Obama Wins Debate #1 With Undecided, says CBS News
Polling of 500 uncommitted voters gives a clear victory to Obama.
"SIXTY-EIGHT PERCENT of uncommitted voters think Obama would make the right decisions about the economy."
--CBS News Poll
CBS NewsObama is winning.
Forty percent of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. Twenty-two percent thought John McCain won. Thirty-eight percent saw it as a draw.
Forty-six percent of uncommitted voters said their opinion of Obama got better tonight.
Sixty-eight percent of uncommitted voters think Obama would make the right decisions about the economy. Forty-one percent think McCain would.
Watch how the polling moves over the next few days.
Well known, well respected, been around for a while.
University of Washington Statistics Professor
I know and respect him. Good guy. I like his numbers.
Watch out these numbers shift over the next three days; it will take three full days for the numbers to reflect tonight's debate.
Remember -- it's ELECTORAL VOTE that matters. One vote is all it takes (except in two states) to win that state. National polls don't mean anything, not really. This is 50 state races for President.
Use this post as an OPEN THREAD for electoral politics. Also talk Senate and Congressional races.
Update 10:15 pm:
The above snap poll confirms Sen. Barack Obama is going to win the election.
Obama base: 40%
McCain base: 35%
Over the next month that 25% will break out...
With one week left the numbers will be:
- Obama needs to win at 60% to win the election.
- Or the Bradley Effect (people saying they'll vote for a Black, but not) gets him.
- Or voter fraud by Republicans (caging, electronic vote flipping, voter ID, and so on)
The final 10% undecideds will break out the same as the snap poll 40/25:
The last 35% of the 10% undecideds splits the same, 25/10 which gives us a total of:
of the final 10%
TEN PERCENTAGE POINTS nationally over McCain expressed in 50 individual states, some of which Obama will blow out by 30-40 points, others where he will lose by 30-40 points, translates into a 100 point Electoral Vote victory, roughly 370 EV for Obama.
Sen. Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States.