Another political friend from back in 2004 is the Votemaster at http://www.electoral-vote.com He's a brilliant guy and has done a fantastic job on his site of calculating and presenting polling and electoral data. It should be a regular stop on your intertube surfing as we head into the final 100 days of this election. Need more assurances? Check this out.
"The site also covered the 2006 midterm elections and correctly predicted the winner of all 33 Senate races that year."
This week the Votemaster had some great reviews of the global tour bump.
Yesterday Barack Obama said that he expected his polls to drop since he hadn't been campaigning for a week (as if he didn't know the effect of having Americans watch 200,000 Germans cheering and waving American flags). To his "surprise," Obama got a bounce in the national polls. Gallup has him ahead 48% to 41% (was 45% to 43% before the trip). Rasmussen has him ahead 49% to 43% (was tied at 46%). An NBC/WSJ poll has Obama on top 47% to 41%. A 5% win in the popular vote will almost assuredly result in a landslide in the electoral college.Make sure you click around his site. He has great data on the presidential race but also a terrific senate and house pages. His downloadable data page will warm the heart of the wonkiest wonks and the most hard core politicos among us (you know who you are).
John Weaver, for many years Mcain's top political strategist, said it was a big mistake for McCain to dare Obama to go to Iraq, only to have the country's Prime Minister endorse Obama's plan to withdraw U.S. troops in 2010. It is going to be very hard for McCain to continue to argue that American troops should be in Iraq for 100 years if the elected Iraqi government doesn't want them there. McCain can probably change his position without being accused of flip-flopping (e.g., by saying something like "If the Iraqis now feel we have secured their country, it is fine to leave") but it will be very difficult for McCain to claim he has better judgement than Obama on foreign affairs.