Sunday, September 21, 2008

The Numbers That Say McCain Loses in November...

48 > 14

A CBS News/NY Times poll released on the 17th says that 48% of voters think "the economy and jobs" is the most important issue in deciding whom to support for President. 14% think "terrorism and national security" is most important, followed by 10% concerned about "gas prices and energy" and 10% worried about "health care". Only 8% of registered voters cited the Iraq war.

Conventional wisdom says that Democrats win when elections are about the economy and Republicans win when elections are about national security (quote from 2008.01.23):
Voter attention is now on the U.S. economy, buffeted by a housing market that is threatening to tip the country into an election-year recession.

"If the economy is sliding into a recession that would favor the Democrats," said Andy Smith, political science professor at the University of New Hampshire.

But a campaign about national security would favor Republicans, he said, particularly if Republicans nominate McCain, a former Vietnam prisoner of war and a critic of Bush's handling of the Iraq war.
This is not a reason to get complacent. It is a reason to feel better about the upcoming election.