Health Care Deal Close, and Unicorns and Rainbows for Everyone!

Pelosi says that the senate and house are close to resolving and presenting a final bill. But she says just a few small things remain up for discussion including the public option and abortion provisions... yeah right... just those two teeny tiny issues that are so easy to agree on.

I have to admit I have completely lost hope for the public option. I don't get congress. 75% of americans wanted it. There was plenty of political support for it. But no. we can't seem to get anything that is just plain good for the american people. It was an OPTION folks. We were not asking to mandate a public plan, but offering to give people a chance to choose it and make the insurance companies actually compete for health care dollars. What a bad idea. feh. I am sick and tired of the whole thing.

There's more...

Clowns to the Right of Me, Jokers to the Left

Winding down 2009 is an emotional experience, that is certain. This has been one hell of a roller coaster year. From the heady experience of going to Inaugration with 2,000,000 other people high on hope, to the closing of the restaurant I worked for, to the opening of my own company, money stress, economic collapse, the tea-bagger summer, the wars, the slow disasterous weakening of the health care bill... it has been exhausting.

I don't know about you all, but for me reading about the senate has become one of the saddests and most frustrating things that I do. How can we be getting so little done for american people AND be in charge of the house the senate AND the White House???

And then there are the folks on the right- the racists, the crazies, the confused and the top of the heap are the malicious ones using fear and hate to hold together their diminshing base. Climate denial on the rise, Sarah Palin running around the country whipping up the birthers again, gun toting racists at political rallies... I swear it is enough to drive a progressive off the cliff.

The Nobel speech this week was great. Maybe it is aspirational but I want to believe that this first year was one of transition and then we will really work on the change and progressive improvement part in the coming year. Whatever the case I am more than eager to leave 2009 behind.

There's more...

Alaska! Senator-Elect Mark Begich by 3742 Votes

Mark Begich at banquet. April 7, 2008. photo source unknown.

Fifty-Eight Senators!

Congratulations Team Begich and the Great State of Alaska.

Could there be a recount? Sure.

Would it make a difference?

Nope.

TOAST.

We're going to win Minnesota on the recount.

Then maybe Georgia. Plus pick up one on a Cabinet appointment.

Go baby GO.

There's more...

Joe Must Go

CALL YOUR SENATORS - JOE MUST GO

It's fine if he stays in the caucus with the Democrats. But he must be stripped of his seniority and his Chairmanship of Homeland Security. If for no other reason, because of rank incompetence.

Call your Senator and the Democratic Leadership. Actions have consequences.

Tell Joe Buh-Bye.

That's Change We Can Believe In.

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GEORGIA RUN OFF ELECTION: Critical Information For Overseas Absentee Voters

Georgia Voters overseas, we still need your help in the run off election for the Jim Martin For Senate.

The runoff would be Dec. 2 between Mr. Chambliss (R) and Mr. Martin (D) and would give Democrats a chance to expand their Senate majority after gaining at least five seats on Tuesday.

Here's what you need to know;

Use this SWAB: http://sos.georgia.gov/ELECTIONS/elections/voter_information/SWAB_General08.pdf

Here is the oath you have to sign:
http://sos.georgia.gov/ELECTIONS/elections/voter_information/swab_oath.pdf

Here are the instructions (i.e., what envelopes you need, etc.):
http://sos.georgia.gov/ELECTIONS/elections/voter_information/swab_app.htm

There's more...

Practicing for my Senate Run

What do you need to know to be the Senator from Alaska? The Internet...It's a series of tubes.

[ Find Your Polling Place | Voting Info For Your State | Know Your Voting Rights | Report Voting Problems ]

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Breaking: Republican Senator Ted Stevens (Alaska) GUILTY

Senator Ted Stevens (R-AK). 2005. photo official website.

Guilty Guilty Guilty

In good news to challenger Mark Begich, currently leading by 1% in the polls, Republican Senator Ted Stevens was found GUILTY ON ALL SEVEN CRIMINAL COUNTS.

ABC News

The jury of eight women and four men deliberated for five hours Monday before returning guilty verdicts on all seven counts.

Prosecutors claimed that Stevens accepted $250,000 worth of gifts, primarily from now-defunct oil services company Veco Corp. and its former CEO, Bill Allen. Among the alleged gifts was the value of a home renovation project that transformed the senator's Girdwood, Alaska, home from a quaint cabin to a sizeable house, a $2,600 massage chair and a Viking gas grill.

The defense had said in court that the Stevens family paid more than $160,000 for the renovations, and Stevens testified that some of the gifts were instead loans, and others were left at his home by Allen. The defense contended that anything left off the disclosure forms was merely an oversight.

Each charge carries a maximum five years in prison and $250,000 fine.

Stevens, the longest-serving Republican senator, has been in office since 1968. During his four decades on Capitol Hill, he has become legendary for funneling millions in federal dollars to Alaska, including the "bridge to nowhere" project. Buildings and facilities all across Alaska, including the state's biggest airport, bear Stevens' name.

There's more...

Associated Press

The verdict, coming just days before Election Day, adds further uncertainty to a closely watched Senate race. Democrats hope to seize the once reliably Republican seat as part of their bid for a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

Stevens, 84, was convicted of all seven charges he faced of lying about free home renovations and other gifts he received from a wealthy oil contractor. Jurors began deliberating Wednesday at noon.

Stevens faces up to five years in prison on each count when he is sentenced Jan. 26, but under federal sentencing guidelines, he is likely to receive much less prison time, if any.

The monthlong trial revealed that employees for oil services company VECO Corp. transformed the senator's modest mountain cabin into a modern, two-story home with wraparound porches, a sauna and a wine cellar. Stevens never paid for VECO's work.

The Senate's longest-serving Republican, Stevens said he had no idea he was getting freebies. He said he paid $160,000 for the project and said he believed that covered everything.

Stevens asked for an unusually speedy trial, hoping he'd be exonerated in time to return to Alaska and win re-election. He kept his campaign going and gave no indication that he had a contingency plan in case of conviction.

Despite being a convicted felon, he is not required to drop out of the race or resign from the Senate. If he wins re-election, he can continue to hold his seat because there is no rule barring felons from serving in Congress. The Senate could vote to expel Stevens on a two-thirds vote.

There's more...

This does it for Alaska.

Stevens is out and Begich is in. Although Digby advises caution. She says it isn't a done deal (and has some words about Sarah Palin as well.) I've learned to be careful about arguing with Digby, however in this case I think we will win, simply because I believe people want to go with a winner and want to ride the winning wave. Change is the winning wave and even in Alaska they're smart enough to see that.

Forty years as a US Senator (sworn in Dec 24, 1968), Ted Stevens is currently the longest serving Republican US Senator (see update below.) Widely considered to be also the most corrupt and in the midst of stiff competition for being the stupidest US Senator as well.

Alaska is well rid of him.

We already had his Senate seat counted at 59 Senate seats for us. We need Kentucky, Mississippi or Georgia to break our way to bring us to 60. And then one of the two Maine Senators to change parties, or at least go Independent and caucus with us, to give us 61.

This is a good day.

Though... not for everyone.

Someone really should ask Sarah Palin how she feels about Ted Stevens. *smiles*


Update: Originally I'd written that Stevens was the the longest serving US Senator. As was promptly pointed out in comments, three Democrats have served longer. Sorry. I've corrected this in the original text. In service to America as in much else, Democrats are simply kicking Republican ass.

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Get Out The Vote

All Politics Is Local

Tip O'Neil said that many years ago.

This election, we're seeing an wave of change sweep across the United States at a level which happens roughly every 70-80 years. Yet still, the election is taking place LOCALLY.

Here in Washington State, the fight is different than the fight in New York State, which is different than the fight in California, which is different than Texas or Pennsylvania or Florida or Ohio.

It is GOTV time.

Obama is going to win. We're going to win the Senate in a big way, and run the table in the House.

The question is, HOW BIG WILL BE OUR VICTORY?

All politics is local. It is up to each one of us now through November 4 to

• donate as much money as we can
• call everyone we know
• doorbell for local campaigns, and again,
• donate as much money as we can.

This is the most important election any of us will see in our lifetimes.

I'm not kidding about this. This is the most important election since FDR in 1932, 76 years ago. Another election of this importance won't happen for another full lifetime. All of us voting today with rare exceptions (my three daughters and Sara's daughter, all voting in their first presidential elections) will be passed by the time the next election of this magnitude comes along, say in 2084. (Kyle would be 94.)

It's time to go all in. Whatever you're holding back, throw it on the table.

To the extent we win 10 days from now, we are positioned to set up the next lifetime with a progressive agenda which will determine the future for our grandchildren and great-grandchildren. Every single person we elect matters.

Don't hold anything back.

Get out the vote.

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Election Predictions Open Thread

Voting on Saipan in 1974. photo TTPI archives.

Fifteen Days, Five Predictions

President: Obama wins with 370 electoral votes (100 more than needed)

Senate: 60 Democrats -- includes Lieberman (I-CT) and Sanders (I-VT)

Senate: 50% chance of 61 Democrats (wins in Mississippi and Georgia -- we WILL win at least one -- and possibly Kentucky to give us 62, which would let us dump Lieberman)

Minnesota Senate: Franken wins over incumbent Coleman (R-MN)

Washington House 8th District: Burner wins over incumbent Richert (R-WA08)

These are my election predictions.

Roughly once a generation -- in 1984 with Reagan, in 1964 with LBJ, in 1936 with FDR, there is a massive shift in direction.

The change which is happening with Obama is not just the shift which happens once every generation, but the shift which happens once a lifetime. The last time such a massive shift happened was with FDR. This shift which is happening with Obama will set the direction for the next 70-80 years.

The polls have made clear who will win the election.

• Hominid Views
• Electoral-Vote.com

All that is left is watching the Senate and House races change over to Democratic BLUE as the country continues to shift further and further into a landslide.

Get on the phone.

Call your friends.

Do everything you can these next two weeks to bring this sucker home.

Open Thread for your election predictions.

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Presidental Debate #2: CBS Poll of Undecideds

Obama Wins Debate #2 With Undecided, says CBS News

Polling of 400 uncommitted voters gives victory to Obama.

"SIXTY-EIGHT PERCENT of uncommitted voters think Obama would make the right decisions about the economy."
--CBS News Poll

CBS News

Thirty-nine percent of the 400 uncommitted voters surveyed identified Barack Obama as tonight's winner; 27 percent said John McCain won, while 35 percent saw the debate as a draw.

After the debate, 68 percent of uncommitted voters said that they think Obama will make the right decisions on the economy, compared to 54 percent who said that before the debate. Fewer thought McCain would do so – 49 percent after the debate, and 41 percent before.

Before the debate, 60 percent thought Obama understands voters’ needs and problems; that rose to 80 percent after the debate. For McCain, 35 percent felt he understands voters’ needs before the debate, and 46 percent thought so afterwards.

There is some good news for McCain, who still dominates Obama when it comes to perceptions of readiness to be president. Before the debate, 42 percent thought Obama was prepared for the job, and that percentage rose to 57 percent after the debate. But 80 percent felt McCain was prepared for the job before the debate, and 84 percent thought so afterwards.

This debate was not the blowout Presidential Debate #1 and the Vice Presidential Debate were. However...

Obama got the job done.

This was McCain's last real chance to turn the race around. He failed.

Watch how the polling moves over the next few days.

• Hominid Views
• Electoral-Vote.com

Watch these numbers shift over the next three days; it will take three full days for the numbers to reflect tonight's debate.

Gallop

The nine percentage point lead in Oct. 4-6 tracking matches Obama's highest to date for the campaign, and the highest for either candidate. Obama led McCain by 49% to 40% near the tail end of his international trip in late July. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

Obama has now held a statistically significant lead since Sept. 24-26 polling and has not trailed McCain since Sept. 13-15, roughly coinciding with the intensification of the financial crisis

ELECTORAL VOTE is all that matters.

OPEN THREAD for electoral politics. Also Senate and Congress.

There's more...

Three Raids on the U.S. Economy

Pieter Aertsen (1508-1575). The Adoration of the Shepherds. Oil on Panel. Rijksmuseum, Amsterdam.

Stealing from the Poor, Working Class and Middle Class and
Giving to the Owning Class

This is EXACTLY like Iraq all over again. (Thank you Diane.)

It is a con, a series of lies designed to screw us out of our money.

The Bush/Cheney administration has committed three major thefts on the U.S., to benefit themselves personally, and the richest one percent of Americans.

Many members of the Senate and Congress are directly included. Due to the lack of Campaign Finance Reform, all members of Congress and the Senate (excepting the rare birds who refuse PAC money) have a vested interest in all three of these thefts, as they receive campaign contributions from the OWNING CLASS in exchange for stealing from the U.S. Even the good Democrats, almost all of them, win in this game.

It's a rigged game, everyone plays thanks to Income Tax, and everyone but the richest 1% and Congress, loses.

Here is how it works...


THEFT #1 - TAX REFUND TO THE RICH

The moment Bush/Cheney came into office (on 527 votes in Florida AFTER the Supreme Court stopped the rest of the votes from being counted), they demanded the surplus the United States had in our treasury, be given to the wealthiest Americans in the form of tax rebates. That surplus was there not from the rich; it was there because the middle-class has paid and because President Clinton had managed the country well in a good economy (the Internet boom.)

Bush got his way. (We did not yet know he was a thief... unless you'd read Molly's books.) Taxes were cut for the rich. People like you and I got back a few hundred bucks. The rich got hundreds of thousands to millions and tens of millions of dollars.

It was theft on a grand scale. They stole from the poor, working and the middle-class and gave to the OWNING CLASS with a little extra to the upper class (and not too damn much. The Owning Class want the money for themselves, and fuck the hindmost. Truly, fuck the hindmost. The Owning Class are into anal a lot as well. Something about being tops and bottoms just turns them on, big time. Someone should write a paper. I'm sure there is at least several doctoral thesis' there.)

The TAXES THEFT is now complete. It will expire in a year or so, assuming it isn't renewed, assuming the Democrats don't roll over like puppies when the Republicans give their mating call, "Tax stimulus, tax stimulus..."

Theft #1, the Taxes Theft, along with the war in Iraq, financed entirely Off Budget with emergency appropriations and by stealing from the militaries seed corn, that is by raiding their capital equipment and stored goods without appropriating ANYTHING to replace all of the seed corn or the rapid exit of an entire generation of trained mid-level NCOs and mid-level officers, eliminated the entire surplus and gave us the deficit.

The borrowing also gave us market sector swings which allowed people in the know to make FORTUNES. That is, if you had inside knowledge, even general direction that was CERTAIN of what was planned, you could make FORTUNES... As Cheney's "blind trust" did several years ago when it moved all of Cheney's money out of the dollar and into Euros and off-shore investments, with the exception of course of gold, oil and oil-based stocks which as sectors continue to rise. "Blind trust" my ass.


THEFT #2 -- IRAQ WAR

This theft (on false data and lies) caused:

1. Oil Prices to sky-rocket; personal stock of self, friends, family, and colleagues going UP, including entire market sectors; inflation, gold, euros, and so on; contributions given in return but who the hell needs them when there are direct stock market rewards not to mention (for Cheney) a million-dollar a year salary plus benefits
   
2. Military contracts to cronies, and campaign contributions and campaign support given in return
3. Direct loot through untraceable funds shipped to Iraq; bribes and support given in return, not to mention looting an entire country on military flights sent all over the world
   

That thousands of soldiers died, 50,000 were wounded, and hundreds of thousands if not a million Iraqis have died and been wounded... fuck them.

The rich got richer and the poor got butchered. The purpose of the POOR, WORKING & MIDDLE CLASS, is to go where the UPPER CLASS tells them to go and do what they are told no matter what it is, so that the OWNING CLASS makes money. So mote it be forever and ever, in Allah and Jesus' name, Amen.

Thefts #1 & #2 are fundamentally DONE. (No pun intended.)


THEFT #3 -- REAL ESTATE/BANK FRAUD

The third and final raid is now being completed -- the raid on real estate and the banking system.

The first half of this theft is DONE.

The first half of this theft was a massive run-up of housing prices through fraud.

Property and home prices were intentionally over-stated. This allowed everyone in the financial systems -- the banks, brokerages, hedge funds, savings and loans, EVERYONE -- to make money four to five to 10 to 20 times as properties from homes to commercial real-estate, but especially HOMES were purchased and flipped with over-stated values without any vetting. (Sound familiar?)

Then the properties and the homes sitting on them were reduced to a deed of trust or other financial instrument, which itself was then broken up into strange and weird financial papers which almost no one understood.

Wikipedia

Traditionally, banks lent money to homeowners for their mortgage and retained the risk of default, called credit risk. However, due to financial innovations, banks can now sell rights to the mortgage payments and related credit risk to investors, through a process called securitization. The securities the investors purchase are called mortgage backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDO). This new "originate to distribute" banking model means credit risk has been distributed broadly to investors, with a series of consequential impacts. There are four primary categories of risk involved: credit risk, asset price risk, liquidity risk, and counterparty risk. Each of these risk types is described separately in the background information.

There's more...

These obligations were then washed through multiple financial institutions -- indeed, that was the purpose of these obligations, to wash the underlying non-vetted and poorly secured obligations so no one would truly be responsible when the whole house of cards collapsed -- and sold eventually to EVERYONE, even to the ordinary investor through these new-finagled financial instruments to the point that damn near every bank and indeed, most likely even portions of your 401K, has become vulnerable all the way down.

Part of the reason for making this final theft the theft of home and property values, is the Bush/Cheney administration had already raided the Stock Market through Theft #2. If you failed to see that one coming and moved your 401K to the right stocks, you got hosed.

Worse, the destruction of the U.S. economy had been going on since Theft #1 via the war economy. Normally in a war, we pass taxes. Not this time. This time President Bush told people to go shopping and stole the surplus for the super-rich with so-called tax rebates -- really just taking tax payments made into the system by the middle-class and giving them directly to the mega-rich. Accordingly, the U.S. economy was in a recession already.

The surplus had been stolen. The stock market had been stolen. All that was left was people's homes. So the Bush/Cheney administration set out to steal it as well. Theft #3.

Many people in the middle-class, especially the upper middle-class and even the lower parts of the upper-class, anyone who is not in the OWNING CLASS, knew that their homes, especially any homes purchased in the last five to six years, had not been properly assessed. They didn't care. All they cared about was getting a home. The market was going up, and people wanted in.

This was part of what was good for this theft -- people who have lied on their application, are not quick to complain when things go bad. They worry they too may be called to account for having participated in the great robbing of American wealth. But this theft was planned and executed high above everyone. It was designed and planned to con everyone, leaving everyone out in the cold except the super-rich, the bankers themselves.

The way to sting EVERYONE, is to scare the hell out of everyone. Convince them they are dead meat if they don't do PRECISELY what you say.

In the end, after all the trading and dealing, and after all the fortunes already made in the first half of the Theft #3, only three points matter in the back half:

1. People's homes are vastly over-valued AND the people know they are complicit in the over-valuation.
2. The entire economy is ready to crash because of all the loans to China to finance the war and because we have no surplus due to the war and the tax giveaway -- thefts #1 & #2.
3. And finally, the banks are unstable because their financial core now rests on a pack of real estate and housing valuations which are lies -- the first half of theft #3.

Based on this, the Bush/Cheney administration are scaring the hell out of everyone, and demanding the Middle Class pay out RIGHT FUCKING NOW:

• $250 billion right now
• $100 billion on the say-so of the Treasury secretary (with a report to the President)
• $350 billion on the request of the Treasury secretary with the approval of the President, so long as Congress does NOT veto within 15 days with 2/3 majority; which will NEVER happen.

Or they'll shoot the economy in the head.

'Cause that's how you work a con. SCARE people into shutting up and doing EXACTLY what you say.

At a minimum, the Middle-Class is now on the hook for $350 billion before Bush leaves office.

Probably we're on the hook for all $700 billion because Congress lacks the balls to stop the last $350 billion, especially if Paulson/Bush hit them with the call note say, 20 days before the election.

It takes TWO-THIRDS of BOTH houses of Congress to veto. In other words, the last $350 BILLION is cash we are on the hook for, WHENEVER Bush/Paulson call for it. Period. Full stop.

We've already been screwed with the first half of the con.

This is the second half of Theft #3 -- ripping the money out of the Treasury to pay off the bankers. This is money which has already made fortunes 5-10 times in the rising real estate markets.

Now, that they have made as much money as possible from the housing market on the way up -- and stashed it away -- they are intentionally and deliberately, JUST BEFORE THE ELECTION WHEN EVERYONE WILL PANIC THE MOST (because if they fuck it up, they will get thrown out of office; and the Bush/Cheney people don't care... They're LEAVING office, so they're ripping everything out of the White House and Country they can, all the way down to the wiring in the White House bathrooms).

Now that Bush/Cheney and the OWNING CLASS have made a fortune from the real estate market on the way up... they have pulled the plug, and are going to make a fortune ($700 Billion to be precise, plus interest) ...on the way down.

This is just one more round of "fleece the suckers." This is Theft #3.

Congratulations, and thank you for playing.

• Theft #1 -- TAX REFUND TO THE RICH
• Theft #2 -- IRAQ WAR
• Theft #3 -- REAL ESTATE/BANK FRAUD

If we let Congress pass this bill, if we let Bush/Cheney steal from us one more time...

There will be NO money left for President Obama to put in Health Care, College funding, or help people in there old age with suplemental Medicare or Veteran's Benefits. ALL the money will be gone from people like you and I; Bush is stealing it for the OWNING CLASS.

Four months from now, the richest 1% will own damn near all of the United States, with China, Japan, and the Saudis owning the rest.

You and I will be in debt the rest of our lives, and our children and grandchildren will be DEBT SLAVES to Bush, Cheney, and McCain's children, to pay off the debt.

Is that what you want? Your children working as debt slaves?

Obama will be President In Name Only -- holding the bag for Bush's THEFTS, the largest thefts of any government in history.

This bill must NOT pass.

Everything we have said it needs, the Democrats gave away to the Republicans.

THIS BILL WILL RUIN YOUR FUTURE, the future of your family, the future of your community and country.

• Call your Senators.
• Call Congress (general number.)
• Call your Congress person.
• Here's Roll Call (with look-up for Senate/Congress.)

Call, write, REACH your Senators and Congressman/Congresswoman now (and not by email; they ignore email.)

This is the single most important bill to come before Congress in your lifetime, unless you were alive in December, 1941. It was then that the resolution of WAR passed because it was necessary to fight evil for the future of the world.

It is necessary now that this bill NOT pass, that we NOT give away the next 30 years of our future, just as it was necessary 67 years ago that the United States went to war.

This bill is EVIL. Stop it. Anyway you have to, anyway you can.

Do what it takes. Make. It. Happen.

Vote NO on the Bailout. Vote NO now.

There's more...

Presidential Debate #1: CBS Poll of Undecideds

Obama Wins Debate #1 With Undecided, says CBS News

Polling of 500 uncommitted voters gives a clear victory to Obama.

"SIXTY-EIGHT PERCENT of uncommitted voters think Obama would make the right decisions about the economy."
--CBS News Poll

CBS News

Forty percent of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. Twenty-two percent thought John McCain won. Thirty-eight percent saw it as a draw.

Forty-six percent of uncommitted voters said their opinion of Obama got better tonight.

Sixty-eight percent of uncommitted voters think Obama would make the right decisions about the economy. Forty-one percent think McCain would.

Obama is winning.

Watch how the polling moves over the next few days.

Electoral-Vote.com
Well known, well respected, been around for a while.

Hominid Views
University of Washington Statistics Professor
I know and respect him. Good guy. I like his numbers.

Watch out these numbers shift over the next three days; it will take three full days for the numbers to reflect tonight's debate.

Remember -- it's ELECTORAL VOTE that matters. One vote is all it takes (except in two states) to win that state. National polls don't mean anything, not really. This is 50 state races for President.

Use this post as an OPEN THREAD for electoral politics. Also talk Senate and Congressional races.


Update 10:15 pm:

The above snap poll confirms Sen. Barack Obama is going to win the election.

Obama base: 40%
McCain base: 35%
Uncommitted: 25%

Over the next month that 25% will break out...
Obama: 10%
McCain: 5%
Uncommitted: 10%

With one week left the numbers will be:

Obama: 50%
McCain 40%
Undecided: 10%

• Obama needs to win at 60% to win the election.
• Or the Bradley Effect (people saying they'll vote for a Black, but not) gets him.
• Or voter fraud by Republicans (caging, electronic vote flipping, voter ID, and so on)

Each State is its own election. Obama doesn't need 60% NATIONALLY. He needs 60% in the States he's going to win for certain.

The final 10% undecideds will break out the same as the snap poll 40/25:

Obama 40%
McCain 25%

The last 35% of the 10% undecideds splits the same, 25/10 which gives us a total of:
Obama 65%
McCain 35%
of the final 10%

Which is:
Obama 6.5%
McCain 3.5%

Obama 50+6.5%=56.50%
McCain 40+3.5%=43.50%
------------------------
100.00%

TEN PERCENTAGE POINTS nationally over McCain expressed in 50 individual states, some of which Obama will blow out by 30-40 points, others where he will lose by 30-40 points, translates into a 100 point Electoral Vote victory, roughly 370 EV for Obama.

Sen. Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States.

There's more...

700 Days Without a Contract

One of the great things about the GNB community is all the ideas you all share in the comment threads and in emailing me (us). My recent focus/obsession with the plight of airlines, pilots and air traffic controllers, lead one reader to send me an amazing set of links to blogs written by Controllers and I also found some by pilots.

The reader asked, "Why doesn't the progressive b'sphere ever tune into the frequency of any of the excellent air traffic controller blogs?"

Why indeed? I think it is largely that that are so many outrages, so many evils and incompetencies perpetrated by this administration in the last 8 years and the conservative agenda of the last 30 that it is hard to follow even a small % of the topics that need covering.

While looking around the great blogs she sent me to I found this fact.

Air Traffic Controllers who keep everyone of us safe when we fly have been operating without a contract for over 700 days!

Don Brown from Get the Flick is asking for our help.
Write your senator. ASAP!

Senator _______,

I am writing to ask you to sign on as a cosponsor of S3416 -- The Federal Aviation Administration Employee Retention Act.

The FAA's controllers have been without a contract for over 700 days. Controllers are retiring faster than the FAA can train new-hires. Please help resolve this situation now -- before any more damage is done to our National Airspace System.

Please become a cosponsor of The Federal Aviation Administration Employee Retention Act.

======================

Copy the text above and then click here to find your Senators. Fill in the blanks, sign your name and you’re done. Time yourself. You’ll be done in less that 5 minutes. I promise it won’t hurt.
--Don Brown

Don is a retired controller trying to help his former colleagues and expose all the BS that puts Americans in danger every time we fly. He is a patriot for sure and his blog is quite interesting though at times, very scary.

There's more...

Al Fights Back

Al Franken is starting to hit back in the Minnesota Senate race.

Al is polling 9 points below Coleman but it still isn't Labor Day.

People now know who Al is, his bio, why he's in the race. It's time for a change. The above ad is the first ad of the new strategy. Coleman's been negative on Al for a while. Time for Al to go negative in return.

The Minnesota Senate race is totally winnable.

Coleman's yet another corrupt Republican currently under investigation.

Here is the nonprofit CREW legal watchdog group:

CREW: Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington

CREW FILES ETHICS COMPLAINT AGAINST SEN. NORM COLEMAN OVER QUESTIONABLE RENTAL ARRANGEMENT

Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) filed a complaint with the Senate Select Committee on Ethics asking for an investigation into whether Senator Norm Coleman (R-MN) violated the Senate gifts rule by accepting lodging from Republican operative Jeff Larson.

According to National Journal, in July 2007, Sen. Coleman began paying Mr. Larson $600 per month to rent a portion of a basement apartment in a Capitol Hill townhouse owned by Mr. Larson. After the magazine began making inquiries about the senator’s living arrangement, Sen. Coleman “discovered” that he had failed to pay rent in November 2007 and January 2008, and his wife gave Mr. Larson a personal check for the $1,200. Last year, Sen. Coleman sold Mr. Larson some furniture -- a couch, table and chairs and a desk -- to cover one month’s rent, and Mr. Larson held onto Sen. Coleman’s March rent check for three months, until June 17, before cashing it only days after National Journal began asking questions.

Mr. Larson runs the telemarketing firm FLS Connect, which has been paid over a million dollars by Sen. Coleman’s campaign committees and leadership PAC since 2001. Mr. Larson is also the PAC’s treasurer and FLS has been providing it with office space in St. Paul. In addition, Mr. Larson’s wife, Dorene Kainz, has been working in Sen. Coleman’s St. Paul office, but after National Journal asked about her position, Sen. Coleman’s office announced that she would soon be leaving the office.

The Senate gifts rule generally prohibits members and staff from accepting gifts, but has two exceptions under which they may accept lodging: if based on personal friendship or, as long as the giver is not a lobbyist or foreign agent, if the gift constitutes personal hospitality. Because the relationship between Sen. Coleman and Mr. Larson appears to be more business than personal, the gift would not be permitted under the “personal friendship” exception. Because Mr. Larson does not live in the townhouse, but rents it out to others, he is not hosting Sen. Coleman and “the personal hospitality” exception would not apply.

CREW is asking the Senate Ethics Committee to look into whether or not Sen. Coleman is paying fair market value for the apartment, whether Sen. Coleman would have paid the November 2007 and January 2008 rent had National Journal not raised the non-payment as an issue, whether Sen. Coleman and Mr. Larson had agreed that Mr. Larson would not cash the March 2008 rent check, why Sen. Coleman suddenly made up his back rent after National Journal asked questions about it, and why Sen. Coleman’s office announced that Ms. Kainz would be leaving the senator’s employ after National Journal asked about her role.

CREW’s executive director Melanie Sloan stated, “Few Americans have landlords who sometimes fail to cash their rent checks, ignore unpaid rent, or accept furniture in lieu of rent. That Sen. Coleman has just such a landlord, who also happens to financially benefit from his relationship with the senator creates exactly the sort of appearance of impropriety that undermines the public’s faith in government.” Sloan continued, “Senators must abide by the ethics rules at all times, not just when they get caught flouting them.”

CREW: Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington

Letter: Coleman is not living in substandard conditions

I saw Norm Coleman on television practicing his “Humble is my Middle Name” spin. He modestly bragged that he is saving money by living in an inexpensive little basement rather then blowing a wad on posh digs like all the other high-rolling, spendthrift senators. You got the impression Coleman is a self-sacrificing, average Joe, living in some unbearably dark, dingy little hole-in-the-wall.

Reality; Coleman rents a huge English basement in a million-dollar town house on Capitol Hill for $600 a month. Similar market-value rents are double or triple, according to a watchdog group. Coleman either does not pay rent or pays it in used furniture, which the “landlord” lets Coleman keep.

You have to rather admire the spin masters who have the guts to turn a violation of Senate ethics into a blurb on frugality and humility. Marketing moguls call this “Re-Framing.” Monty Python would refer to this as the “Dead Parrot Defense.” Little Johnnie Howard, ex-Prime Mister of Australia, would call it “noncore promises.” Those of us who were raised on old-fashioned ethics call it dishonesty.

Our economic situations might improve if we could reframe criminal acts and shady deals, but I’m betting that the real average Joe would never get away with it.

Coleman’s “landlord” is a powerful Republican operative in Washington.

According to reports, Coleman has done more than $1.5 million worth of business with this “landlord’s” St. Paul telemarketing firm. Coleman employs the wife of this “landlord,” under her maiden name. That’s a whole lot of cozy back scratching.

Remember...

IOIYAR: It's Okay If You're A Republican.

Or... not.

h/t MyDD.

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John McCain; Lazier than Bush? Or Just Old?

Photo from 4/2/2008 Huffington Post

McCain has missed just under 2/3 of the Senate votes in the past 1.5 years, far more than any other Senator, including Tim Johnson, who was in the hospital with a brain hemorrhage? (h/t to Mike in previous thread for pointing this out)

Missing the votes.

Clearly he has just been too busy eating cake and having picnics with the press. No worries I am sure he will work much harder if he makes it to the White House.

Yeah, right.

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Electoral-Vote.Com

Another political friend from back in 2004 is the Votemaster at http://www.electoral-vote.com He's a brilliant guy and has done a fantastic job on his site of calculating and presenting polling and electoral data. It should be a regular stop on your intertube surfing as we head into the final 100 days of this election. Need more assurances? Check this out.

"The site also covered the 2006 midterm elections and correctly predicted the winner of all 33 Senate races that year."

This week the Votemaster had some great reviews of the global tour bump.

Yesterday Barack Obama said that he expected his polls to drop since he hadn't been campaigning for a week (as if he didn't know the effect of having Americans watch 200,000 Germans cheering and waving American flags). To his "surprise," Obama got a bounce in the national polls. Gallup has him ahead 48% to 41% (was 45% to 43% before the trip). Rasmussen has him ahead 49% to 43% (was tied at 46%). An NBC/WSJ poll has Obama on top 47% to 41%. A 5% win in the popular vote will almost assuredly result in a landslide in the electoral college.

John Weaver, for many years Mcain's top political strategist, said it was a big mistake for McCain to dare Obama to go to Iraq, only to have the country's Prime Minister endorse Obama's plan to withdraw U.S. troops in 2010. It is going to be very hard for McCain to continue to argue that American troops should be in Iraq for 100 years if the elected Iraqi government doesn't want them there. McCain can probably change his position without being accused of flip-flopping (e.g., by saying something like "If the Iraqis now feel we have secured their country, it is fine to leave") but it will be very difficult for McCain to claim he has better judgement than Obama on foreign affairs.

Make sure you click around his site. He has great data on the presidential race but also a terrific senate and house pages. His downloadable data page will warm the heart of the wonkiest wonks and the most hard core politicos among us (you know who you are).

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Legislative Action, Netroots Reaction Needed

The Senate is expected to vote later today or tomorrow on two amendments that would strike a provision in the PEPFAR Aids relief bill that would repeal the HIV ground of inadmissibility.

American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) members are lobbying to try to preserve this important provision in the bill. So should we --

Template to send to your Senators:

Hello, I am constituent from xxx .

I am writing to encourage you to support the appeal of the Ban on HIV+visitors to the US.The Senate is expected to vote later today or tomorrow on two amendmentsthat would strike a provision in the PEPFAR Aids relief bill that wouldrepeal the HIV ground of inadmissibility.

This is not just a problem for the prospective applicant for admission to visit or live in the US. It is a big problem for US Citizens that liveabroad and what to visit home with their HIV+ spouses and their HIV+children. A waiver is required on every visit and, if it is issued, it is only good for 30 days.

Many people are forced to evade the issue by shipping medications - thuscreating the potential of a real problem.Needless to say this is limiting on the US Cit's freedom to travel. The US is only one of 13 nations that Ban HIV+ visitors (Libya, China, Saudi Arabia are some of the others).

China is looking to repeal their restriction. It is well past time we did.

Please vote to repeal the ban.

Update Looks like I was behind the curve in Austin time here, and that this has already be successfully repealed!-- slow gator morning

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FISA Vote Roll Call

Heap praise or burning hot coals as needed.

Vote Counts: YEAs 69 NAYs 28 Not Voting 3
Vote Summary Grouped By Vote Position

YEAs ---69
Alexander (R-TN)
Allard (R-CO)
Barrasso (R-WY)
Baucus (D-MT)
Bayh (D-IN)
Bennett (R-UT)
Bond (R-MO)
Brownback (R-KS)
Bunning (R-KY)
Burr (R-NC)
Carper (D-DE)
Casey (D-PA)
Chambliss (R-GA)
Coburn (R-OK)
Cochran (R-MS)
Coleman (R-MN)
Collins (R-ME)
Conrad (D-ND)
Corker (R-TN)
Cornyn (R-TX)
Craig (R-ID)
Crapo (R-ID)
DeMint (R-SC)
Dole (R-NC)
Domenici (R-NM)
Ensign (R-NV)
Enzi (R-WY)
Feinstein (D-CA)
Graham (R-SC)
Grassley (R-IA)
Gregg (R-NH)
Hagel (R-NE)
Hatch (R-UT)
Hutchison (R-TX)
Inhofe (R-OK)
Inouye (D-HI)
Isakson (R-GA)
Johnson (D-SD)
Kohl (D-WI)
Kyl (R-AZ)
Landrieu (D-LA)
Lieberman (ID-CT)
Lincoln (D-AR)
Lugar (R-IN)
Martinez (R-FL)
McCaskill (D-MO)
McConnell (R-KY)
Mikulski (D-MD)
Murkowski (R-AK)
Nelson (D-FL)
Nelson (D-NE)
Obama (D-IL)
Pryor (D-AR)
Roberts (R-KS)
Rockefeller (D-WV)
Salazar (D-CO)
Shelby (R-AL)
Smith (R-OR)
Snowe (R-ME)
Specter (R-PA)
Stevens (R-AK)
Sununu (R-NH)
Thune (R-SD)
Vitter (R-LA)
Voinovich (R-OH)
Warner (R-VA)
Webb (D-VA)
Whitehouse (D-RI)
Wicker (R-MS)


NAYs ---28
Akaka (D-HI)
Biden (D-DE)
Bingaman (D-NM)
Boxer (D-CA)
Brown (D-OH)
Byrd (D-WV)
Cantwell (D-WA)
Cardin (D-MD)
Clinton (D-NY)
Dodd (D-CT)
Dorgan (D-ND)
Durbin (D-IL)
Feingold (D-WI)
Harkin (D-IA)
Kerry (D-MA)
Klobuchar (D-MN)
Lautenberg (D-NJ)
Leahy (D-VT)
Levin (D-MI)
Menendez (D-NJ)
Murray (D-WA)
Reed (D-RI)
Reid (D-NV)
Sanders (I-VT)
Schumer (D-NY)
Stabenow (D-MI)
Tester (D-MT)
Wyden (D-OR)

Not Voting - 3
Kennedy (D-MA)
McCain (R-AZ)--COWARD
Sessions (R-AL)

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Remove Harry Reid

Hapless Harry has released a statement:

On Wednesday, July 9, 2008, after the Senate convenes at 9:30am, it will resume consideration of the FISA Amendments Act of 2008 (H.R. 6304). There will be one hour and forty-five minutes of debate, with 30 minutes under the control of Senator Feingold; 15 minutes under the control of Senator Dodd; 10 minutes under the control of Senator Bingaman; 10 minutes under the control of Senator Leahy; 10 minutes under the control of the Majority Leader; and 30 under the control of the Republican Leader or his designee.

Reid: At which time I will serve cookies and also juice. Only one cup per Senator will be passed out at cookie time. Please don't spill any juice, the floor of the Senate is very hard to clean up.

Upon the use or yielding back of this time, the Senate will proceed to roll-call votes in relation to the pending amendments. Upon disposition of these amendments, the Senate will proceed to a roll -call vote on the motion to invoke cloture on H.R. 6304, as amended if amended.

If cloture is invoked on H.R. 6304, all post-cloture time will be yielded back, and the Senate will proceed to a roll-call vote on passage of H.R. 6304, as amended if amended.

Reid: I want to make sure that all Senators be sure and get a permission form for all these events, I know we have had a problem with parents not providing the proper paperwork, I want to be clear that won't be tolerated anymore. Hall monitors will be watching and I expect a full report.

The Senate will soon vote on a FISA bill that represents the final result of negotiations among the White House and Democrats and Republicans in Congress. I opposed the version originally passed by the Senate. And although improvements have been made in the version now before us, this legislation continues to contain provisions that will lead to immunity for the telecommunications companies who cooperated with the Bush Administration's illegal warrantless wiretapping program.

For that reason, I will vote no.

Reid: Especially considering that I have made sure that this bill will pass. I want to maintain the illusion that I am something other than a tired sell out that is well past his prime and care more about maintaining the democratic kindergarten that I have submitted to under the republicans low these many years. I have learned to like the taste of boot leather.


Geez what a coward, what a sad end to a fairly decent career and a even more sad end to the central role of the Constitution in our government.

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Former North Carolina Senator Jesse Helms Has Died.

Out Of Propriety, I Left “And Gleeful, Legislation-Twisting Racist Homophobe” Out Of The Main Headline, And Placed It Here Instead Because I Have Class.

(CBS) Jesse Helms, the five-term Republican Senator from North Carolina, has died. He was 86.

Helms died in Raleigh at 1:15 this morning, according to the Jesse Helms Center in Wingate, North Carolina.

Helms built a career along the fault lines of racial politics and battled liberals, Communists and the occasional fellow Republican during his decades in Congress.

----------------------------------------------------------------

CBS News correspondent Bob Fuss called Helms a politician who knew no middle ground, one of the most conservative men to ever sit in the Senate - and proud of it. Bigger than life in his native North Carolina, he sometimes seemed that way to his political enemies in Washington, too.

Born in Monroe, N.C. in 1921, Helms worked as a reporter and a Navy recruiter before entering politics after World War II, when he worked for North Carolina Senator Willis Smith in Washington.

He returned to Raleigh where he won a seat on the city council, but became best known when he joined Capitol Broadcasting Company, the owner of WRAL (which is now a CBS affiliate), in 1960.

Over the next decade, Helms offered editorial messages, broadcast after the nightly newscasts, which were decidedly ideological - in one, he proposed building a wall around UNC-Chapel Hill (which he dubbed "the University of Negroes and Communists") to contain its "liberal" influence.

The CBS News obit is being a bit kind, seeing as how Helms was one of the network's air personalities ironically enough, during its halcyon, muck-raking “Age of Murrow”. So, let me be blunt here, in my obit of Mr. Helms.

Condolences to his family and survivors who did not share his twisted vision. Because you simply can't pick your family. Good or bad, they are who they are. They're human beings with feelings, regardless oft-times of your transgressions. So again...condolences to those decent members of Mr. Helms' family.

I will not be so sanguine about the late Senator, though.

Helms' and his fellow travelers racist demagoguery drove more Black folk from North Carolina than GM, Ford and Chrysler vehicles combined. My mother, father and at least eight other uncles and aunts ran like runaway slaves from that intentionally racially backward-ized state during Helms' media heyday of 1960 to his Senate Tenure beginning in 1972 and at least a decade into it.

He giddily meant the million or so African Americans in the state, and the twenty-nine million outside his state in the greater United States nothing but ill will and used his legislative cudgel to beat them down every single chance he got. There is no redeeming feature in my eyes to remember him with. Unlike several undeniably talented bigots who strode the last century like colossi—the likes of a Leni Rifenstahl or a D.W. Griffith—genuinely evil-enabling people who still boasted world and culture changing talents, Helms was not talented. Nor was he particularly smart. What he was, was dogged, and vicious—and he applied that doggedness and viciousness to the task of promoting White Supremacy for the better part of half a century. If he had a talent, it was in the application of his personal racial animus in writing and voting for oppressive legislation that denied people of color their so-called inalienable rights. He damn sure managed to somehow make inalienable, “alienable”, so in that respect alone perhaps—in his blunt-trauma-to-the-skull harshness—he was a “talent”. But then...Charlie Manson clearly evidenced a proficient “talent” for psychotic murder, so take that for what it's worth.

Helms left this mortal coil early this morning of The Fourth Of July, Two-thousand and eight, and I could not help but note the brutal irony of that “timing”.

He passed away on Independence Day...a holiday celebrating this country's finally breaking the shackles of a brutal tyranny, while he himself worked his entire life towards the unjust shackling of the freedoms, dreams, aspirations and in many cases, the actual legs and arms of some thirty million African Americans.

Something to note there.

And it happened THIS YEAR, in 2008...so let me say this—I actually wish Helms had hung on to life just a bit longer. Never mind the suffering or pain. I truly wish he'd managed to hang on through a bit of 2009. Not because I cared for him in any way, but for the same reason I wish William F. Buckley and other bigoted, recently-departed retrogrades had stuck around, too.

I wanted to hear the rolling thunder of a million indigestion-sparked, racist gut-rumbles led by Helms' on the day their worst nightmare ever came to pass—namely the extreme likelihood of a Black person being elected to the highest office in the land. Commander-in-Chief. President of The United States of America.

I wanted to hear the half-inch thick rubber band “snap” of an inflexible mind like his giving way under the inexorable push of progress. And have the banshee howl of “Noooooooooooooooo!” be the last thing said as the tattered wraiths from “Ghost” rose from the earth and dragged his wretched soul below.

To hear the cement-mixer-full-of-boulders grinding noise of a thousand Klaverns worth of teeth—gnashing and breaking from rough friction, and maybe Helms' own cheap dentures shattering like a stale fortune cookie under grinding pressure from the unspeakable thing's happening.

But alas, I will not. And for that alone about him, I am sad.

I pray in that steamy place beyond where he has gone to, the words of Frederick Douglass are blasted at him full-volume from a massive, vintage boom-box on an endless loop—with Public Enemy's “Fight The Power” instrumental in the background:

“What, to the American slave, is your 4th of July? I answer; a day that reveals to him, more than all other days in the year, the gross injustice and cruelty to which he is the constant victim. To him, your celebration is a sham; your boasted liberty, an unholy license; your national greatness, swelling vanity; your sound of rejoicing are empty and heartless; your denunciation of tyrants brass fronted impudence; your shout of liberty and equality, hollow mockery; your prayers and hymns, your sermons and thanks-givings, with all your religious parade and solemnity, are to him, mere bombast, fraud, deception, impiety, and hypocrisy -- a thin veil to cover up crimes which would disgrace a nation of savages.”

Those words were for the likes of you, Jesse Helms. You.

Now, you are gone...and the world spins on without you and advances past the boulderous roadblocks you pushed into place.

I shall shed not a single tear. Nor will those who truly cherish the ideals of freedom, justice and equality.

Be on your way, Senator.


















Beyond that, A Very Happy Fourth Of July, all.

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