From the 2008 GOP H.S. Year Book

wow is this crew white or what? (and except for Caribou Barbie, they are pretty darn OLD too)

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The Only Way McCain Wins (and how to stop him)

The Current Polls & Predictions
With one week to go, here's an overview of my various sources and what they say about the upcoming election. Everything points to a significant Obama victory next week, unless something very odd or untoward happens.

Pollster.com EV map:

Image Source: Pollster.com, 2008.10.27

Pollster.com basically takes all the poll data from all the polls and displays it as an EV map. Yellow states are "tossups", while lightly colored (blue and red) states "lean" to their respective parties. The critical piece of information here is the number in the upper right next to the dark blue legend square: 268. Current polling shows Obama has "strong" polling numbers representing 268 EVs, leaving him only two short of election to pick up over the the "lean democratic" and "tossup" states, while McCain must run the table of all "lean republican", "tossup", AND "lean democratic" states to win.

Electoral-vote.com map:

Image Source: Electoral-Vote.com, 2008.10.27

Electoral-vote.com shows us basically the same data in a slightly different form. Pure white states (MT and ND) are "tied". Light blue and red states (CO, VA, OH, SD, WV) are "weak" for their respective parties while light blue and red outlined states (FL, NV, NC, AZ, GA) are "barely" for their respective parties. You'll notice that the outlined and white states are the "tossup" states in the pollster.com map. Behind the scenes these sites use very similar data, and the conclusion is almost the same. Electoral-vote.com says Obama has 260 EVs locked up in "strong" states, with another 57 "weak" and 58 "barely" to McCain's 134 "strong", 8 "weak" and 15 "barely", with 6 EVs "tied" in MT and ND. Again, Obama needs to pick up very few EVs (10) from the entire range of "weak democratic", "barely democratic", "tied", "barely republican" and "weak republican" in order to win.

Five-thirty-eight.com EV map:

Image Source: FiveThirtyEight.com, 2008.10.27

Five thirty eight.com is not just reporting aggregated polling data. The FAQ explains how they are different:

Firstly, we assign each poll a weighting based on that pollster's historical track record, the poll's sample size, and the recentness of the poll. More reliable polls are weighted more heavily in our averages.

Secondly, we include a regression estimate based on the demographics in each state among our 'polls', which helps to account for outlier polls and to keep the polling in its proper context.

Thirdly, we use an inferential process to compute a rolling trendline that allows us to adjust results in states that have not been polled recently and make them ‘current’.

Fourthly, we simulate the election 10,000 times for each site update in order to provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes based on a historical analysis of polling data since 1952. The simulation further accounts for the fact that similar states are likely to move together, e.g. future polling movement in states like Michigan and Ohio, or North and South Carolina, is likely to be in the same direction.

Five thirty eight.com uses statistical techniques in an attempt to determine which polls are more valid than others, and to extract trend information. Using the processed data, they run Monte Carlo simulations to "predict" the outcome of 10000 simulated elections. The aggregated information from those simulation runs provides them with a "most likely" result, a probability of Democratic or Republican victory, and an estimate of the popular vote. As of 27 October, the most likely result is 351 EV for Obama and 187 EV for McCain, a 96.7% chance that Obama will win, and a popular vote split of 52.4% for Obama to 46% for McCain.

Electoral-vote.com, all EV polling:

Image Source: Electoral-Vote.com, 2008.10.27

Electoral-vote.com also shows us two graphs. This lead graph provides the total EV count polling to each party. Obama has polled above 270 EVs very consistently since he clinched the nomination.

Electoral-vote.com, EVs polling more than 5% only:

Image Source: Electoral-Vote.com, 2008.10.27

This second graph shows only those EVs which poll a 5% or greater difference. Even with that, Obama is above the 270 needed to win the presidency.

Pollster.com gives us a national trend graph showing all their polls as individual dots with a line showing a smoothed average trend. I've included three versions to show just how tricky this kind of analysis can be. The sensitivity of the smoothing indicates how quickly the trendline responds to changes. More sensitive means more quickly. However, more sensitive also means more vulnerable to noise in the data.

Pollster.com More Sensitive Smoothing

Image Source: Pollster.com, 2008.10.27

Pollster.com Medium Smoothing

Image Source: Pollster.com, 2008.10.27

Pollster.com Less Sensitive Smoothing

Image Source: Pollster.com, 2008.10.27

Notice how the trendlines are more jagged in the "more sensitive" graph and how they smooth out as the sensitivity goes down. The "medium" and "less sensitive" graphs show us a pretty consistent picture of Obama running about 50% and McCain somewhere in the 42-43% range. The "more sensitive" graph suggests a hint that Obama's support is weakening and that we might be seeing a significant narrowing (perhaps as much as 3%) of the national gap.

That's not very likely, especially not this close to the election. The gap changes we see now are most likely to be undecideds (although how you can be undecided 19 1/2 months into a 20 month campaign is a little beyond me) making up their minds at the last minute, NOT people suddenly deciding that the candidate they're with has become unacceptable to them. If the change continues over the next couple of days, it may represent an actual shift, but I wouldn't call it a real trend until Thursday and then only if it starts to show up in the less sensitive trend analysis. If I had the actual numbers to play with I might be able to call it sooner, but I don't.

With all the polling and trending suggesting bad national news for McCain, how does he win the election? Watch the video for the answer.

Source Video: Heroes, Season One, Episode "Landslide"
Video Production: Evan Robinson, Group News Blog

Obviously I'm not suggesting that John McCain can win the election by finding an 8-year old African-American child with the power to "talk" to computers. But I am suggesting that the most believable way McCain wins the presidency in 2008 is through election fraud.

Voting Fraud
According to the Brad Blog, we are already seeing "vote flipping" happening during early voting in West Virginia and Texas. Candidate names disappeared from the final review screen in South Carolina. We've even seen at least one case of vote flipping from R to D in Tennessee (although that report appears to be exaggerated -- at least)!

Ultimately, computer voting using machines created by private companies expose our democracy to unacceptable risks. Companies making electronic voting machines have committed to deliver votes for one side. Unvetted software has been installed to run elections. Computers count votes in secret and many make meaningful re-counts impossible.

Vote Suppression
Every election cycle, Republicans launch massive efforts at suppressing voter turnout. They do so by a variety of methods, including not mailing out ballots, circulating flyers with false information about election dates or locations or requirements, purging voter rolls, issuing spurious challenges to voters on election day, even threatening voters with deportation or arrest.

It has been part of the conservative (aka Republican) canon since at least 1980 that low turnout benefits the Right:

How To Stop McCain From Winning

The only way John McCain wins in 2008 is to cheat. Don't let him. We must win by an overwhelming majority in order to take the election. No 2000-style sportsmanship in 2008 if the election is stolen.

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This I Believe: Our Noble, Essential Decency

(Robert Heinlein, "Our Noble, Essential Decency", from This I Believe (1952))

I'm writing this before the election for two reasons.

1) Because I don't want anybody saying I was influenced by winning or losing the election. That's not what this is about. And

2) Because I want everybody who hasn't voted yet to remember the stakes.

The above recording is Robert Heinlein in 1952, reading his personal declaration on Edward R. Murrow's old radio show, This I Believe:

I am not going to talk about religious beliefs but about matters so obvious that it has gone out of style to mention them. I believe in my neighbors. I know their faults, and I know that their virtues far outweigh their faults.

Take Father Michael, down our road apiece. I’m not of his creed, but I know that goodness and charity and loving kindness shine in his daily actions. I believe in Father Mike. If I’m in trouble, I’ll go to him. My next door neighbor’s a veterinary doctor. Doc will get out of bed after a hard day to help a stray cat—no fee, no prospect of a fee. I believe in Doc.

I believe in my townspeople. You can knock on any door in our town, say “I’m hungry,” and you’ll be fed. Our town is no exception. I found the same ready charity everywhere. For the one who says, “The heck with you, I’ve got mine,” there are a hundred, a thousand, who will say, “Sure pal, sit down.” I know that despite all warnings against hitchhikers, I can step to the highway, thumb for a ride, and in a few minutes a car or a truck will stop and someone will say, “Climb in, Mack. How far you going?”

I believe in my fellow citizens. Our headlines are splashed with crime. Yet for every criminal, there are ten thousand honest, decent, kindly men. If it were not so, no child would live to grow up. Business could not go on from day to day. Decency is not news. It is buried in the obituaries, but it is a force stronger than crime.

I believe in the patient gallantry of nurses, in the tedious sacrifices of teachers. I believe in the unseen and unending fight against desperate odds that goes on quietly in almost every home in the land. I believe in the honest craft of workmen. Take a look around you. There never were enough bosses to check up on all that work. From Independence Hall to the Grand Coulee Dam, these things were built level and square by craftsmen who were honest in their bones.

I believe that almost all politicians are honest. For every bribed alderman, there are hundreds of politicians—low paid or not paid at all—doing their level best without thanks or glory to make our system work. If this were not true, we would never have gotten past the Thirteen Colonies.

I believe in Rodger Young. You and I are free today because of endless unnamed heroes from Valley Forge to the Yalu River. I believe in—I am proud to belong to—the United States. Despite shortcomings—from lynchings, to bad faith in high places—our nation has had the most decent and kindly internal practices and foreign policies to be found anywhere in history.

And finally, I believe in my whole race—yellow, white, black, red, brown—in the honesty, courage, intelligence, durability, and goodness of the overwhelming majority of my brothers and sisters everywhere on this planet. I am proud to be a human being. I believe that we have come this far by the skin of our teeth—that we always make it just for the skin of our teeth—but that we will always make it, survive, endure.

I believe that this hairless embryo with the aching oversized braincase and the opposable thumb—this animal barely up from the apes—will endure, will endure longer than his home planet, will spread out to the other planets—to the stars and beyond—carrying with him his honesty, his insatiable curiosity, his unlimited courage, and his noble essential decency. This I believe with all my heart.

In a week, Americans will finish voting. We believe that "our side" is the correct one to lead the country forward. So do "they". Most of us are sincere in our beliefs and think that those who disagree are merely misguided, not evil. The vast majority of us want the best for the country and our fellow citizens.

Many of us on the Left feel that the elections of both 2000 and 2004 were stolen, and we fear (with good reason) that 2008 may go the same way. We fear that Americans will not elect an African-American to the White House, or that a President-elect Obama will be assassinated, or that there will be violence during his term in office.

Some on the Right fear that international terrorism will somehow "win" if McCain is defeated, or that the evils of socialism will come to America, or that good Christians will be given the Mark of the Beast. They fear that "leftist radicals" will riot if Obama is defeated, or that an obstructionist Congress will halt what they believe is progress in the Middle East or Afghanistan or in fighting illegal immigration.

We are all Americans. We are all confined to this small globe we call Earth. Those of us who are entitled to vote next week will make a decision that will have world-changing effects on every soul on the planet.

We are all in this together. All of us -- "yellow, white, black, red, brown", as Heinlein said -- will suffer the consequences and share the achievements of the next four years. And the next eight years. And the next century, which will be dominated in no small part by decisions we American citizens make in the next seven days.

Regardless of the outcome of the election, regardless of the individual gains and losses, regardless of the emotions left behind in the wake of broken promises, missed expectations, and suspected irregularities, we must remember...

Our Noble, Essential Decency

and that

We Are All in This Together

as we lurch forward toward our preferred futures.

Breathe.

Vote.

Endure.

Sustain.

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Hate Talk Express

Haaretz: McCain attacks on Obama creeping toward 'hate speech':

"The manner in which Senator McCain, Governor [Sarah] Palin and their supporters refer to Senator Obama is creeping toward hate speech," Rabbis for Obama said in a statement on Thursday.
...
"They [the McCain campaign] recently used a uniformed sheriff to warm up the crowd at a rallyby emphasize the senator's middle name," the rabbis wrote. "At another event Senator McCain seemed shocked when one of his supporters stated that Senator Obama was an 'Arab.' That false belief is the fruit of the McCain campaign's emphasizing Senator Obama's middle name."

The rabbis also accused Vice Presidential candidate Palin of asserting that "Senator Obama pals around with terrorists," a claim that denounced as "false" and "built on three distortions and a lie."
...
"They [Republican Jews] know that in the Jewish community this is the moral equivalent of crying fire in a crowded theater," the liberal rabbis said, adding: "The RJC approach harkens back to the classic Republican red baiting tactics of Joe McCarthy and Richard Nixon from the early fifties."

Now I'll tell ya'. If there are any people who know from hate talk, it's them Jew-ish rab-bis. They has been hate-talked to foah ye-ahs.

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"I'm entitled to THE math"

Just before the 2006 midterm elections, Karl Rove said:

I add up to a Republican Senate and Republican House. You may end up with a different math but you are entitled to your math and I'm entitled to THE math.

It didn't turn out that way:

The Senate election was part of the Democratic sweep of the 2006 elections, in which no Congressional or gubernatorial seat held by a Democrat was won by a Republican. Democratic candidates defeated six Republican incumbents: Rick Santorum (Penn.), Mike DeWine (Ohio), Lincoln Chafee (R.I.), Jim Talent (Mo.), Conrad Burns (Mont.), and George Allen (Va.). Incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Lieberman (Conn.) lost an August Democratic primary challenge but won re-election as an independent. Democrats kept their two open seats in Minnesota and Maryland, and Republicans held onto their lone open seat in Tennessee. In Vermont, Bernie Sanders, an independent, was elected to the seat left open by independent Senator Jim Jeffords.

With a mere 1.6 million seconds to go (about 19 days) until the 2008 election, Dick Morris has come out with his prediction for the electoral map:

If the election took place this week, it would be a wipeout of major proportions. Even McCain‘s home state of Arizona has to be classified as leaning toward Obama. McCain, as of now, can be certain of carrying just eight states with a combined total of only 36 electoral votes.

Morris predicts 396 EVs for Obama to a mere 110 EVs for McCain, and only 36 EVs as solidly in McCain's pocket compared to 355 EVs solidly for Obama.

Dick Morris can hardly be considered a solid Democratic partisan. He helped Governor Bill Clinton get re-elected in Arkansas and was a successful Republican strategist before returning to work for President Bill Clinton's second presidential campaign and has since said he'd leave the country if Hillary were elected in 2008. But he's gone waaaay out on a limb to suggest that Arizona and Arkansas are leaning and solidly for Obama and South Carolina and Georgia are presently tossups. It's possible that he's trying a Hail Mary to get out in front of Republican disaster so he can later claim to have been the first to see just how bad it was going to be. Or he might be setting up a position where he can claim that X campaign element he suggested has improved McCain's situation. Or maybe his professional dominatrix told him how it would all turn out.

A More Solid Set of Projections
I've previously mentioned that I follow FiveThirtyEight.com and Electoral-Vote.com. Pollster.com is also good. As of 2008.10.14, FiveThirtyEight's map looks like:

While Electoral-Vote.com's looks like:

There are minor variations, but both show Obama in the 355-360 EV range whereas Pollster.com shows Obama at 313 EVs (but shows 70 tossups -- a far higher number than either FiveThirtyEight or Electoral-Vote):

Right now, polling shows us a rockslide (less than a landslide, but getting there) for Obama. Trends are also encouraging for the Democratic party. Electoral-Vote shows us two different graphs, with and without "leans" EVs:

Even without leaners, Electoral-Vote has Obama over 270 EVs. Pollster.com's trend is harder to read, but shows us more information:

You can see that polls are coming thicker and faster now than earlier in the cycle, and that we're starting to see some real clumping of results and divergence between the red (Republican) and the blue (Democratic).

It looks good for the Democratic party. Republicans are starting to abandon states they would normally win easily. The national Republican organization is beginning to pull money from the national race to shore up state candidates long thought "safe".

The only game-changer left that I can see working for McCain is a successful terrorist attack and even that is unlikely to succeed, since more and more Americans see Obama as more trustworthy in a crisis.

She's warming up in the wings....

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"Governor Sarah Palin abused her power"

The Troopergate report was released today:

Sarah Palin violated the trust Alaskans placed in her as their governor when she fired a state official who had refused to dismiss her ex-brother-in-law from his job as a state trooper, according a legislative report released Friday night.

The long-awaited report into a scandal that’s become known as “Troopergate” found that Palin, the Republican vice presidential nominee, fired the state’s public safety commissioner, Walt Monegan, partly because he refused to fire Palin’s ex-brother-in-law, Mike Wooten, who was locked in a bitter custody battle with Palin’s sister, Molly McCann.

From the report:

For the reasons explained in section IV of this report, I find that Governor Sarah Palin abused her power by violating Alaska Statute 39.52.110(a) of the Alaska Executive Branch Ethics Act. Alaska Statute 39.52.110(a) provides:

"The legislature reaffirms that each public officer holds office as a public trust, and any effort to benefit a personal or financial interest through official action is a violation of that trust."

This report is the end result of a process begun by "a unanimous bi-partisan vote of the Alaska Legislative Council taken on July 28, 2008". Nineteen people were interviewed, ten "individuals were properly served [either personally serviced by a process server or whose attorney accepted on their behalf], and the person failed to appear". Number nine on that list is "Todd Palin — The First Gentleman". "Out of deference to her position, no subpoena was issued for Governor Sarah Palin".

Needless to say, neither Todd Palin nor Sarah Palin provided information to the investigator.

Until Todd Palin complies with the legally issued subpoena (and he should be found in contempt until he does so) and Sarah Palin cooperates with the investigation as she has previously agreed, McCain and Palin should be asked "do you believe in the rule of law and in complying with legally issued subpoenas" at every opportunity.

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Palin's Plunge in Polls — 47% Concerned About McCain Finishing a Single Term

September 7:

Talk about a bounce! Via USA Today, among likely voters, John McCain has a 10-point post-convention lead over Barack Obama, the only such lead since January.

Most important is the enthusiasm that Sarah Palin has generated on the ticket — quite a surge

September 16:

On the question of Sarah Palin's favorability, here are the numbers by gender:

Women: Favorable 37%, Unfavorable 36% [+1]
Men: Favorable 48%, Unfavorable 27% [+21]

Among women, it's a wash. Among men, it's a blowout.

And on the question of whether the Palin choice makes voters more or less likely to vote for McCain, here's the gender split:

Women: More Likely 25%, Less Likely 28% (-3)
Men: More Likely 29%, Less Likely 21% (+8)

Now guess which group has changed its vote. In the August poll, women favored Obama 53%-38%; now they favor him ... 54%-38%. Almost identical numbers.

It's the men who've switched -- 48%-45% Obama in August, 53%-40% McCain now.

September 19:

(Image: Al Rodgers, found at Daily Kos)

September 20:

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin blew onto the national political scene like a surprise hit movie - with an exciting script, a new landscape, a fresh face - that suddenly everyone wanted to see and talk about.
...
But now that the Republican vice presidential candidate has been seen and heard by millions - and parodied on "Saturday Night Live" before millions more - a question has been raised about the "Palin Effect." While GOP loyalists apparently still love the movie, is it starting to wear thin on the rest of America, particularly the legions of middle-of-the-road voters?

"Is she a one-hit wonder? Unless she does something radically different from what she's currently doing, yes," Cal State Sacramento political communications Professor Barbara O'Connor said this week. She said that in the 23 days since Palin was named the GOP vice presidential choice, her script has been a limited and increasingly predictable one. "It's fine to say she needed some time to get her footing ... but we're well past that."

October 2:

Public Policy Polling surveyed four states immediately after the Republican convention and then again three weeks later. In those states, Gov. Sarah Palin's favorability has dropped by a net average of 12 points, and Sen. Barack Obama's standing in the horse race has improved by an average of seven points.

October 2:

...public assessments of Sarah Palin's readiness have plummeted, and she may now be a drag on the Republican ticket among key voter groups, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll

October 7:

(Graph: Evan Robinson, Group News Blog, Data: Alaska Daily News, 2008.10.07)

In recent Alaska polling, Sarah Palin's negatives have more than doubled since the end of August. Her positives have dropped more than 15 points. In Alaska.

Like Hubris said:

Why does it matter?

Because 47% of the electorate worry that John McCain would fail to complete even one term:

It's one of the largest age gaps between presidential candidates in American history.

Republican Sen. John McCain is 72, a skin cancer survivor, and would be the oldest man sworn in for a first term as president. His opponent, Democratic Sen. Barack Obama, is 47 and the fourth-youngest major party nominee.

A new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. Poll finds that may be a political liability for McCain. Nearly half of the Americans surveyed, 47 percent, are concerned that McCain would not finish a four-year term as president in good health.

Put Palin's plunging polled positive prospects (I hate it when I get stuck on 'P') alongside the electorate's concern's about McCain's health and welfare, and you have a lot of people worried about Palin landing in the Oval Office. Selecting Palin as the VP may prove to have been the death-knell for McCain's candidacy:

THOUGHTS ON SARAH PALIN'S RNC SPEECH - In a word, nauseating. Gov. Sarah Palin, who we are being led to believe is a 'conservative's conservative,' had the opportunity to outline her policies in a clear and coherent fashion. She had the opportunity to share her vision of America, and how starkly it contrasts to the socialist vision of Barack Obama. Instead, we got sarcasm, whining, and just plain old nastiness. The partisan hacks in attendance ate it up with a spoon, of course; but I can't help but feel that 75% of America was watching and thinking 'this is Dick Cheney in a skirt,' only nowhere near as shrewd. We got the tired neo-con lines about terrorism, Islam, protecting poor little ole' Israel, so on and so forth. Absent a 9-11 type disaster sometime in the next 63 days (always a possibility, I suppose), that is not going to sell in the year 2008. Not a chance, as most Americans have woken up to the GOP fear mongering, which is why Obama's pie-in-the-sky rhetoric of 'change' and 'hope' is working as well as it is with the still-quite-ignorant masses.

I don't think I need add anything more.

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No More Clowns: McCain v. McCain: The Bailout

(Video Source: The Daily Show, 2008.10.02; Text & Added Audio: Evan Robinson, Group News Blog)

John McCain, in a sequence put together by The Daily Show, demonstrates his exquisite command of both sides of the argument on the bailout bill.

Aren't TiVo and transcoding wonderful?

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If He Can Give That Speech to Every American, It's Over!

America, we cannot turn back. Not with so much work to be done. Not with so many children to educate, and so many veterans to care for. Not with an economy to fix and cities to rebuild and farms to save. Not with so many families to protect and so many lives to mend. America, we cannot turn back. We cannot walk alone. At this moment, in this election, we must pledge once more to march into the future. Let us keep that promise - that American promise - and in the words of Scripture hold firmly, without wavering, to the hope that we confess.

I Believe!

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Plot Against Obama "no credible threat"

What We're Told
According to various news reports, three suspects were arrested Sunday. Erratic driving, a suspended driver's license, and a vehicle rented by someone else led to the first arrest, followed by two more upon questioning the first suspect. The three men, Tharin Gartrell, Shawn Adolf, and Nathan Johnson, were all high on meth when arrested. The initial arrest also netted two scoped rifles, a spotting scope, ammunition,two wigs, camouflage clothing, a bulletproof vest, two walkie-talkies, 4.4 grams of meth, and 3 fake IDs.

One or more of the men may have ties to white supremacists, although whether the ties are significant or just assumed because they were wearing swastikas or totenkopf insignia is not clear.


Security Response
Officials say there was "no credible threat" against Obama. Although the men made verbal threats against Obama and racist remarks concerning the White House, the plans were "more aspirational, perhaps, than operational," said US Attorney Troy Eid. "The law recognizes a difference between a true threat -- one that can be carried out -- and the reported racist rantings of a drug addict."


Ballistics Analysis

The real question is, could they have killed Obama with those weapons? It's been publicly released that the plan was to shoot Obama with a .22-250 sighted for 750 yards from a high vantage point.

Update: a New York Post story indicates the plotters also had a .270.

I did a little research. In consideration of the potential for misuse, I will deliberately alter some of the data I provide by enough to make it useless but not enough to reduce the clarity of the argument. I will also not link to any of my calculations, just the base data from which they were derived.

Although the corporate media persists in referring to the weapons found as "sniper rifles", the .22-250 is not a round any sniper would choose for a 750 yard shot. The most common rounds used by sharpshooters and snipers in western armies are probably the .308 (aka 7.62mm) or .50. Ballistically the .22-250 is vastly inferior to either the .308 or the .50.

At 750 yards the .22-250 firing a 60g bullet with a 3600 fps muzzle velocity will have a terminal velocity of about 1338 fps and deliver about 240 ft-lbs of energy.

At 750 yards the .308 firing a 180g bullet with a 2600 fps muzzle velocity will have a terminal velocity of about 1250 fps and deliver about 625 ft-lbs of energy.

Update: At 750 yards the .270 firing a 150g bullet with a 2822 fps muzzle velocity will have a terminal velocity of about 1900 fps and deliver about 1250 ft-lbs of energy. This particular load and round is very efficient.

At 750 yards the .50 firing a 660g bullet with a 2800 fps muzzle velocity will have a terminal velocity of about 1800 fps and deliver about 4800 ft-lbs of energy.

Tw0 hundred and forty ft-lbs is enough if you can put it in the right place. It's about 3/4 the impact from a point-blank .45 handgun. Assuming a 6 mph (roughly what's expected Thursday night) crosswind, a shooter would have to hold more than a yard to one side of and more than 12 feet above the intended target. Actually, above the intended target's position between 1 and 1 1/4 seconds in the future. A great shooter could do it, but it would take a great shooter.

Anyone who's using meth isn't going to make that shot. Meth use commonly raises blood pressure and heart rate and often produces tremors. None of these improve accuracy. Moving up to the .308 or the .50 means that less accuracy is required because there's more energy imparted to the target. If these guys were carrying a Barrett 82A1/M107 I think their threat would have been taken a lot more seriously.

On the basis of ballistic analysis alone, I believe that we have to conclude that these guys have seen Shooter a few too many times. (In the spirit of full disclosure, I did not see the movie, but I did read the book.)

Update: The report that they were carrying a .270 is considerably more worrisome. It would still take a fantastic shot, and it seems unlikely that a meth-head could make it. However, the .270 allows much more room for error. If the NYPost report is accurate, I would feel much less certain about their failure even if they managed to get a shot off. It appears to me that the local security forces may have downplayed this event.

Liquid Explosives Plot Response

It might be instructive to consider this threat and compare the response to the "liquid explosives" threat of 2006. A group of suspects was infiltrated by UK police and arrested, possibly on the insistence of the US.

The alleged plot (eight accused conspirators [out of 24 arrested] are on trial awaiting a jury verdict) involved creating explosives on board an airliner from multiple sources -- specifically hydrogen peroxide, sulfuric acid, and acetone (nail polish remover). By generating their own explosive on board, the alleged plotters planned to bypass security precautions in place. Several of the accused are alleged to have created "martyrdom videos", but have claimed that they were part of a documentary film. Three of the eight have pled guilty to one or more charges, and the jury has been deliberating for over a month on the remainder of the charges.

Skeptics expressed concern over both the reality and the feasibility of the alleged plot. There were no plane tickets, many of the alleged conspirators didn't even have passports (and thus could not have gotten on the transatlantic flights they were allegedly targeting), and there are significant questions about the feasibility of generating their own explosives on-board.

Photo Credit: Tim Boyle/Getty Images from the MSNBC website

Despite these concerns, there was an immediate ban on the carrying of liquids on board airliners. Given that the concern was the combination of several precursors into an effective explosive, the random mixing of confiscated materials in barrels seemed perverse.

More than two years later, without anyone demonstrating the feasibility of the alleged explosive plot, without a conviction after a month or more of deliberation, while the supposed explosive precursors are randomly mixed by TSA in trash barrels, we are still unable to carry water onto airplanes.


Threat Assessment & Response

It seems to me that we have a problem with threat assessment or response.

First, consider the initial official response. The response to the Obama plot was "no problem". The response to the Airliner plot was "the sky is falling! the sky is falling!" Is this difference a valid distinction between the realistic threats? No. Is it a valid distinction between the perceived threat? No. The Obama plotters appear to have motive and means. Whether they could actually achieve their aims is questionable, but they had an actually lethal weapon and some kind of a plan. They represent an immediate potential threat. The Airline plotters (who were under surveillance by the police) had no effective weapon, no tickets, and no access to their targets. They may have been a potential threat, but there was no immediacy.

Second, consider the actual threat levels. Neither of these plots was going to succeed. The Obama plotters could never have made the shot necessary. The airliner plotters were never going to manage to create a functional explosive on-board.

Third, consider the responding agencies. The Obama plotters are being assessed by the US Secret Service and local police agencies. The Airliner plotters were assessed (as little to no threat) by the local police, but re-assessed (as an enormous immediate threat) by national intelligence agencies and political figures.

Upon examining these points, I think a valid question arises: is there a political dimension to these responses?


Updated: Dave Neiwert @ FDL on the event

Updated: 20080828 10:45am : Added NYPost story, .270 ballistics, and additional conclusion at end of Ballistics Analysis section

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McCain Speaks Out of Both Sides of His Mouth

Photograph: John McCain Wallpaper, John McCain Campaign Website

Photo illustration: Evan Robinson, Group News Blog

John McCain likes to present himself as a truth-telling Maverick who isn't afraid to buck the system or fight the people in Washington DC. He wants you to believe that he has principles, he stands by them, and he'd never, ever, tell you a lie for his own benefit.

But that's just a concocted image. Always has been, always will be. John McCain is either a liar, an opportunist, or so senile that he can't remember what he said from day to day and year to year. He's so unreliable that his own campaign has said that what John McCain says isn't to be taken as official policy of the campaign.

Yes, you heard that right. John McCain does not officially speak for John McCain.

A relatively simple search of the Intartubes will find numerous times when McCain vacillates, backtracks, contradicts himself, says he never said something he just said, and generally fumbles around reality and the truth with all the facility of a drunken leprechaun who's broken his leg, has crutches that aren't the same length, whose shoelaces are tied together, wearing sunglasses so dark he can't see where he's going, at night, on ice.

At Saturday's We The People event in Seattle, Rachel Maddow pointed out that the Democratic Party seems to have an identity problem. They self-identify as "not that!" (where that is the Republican Party's rush to shred the Constitution, commit illegal acts inside and outside the U.S., engage in wanton imperial adventures contravening international law, and ... like that). Rachel believes that the Democratic Party needs it's own identity.

So how about Intellectual Honesty and Consistency for a start? John McCain wavers in the wind. He got his ass kicked in 2000 by a vicious libel spread by George Bush's surrogates, but he embraces George Bush in 2008 when trying to get nominated. He's been tortured and says it's wrong, but he votes to allow the U.S. to torture prisoners.

This election is not just about Barack Obama. It's about John McCain and Barack Obama. And John McCain does not deserve to lead the United States. It's that simple.

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ANNOUNCING: A New Group News Blog Feature—VIDEO

The Group News Blog “Kick-In-The-Chest-Club”
Inductee #1: “Senator” Joe Lieberman

Read first...THEN, CLICK ON THE VIDEO. :)



In late May, when we were in fill in-mode, we experimented with the idea of creating custom video on the Original News Blog, and doggonit--it actually worked! So, now that we've got a whole new thang goin' here at the new place, we're gonna continue this new feature in earnest. Consider it...an expansion of the blog's expression pallette.

You will see from time to time, a custom video here (via YouTube) —sometimes humorous, sometimes angry, but almost all the time, pointed.

"Mash-ups".

Spoofs.

And plain, old visual-aid, ass-whippings of those who maybe need a little more than mere words and still images. Today's installment is the first one, and is presented here, happily.

It's a semi-regular Hall of Shame we'll be bringing to you (probably fort-nightly), called "The Group News Blog Kick-In-The-Chest-Club”. The inaugural member? Connecticut Senator, and pissy, neo-con obstructionist Joe Lieberman. He receives this dubious honor for his over-the-top, whiny, Bush's ass-covering remarks this past week, Re: Iraq.

Fuck. He deserves it for every retrograde bit of faux-somber posturing, and war-pimping he's done—especially since its become clear to any sane person that Iraq was a ghastly mistake, really. But Lieberman this past week opted to collect some serious overtime from his GOP paymasters, as he went above and beyond the call, whinily spouting his pro-war bullshit, and pretty much calling anyone against the war traitors every place he could find an open microphone. He did that this week—this week, when Bush's fellow Repubs began bailing like burned rats, as the bad news from Mesopotamia verified what we all knew to be so. All of us, save for Holy Joe.

Unless that is...he really does know how bad it all is, but just won't dare abandon his butt-buddy Bush...even as truly countless numbers of Iraqis perish...and our soldiers unjustifiably die by the hundred— every...fucking...month.

The fact that his soul-deadening hubris (not sonic, but the state of mind) would move him to this day, to still defend this war...well, Goddamn—there just isn't a chamber of hell hot enough for his ass. His re-election this past November is the black mark on all the good that was done in deposing the GOP Junta of the last ten years, and I fucking wince...wince —when I think about how I felt (and how Steve felt) when that saggy-faced charlatan stood at the victory podium on election night—pleased at what he knew he was gonna do down the road a' piece. Which was fuck progressives royally (he'd been doing it peasant-style for years previous), and never look back.

So, lets all do what we can come the '08 elections and increase the Senate majority enough, so as to render this preening, destructive jerk null and fucking void as a power broker, and even as a pourer of sand in the legislative gears. But for right now? Let's hang him on his every disingenuous word. Let's call bullshit on him every time it needs to be. And as we can't actually beat the living hell out of a standing member of the Senate, let's continue to verbally and multimedia whip...his...ass.

And...kick him in the chest while we're at it too, shall we? Enjoy! :)

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