Friday, September 26, 2008

Presidential Debate #1: CBS Poll of Undecideds

Obama Wins Debate #1 With Undecided, says CBS News

Polling of 500 uncommitted voters gives a clear victory to Obama.

"SIXTY-EIGHT PERCENT of uncommitted voters think Obama would make the right decisions about the economy."
--CBS News Poll

CBS News

Forty percent of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. Twenty-two percent thought John McCain won. Thirty-eight percent saw it as a draw.

Forty-six percent of uncommitted voters said their opinion of Obama got better tonight.

Sixty-eight percent of uncommitted voters think Obama would make the right decisions about the economy. Forty-one percent think McCain would.
Obama is winning.

Watch how the polling moves over the next few days.

Well known, well respected, been around for a while.

Hominid Views
University of Washington Statistics Professor
I know and respect him. Good guy. I like his numbers.

Watch out these numbers shift over the next three days; it will take three full days for the numbers to reflect tonight's debate.

Remember -- it's ELECTORAL VOTE that matters. One vote is all it takes (except in two states) to win that state. National polls don't mean anything, not really. This is 50 state races for President.

Use this post as an OPEN THREAD for electoral politics. Also talk Senate and Congressional races.

Update 10:15 pm

The above snap poll confirms Sen. Barack Obama is going to win the election.

Obama base: 40%
McCain base: 35%
Uncommitted: 25%

Over the next month that 25% will break out...
Obama: 10%
McCain: 5%
Uncommitted: 10%

With one week left the numbers will be:

Obama: 50%
McCain 40%
Undecided: 10%
  • Obama needs to win at 60% to win the election.
  • Or the Bradley Effect (people saying they'll vote for a Black, but not) gets him.
  • Or voter fraud by Republicans (caging, electronic vote flipping, voter ID, and so on)
Each State is its own election. Obama doesn't need 60% NATIONALLY. He needs 60% in the States he's going to win for certain.

The final 10% undecideds will break out the same as the snap poll 40/25:

Obama 40%
McCain 25%

The last 35% of the 10% undecideds splits the same, 25/10 which gives us a total of:

Obama 65%
McCain 35%
of the final 10%

Which is:

Obama 6.5%
McCain 3.5%

Obama 50+6.5%=56.50%
McCain 40+3.5%=43.50%

TEN PERCENTAGE POINTS nationally over McCain expressed in 50 individual states, some of which Obama will blow out by 30-40 points, others where he will lose by 30-40 points, translates into a 100 point Electoral Vote victory, roughly 370 EV for Obama.

Sen. Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States.