make the right decisions about the economy."
--CBS News Poll

CBS News

Forty percent of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. Twenty-two percent thought John McCain won. Thirty-eight percent saw it as a draw.

Forty-six percent of uncommitted voters said their opinion of Obama got better tonight.

Sixty-eight percent of uncommitted voters think Obama would make the right decisions about the economy. Forty-one percent think McCain would.

Obama is winning.

Watch how the polling moves over the next few days.

Electoral-Vote.com
Well known, well respected, been around for a while.

Hominid Views
University of Washington Statistics Professor
I know and respect him. Good guy. I like his numbers.

Watch out these numbers shift over the next three days; it will take three full days for the numbers to reflect tonight's debate.

Remember -- it's ELECTORAL VOTE that matters. One vote is all it takes (except in two states) to win that state. National polls don't mean anything, not really. This is 50 state races for President.

Use this post as an OPEN THREAD for electoral politics. Also talk Senate and Congressional races.


Update 10:15 pm:

The above snap poll confirms Sen. Barack Obama is going to win the election.

Obama base: 40%
McCain base: 35%
Uncommitted: 25%

Over the next month that 25% will break out...
Obama: 10%
McCain: 5%
Uncommitted: 10%

With one week left the numbers will be:

Obama: 50%
McCain 40%
Undecided: 10%

• Obama needs to win at 60% to win the election.
• Or the Bradley Effect (people saying they'll vote for a Black, but not) gets him.
• Or voter fraud by Republicans (caging, electronic vote flipping, voter ID, and so on)

Each State is its own election. Obama doesn't need 60% NATIONALLY. He needs 60% in the States he's going to win for certain.

The final 10% undecideds will break out the same as the snap poll 40/25:

Obama 40%
McCain 25%

The last 35% of the 10% undecideds splits the same, 25/10 which gives us a total of:
Obama 65%
McCain 35%
of the final 10%

Which is:
Obama 6.5%
McCain 3.5%

Obama 50+6.5%=56.50%
McCain 40+3.5%=43.50%
------------------------
100.00%

TEN PERCENTAGE POINTS nationally over McCain expressed in 50 individual states, some of which Obama will blow out by 30-40 points, others where he will lose by 30-40 points, translates into a 100 point Electoral Vote victory, roughly 370 EV for Obama.

Sen. Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States.

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The Numbers That Say McCain Loses in November...

48 > 14

A CBS News/NY Times poll released on the 17th says that 48% of voters think "the economy and jobs" is the most important issue in deciding whom to support for President. 14% think "terrorism and national security" is most important, followed by 10% concerned about "gas prices and energy" and 10% worried about "health care". Only 8% of registered voters cited the Iraq war.

Conventional wisdom says that Democrats win when elections are about the economy and Republicans win when elections are about national security (quote from 2008.01.23):

Voter attention is now on the U.S. economy, buffeted by a housing market that is threatening to tip the country into an election-year recession.

"If the economy is sliding into a recession that would favor the Democrats," said Andy Smith, political science professor at the University of New Hampshire.

But a campaign about national security would favor Republicans, he said, particularly if Republicans nominate McCain, a former Vietnam prisoner of war and a critic of Bush's handling of the Iraq war.

This is not a reason to get complacent. It is a reason to feel better about the upcoming election.

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Obama 49% McCain 40%

Belmont Horse Racing Photo, 1950's Anonymous

Sen. Barack Obama now leads Sen. John McCain among national registered voters by a 49% to 40% lead, according to the latest Gallup Tracking Poll.

The margin is the largest for Obama over McCain measured since Gallup began tracking the general election in March.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109102/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-McCain-40.aspx

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Electoral-Vote.Com

Another political friend from back in 2004 is the Votemaster at http://www.electoral-vote.com He's a brilliant guy and has done a fantastic job on his site of calculating and presenting polling and electoral data. It should be a regular stop on your intertube surfing as we head into the final 100 days of this election. Need more assurances? Check this out.

"The site also covered the 2006 midterm elections and correctly predicted the winner of all 33 Senate races that year."

This week the Votemaster had some great reviews of the global tour bump.

Yesterday Barack Obama said that he expected his polls to drop since he hadn't been campaigning for a week (as if he didn't know the effect of having Americans watch 200,000 Germans cheering and waving American flags). To his "surprise," Obama got a bounce in the national polls. Gallup has him ahead 48% to 41% (was 45% to 43% before the trip). Rasmussen has him ahead 49% to 43% (was tied at 46%). An NBC/WSJ poll has Obama on top 47% to 41%. A 5% win in the popular vote will almost assuredly result in a landslide in the electoral college.

John Weaver, for many years Mcain's top political strategist, said it was a big mistake for McCain to dare Obama to go to Iraq, only to have the country's Prime Minister endorse Obama's plan to withdraw U.S. troops in 2010. It is going to be very hard for McCain to continue to argue that American troops should be in Iraq for 100 years if the elected Iraqi government doesn't want them there. McCain can probably change his position without being accused of flip-flopping (e.g., by saying something like "If the Iraqis now feel we have secured their country, it is fine to leave") but it will be very difficult for McCain to claim he has better judgement than Obama on foreign affairs.

Make sure you click around his site. He has great data on the presidential race but also a terrific senate and house pages. His downloadable data page will warm the heart of the wonkiest wonks and the most hard core politicos among us (you know who you are).

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The Clown Presidency

19%

Among all Americans, 19% approve of the way Bush is handling his job as president and 77% disapprove. When it comes to Bush's handling of the economy, 14% approve and 79% disapprove.

-- arg poll

U.S. Deaths Confirmed By The DoD: 3,963

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No, No, NO!

photo of Belle by Sherry

Enough of this Hillary Is Unelectable Crap

I've had it.

Democrats can't even do a circular firing squad right.

• We're opposed to gun control (expect for Presidential candidates triangulating for independent voters.)
• Half the firing squad will show up late or not at all.
  
• Everyone's against capital punishment so now we're arguing if we can't just taser the luckless bastard.
• And ten percent want Ralph Nader to take over (again), because there's no real difference between a Democratic firing squad and the Republicans.

Horseshit.

"Oh, Hillary can't get elected."

"I'd never vote for Hillary."

"Corpses will rise from their freaking graves" to vote against her, y'all cry.

Yes indeed.

If we're to listen to the frantic whining of you petulant fucks whom clearly God herself couldn't please, if "that woman" is nominated for President, a veritable avalanche of diseased, decaying and deceased Republicans will arise, descend on the polls of America in a shit storm of body parts and blood not seen since Omaha Beach, burying that hapless helpless female and smother the bitch to death.

God bless America.

And some of you go on to say, you won't vote for her either.

ARE YOU OUT OF YOUR FUCKING MINDS?

Did Ralph Nader not make an impression on you? Has seven years of George "I'm the Decider and I De-cider" Bush not burned itself in the blood of others into every fucking cell of your body?

THERE IS A DIFFERENCE.

Republican. Democratic. There's a difference.

I don't care if the Party of Roosevelt, Kennedy and Clinton nominate a one-eyed three-legged dog for President. If she's on the ticket, I'm voting her in.

No Republicans, no third-party candidates, no withholding votes.

I vote the straight party-line Democratic Party ticket.

Twenty-seven percent of Americans support George Bush. Stop buying into the enemy's frame. They want you to believe Hillary is unelectable. They want you to believe she can't win.

She's a Clinton you fools. Of course she's electable. Why in the hell do you think the enemy is putting so goddamn much effort into convincing you she isn't?!

Knock it off. Stop doing their work. Stop talking up their frame -- it's a lie.

A one-eyed three-legged dog. I don't care who is on the Democratic Ticket. They get all my support and every dollar I can spare.

Republicans are the enemy. The Democratic Party is our friend and the hope of 220 years of the United States of America.

Is there a difference between the candidates in the Democratic Party? Of course. Campaign away, fight hard, and may the candidate you dream of, win the nomination. But when the nomination's locked, shut the hell up, get behind the plow and push.

If you don't get we're fighting for the survival of the United States, you're not paying attention.

Hilary Clinton is incredibly electable. The people who have you believing otherwise are Republicans and their media allies, terrified they can't beat her.

Stop buying lies. Stop spreading lies.

Knock that "unelectable" crap off.

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Right Wing Rudy Take-down

27%

Of Republicans Would Vote for Pro-Life Third Party Instead of Giuliani

That 27% number keeps popping up.

It's the hard-core Bush-love Jebus-praising closeted-torture-loving one out of four fetus worshipers who it seems just don't have any love for the adulterous pro-abortion pro-gay New York liberal racist 9/11 9/11 9/11 9/11 Tourette‘s syndrome icon, Mr. Rudy "my wife & I always talk on the cell phone since 9/11 even through the surgical staples" Giuliani.

Praise the Lord.

Rasmussen Reports

A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that a three-way race with Hillary Clinton would end up with the former First Lady getting 46% of the vote, Giuliani with 30% and the third-party option picking up 14%. In head-to-head match-ups with Clinton, Giuliani is much more competitive.

Electability is a crucial issue for Giuliani because two-thirds of Republican voters seen him as politically moderate or liberal. That is a challenge unto itself in a political party where most primary voters consider themselves politically conservative. Fred Thompson is currently viewed as the most conservative candidate in the field.

Three of the last four Presidential elections have seen a candidate win with less than 50% of the total votes cast. If Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Presidential nomination, there is a very reasonable possibility that neither major party candidate would top the 50% mark in Election 2008. With such a scenario, third party candidates on either side of the political spectrum could play a significant role by peeling away one or two percentage points of the vote.

It gets worth for his 9/11-ship. Oh yes oh yes, it gets worse...

MyDD

What A Right-Wing Challenge To Rudy Would Mean

As I wrote on Sunday, the evangelical movement's version of the Stonecutters held a super secret meeting on Saturday during which they apparently "decided to consider" supporting a third party challenger in the presidential race if Rudy Giuliani becomes the Republican nominee. Family Research Council's Tony Perkins, who attended the meeting, tried to pushback a bit on that story on Monday's Hardball:

This was more of a proclamation of principle, rather than a declaration of intent. There`s no desire to run a third-party candidate. But there`s been a line drawn, which I think most pro-life conservatives are not willing to cross.

But today, in a New York Time oped, Focus On The Family's James Dobson confirms that that line they decided to draw was indeed between their support and a Rudy Giuliani presidency:

The purpose of the gathering was to discuss our response if both the Democratic and Republican Parties nominate standard-bearers who are supportive of abortion. Although I was neither the convener nor the moderator of the meeting, I'd like to offer several brief clarifications about its outcome and implications.

After two hours of deliberation, we voted on a resolution that can be summarized as follows: If neither of the two major political parties nominates an individual who pledges himself or herself to the sanctity of human life, we will join others in voting for a minor-party candidate. Those agreeing with the proposition were invited to stand. The result was almost unanimous.

Or as TPM puts it:

Talking Points Memo

27% of Republican voters would rather vote for a third-party Christian right candidate in a general election than vote for Rudy Giuliani — and that's in a three-way race with Hillary Clinton.

The hypothetical three-way race shows Hillary with 46% support, Rudy at 30%, and the third-party conservative with 14%. Among self-described pro-life voters, Rudy gets only 36% support, with the third-party candidate at 29% and Hillary with 23%. Not just that, but Rudy gets only 25% of pro-choice voters, with Hillary still walking away comfortably with 65%.

• If these numbers hold up...
• If Dobson runs a third-party candidate
• Giuliani loses 2-3 conservative votes for
• Every 1 socially liberal independent vote he gains.

To win, he'd have to flip-flop, swing HARD right, except the right will never trust him.

The right at that point has their anti-abortion pro-torture candidate. The true heart of the country has the Democratic Party. And Giuliani gets smeared.

Oh, people are just getting started. Couldn't happened to a bigger turd.

“Jiffy Pop, bitches!”

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