The Only Way McCain Wins (and how to stop him)

The Current Polls & Predictions
With one week to go, here's an overview of my various sources and what they say about the upcoming election. Everything points to a significant Obama victory next week, unless something very odd or untoward happens.

Pollster.com EV map:

Image Source: Pollster.com, 2008.10.27

Pollster.com basically takes all the poll data from all the polls and displays it as an EV map. Yellow states are "tossups", while lightly colored (blue and red) states "lean" to their respective parties. The critical piece of information here is the number in the upper right next to the dark blue legend square: 268. Current polling shows Obama has "strong" polling numbers representing 268 EVs, leaving him only two short of election to pick up over the the "lean democratic" and "tossup" states, while McCain must run the table of all "lean republican", "tossup", AND "lean democratic" states to win.

Electoral-vote.com map:

Image Source: Electoral-Vote.com, 2008.10.27

Electoral-vote.com shows us basically the same data in a slightly different form. Pure white states (MT and ND) are "tied". Light blue and red states (CO, VA, OH, SD, WV) are "weak" for their respective parties while light blue and red outlined states (FL, NV, NC, AZ, GA) are "barely" for their respective parties. You'll notice that the outlined and white states are the "tossup" states in the pollster.com map. Behind the scenes these sites use very similar data, and the conclusion is almost the same. Electoral-vote.com says Obama has 260 EVs locked up in "strong" states, with another 57 "weak" and 58 "barely" to McCain's 134 "strong", 8 "weak" and 15 "barely", with 6 EVs "tied" in MT and ND. Again, Obama needs to pick up very few EVs (10) from the entire range of "weak democratic", "barely democratic", "tied", "barely republican" and "weak republican" in order to win.

Five-thirty-eight.com EV map:

Image Source: FiveThirtyEight.com, 2008.10.27

Five thirty eight.com is not just reporting aggregated polling data. The FAQ explains how they are different:

Firstly, we assign each poll a weighting based on that pollster's historical track record, the poll's sample size, and the recentness of the poll. More reliable polls are weighted more heavily in our averages.

Secondly, we include a regression estimate based on the demographics in each state among our 'polls', which helps to account for outlier polls and to keep the polling in its proper context.

Thirdly, we use an inferential process to compute a rolling trendline that allows us to adjust results in states that have not been polled recently and make them ‘current’.

Fourthly, we simulate the election 10,000 times for each site update in order to provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes based on a historical analysis of polling data since 1952. The simulation further accounts for the fact that similar states are likely to move together, e.g. future polling movement in states like Michigan and Ohio, or North and South Carolina, is likely to be in the same direction.

Five thirty eight.com uses statistical techniques in an attempt to determine which polls are more valid than others, and to extract trend information. Using the processed data, they run Monte Carlo simulations to "predict" the outcome of 10000 simulated elections. The aggregated information from those simulation runs provides them with a "most likely" result, a probability of Democratic or Republican victory, and an estimate of the popular vote. As of 27 October, the most likely result is 351 EV for Obama and 187 EV for McCain, a 96.7% chance that Obama will win, and a popular vote split of 52.4% for Obama to 46% for McCain.

Electoral-vote.com, all EV polling:

Image Source: Electoral-Vote.com, 2008.10.27

Electoral-vote.com also shows us two graphs. This lead graph provides the total EV count polling to each party. Obama has polled above 270 EVs very consistently since he clinched the nomination.

Electoral-vote.com, EVs polling more than 5% only:

Image Source: Electoral-Vote.com, 2008.10.27

This second graph shows only those EVs which poll a 5% or greater difference. Even with that, Obama is above the 270 needed to win the presidency.

Pollster.com gives us a national trend graph showing all their polls as individual dots with a line showing a smoothed average trend. I've included three versions to show just how tricky this kind of analysis can be. The sensitivity of the smoothing indicates how quickly the trendline responds to changes. More sensitive means more quickly. However, more sensitive also means more vulnerable to noise in the data.

Pollster.com More Sensitive Smoothing

Image Source: Pollster.com, 2008.10.27

Pollster.com Medium Smoothing

Image Source: Pollster.com, 2008.10.27

Pollster.com Less Sensitive Smoothing

Image Source: Pollster.com, 2008.10.27

Notice how the trendlines are more jagged in the "more sensitive" graph and how they smooth out as the sensitivity goes down. The "medium" and "less sensitive" graphs show us a pretty consistent picture of Obama running about 50% and McCain somewhere in the 42-43% range. The "more sensitive" graph suggests a hint that Obama's support is weakening and that we might be seeing a significant narrowing (perhaps as much as 3%) of the national gap.

That's not very likely, especially not this close to the election. The gap changes we see now are most likely to be undecideds (although how you can be undecided 19 1/2 months into a 20 month campaign is a little beyond me) making up their minds at the last minute, NOT people suddenly deciding that the candidate they're with has become unacceptable to them. If the change continues over the next couple of days, it may represent an actual shift, but I wouldn't call it a real trend until Thursday and then only if it starts to show up in the less sensitive trend analysis. If I had the actual numbers to play with I might be able to call it sooner, but I don't.

With all the polling and trending suggesting bad national news for McCain, how does he win the election? Watch the video for the answer.

Source Video: Heroes, Season One, Episode "Landslide"
Video Production: Evan Robinson, Group News Blog

Obviously I'm not suggesting that John McCain can win the election by finding an 8-year old African-American child with the power to "talk" to computers. But I am suggesting that the most believable way McCain wins the presidency in 2008 is through election fraud.

Voting Fraud
According to the Brad Blog, we are already seeing "vote flipping" happening during early voting in West Virginia and Texas. Candidate names disappeared from the final review screen in South Carolina. We've even seen at least one case of vote flipping from R to D in Tennessee (although that report appears to be exaggerated -- at least)!

Ultimately, computer voting using machines created by private companies expose our democracy to unacceptable risks. Companies making electronic voting machines have committed to deliver votes for one side. Unvetted software has been installed to run elections. Computers count votes in secret and many make meaningful re-counts impossible.

Vote Suppression
Every election cycle, Republicans launch massive efforts at suppressing voter turnout. They do so by a variety of methods, including not mailing out ballots, circulating flyers with false information about election dates or locations or requirements, purging voter rolls, issuing spurious challenges to voters on election day, even threatening voters with deportation or arrest.

It has been part of the conservative (aka Republican) canon since at least 1980 that low turnout benefits the Right:

How To Stop McCain From Winning

The only way John McCain wins in 2008 is to cheat. Don't let him. We must win by an overwhelming majority in order to take the election. No 2000-style sportsmanship in 2008 if the election is stolen.

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This I Believe: Our Noble, Essential Decency

(Robert Heinlein, "Our Noble, Essential Decency", from This I Believe (1952))

I'm writing this before the election for two reasons.

1) Because I don't want anybody saying I was influenced by winning or losing the election. That's not what this is about. And

2) Because I want everybody who hasn't voted yet to remember the stakes.

The above recording is Robert Heinlein in 1952, reading his personal declaration on Edward R. Murrow's old radio show, This I Believe:

I am not going to talk about religious beliefs but about matters so obvious that it has gone out of style to mention them. I believe in my neighbors. I know their faults, and I know that their virtues far outweigh their faults.

Take Father Michael, down our road apiece. I’m not of his creed, but I know that goodness and charity and loving kindness shine in his daily actions. I believe in Father Mike. If I’m in trouble, I’ll go to him. My next door neighbor’s a veterinary doctor. Doc will get out of bed after a hard day to help a stray cat—no fee, no prospect of a fee. I believe in Doc.

I believe in my townspeople. You can knock on any door in our town, say “I’m hungry,” and you’ll be fed. Our town is no exception. I found the same ready charity everywhere. For the one who says, “The heck with you, I’ve got mine,” there are a hundred, a thousand, who will say, “Sure pal, sit down.” I know that despite all warnings against hitchhikers, I can step to the highway, thumb for a ride, and in a few minutes a car or a truck will stop and someone will say, “Climb in, Mack. How far you going?”

I believe in my fellow citizens. Our headlines are splashed with crime. Yet for every criminal, there are ten thousand honest, decent, kindly men. If it were not so, no child would live to grow up. Business could not go on from day to day. Decency is not news. It is buried in the obituaries, but it is a force stronger than crime.

I believe in the patient gallantry of nurses, in the tedious sacrifices of teachers. I believe in the unseen and unending fight against desperate odds that goes on quietly in almost every home in the land. I believe in the honest craft of workmen. Take a look around you. There never were enough bosses to check up on all that work. From Independence Hall to the Grand Coulee Dam, these things were built level and square by craftsmen who were honest in their bones.

I believe that almost all politicians are honest. For every bribed alderman, there are hundreds of politicians—low paid or not paid at all—doing their level best without thanks or glory to make our system work. If this were not true, we would never have gotten past the Thirteen Colonies.

I believe in Rodger Young. You and I are free today because of endless unnamed heroes from Valley Forge to the Yalu River. I believe in—I am proud to belong to—the United States. Despite shortcomings—from lynchings, to bad faith in high places—our nation has had the most decent and kindly internal practices and foreign policies to be found anywhere in history.

And finally, I believe in my whole race—yellow, white, black, red, brown—in the honesty, courage, intelligence, durability, and goodness of the overwhelming majority of my brothers and sisters everywhere on this planet. I am proud to be a human being. I believe that we have come this far by the skin of our teeth—that we always make it just for the skin of our teeth—but that we will always make it, survive, endure.

I believe that this hairless embryo with the aching oversized braincase and the opposable thumb—this animal barely up from the apes—will endure, will endure longer than his home planet, will spread out to the other planets—to the stars and beyond—carrying with him his honesty, his insatiable curiosity, his unlimited courage, and his noble essential decency. This I believe with all my heart.

In a week, Americans will finish voting. We believe that "our side" is the correct one to lead the country forward. So do "they". Most of us are sincere in our beliefs and think that those who disagree are merely misguided, not evil. The vast majority of us want the best for the country and our fellow citizens.

Many of us on the Left feel that the elections of both 2000 and 2004 were stolen, and we fear (with good reason) that 2008 may go the same way. We fear that Americans will not elect an African-American to the White House, or that a President-elect Obama will be assassinated, or that there will be violence during his term in office.

Some on the Right fear that international terrorism will somehow "win" if McCain is defeated, or that the evils of socialism will come to America, or that good Christians will be given the Mark of the Beast. They fear that "leftist radicals" will riot if Obama is defeated, or that an obstructionist Congress will halt what they believe is progress in the Middle East or Afghanistan or in fighting illegal immigration.

We are all Americans. We are all confined to this small globe we call Earth. Those of us who are entitled to vote next week will make a decision that will have world-changing effects on every soul on the planet.

We are all in this together. All of us -- "yellow, white, black, red, brown", as Heinlein said -- will suffer the consequences and share the achievements of the next four years. And the next eight years. And the next century, which will be dominated in no small part by decisions we American citizens make in the next seven days.

Regardless of the outcome of the election, regardless of the individual gains and losses, regardless of the emotions left behind in the wake of broken promises, missed expectations, and suspected irregularities, we must remember...

Our Noble, Essential Decency

and that

We Are All in This Together

as we lurch forward toward our preferred futures.

Breathe.

Vote.

Endure.

Sustain.

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Move On Racism: Obama or Else

[Guess Who's Coming To Dinner?, by NY Street Artist TMNK™ (The Me Nobody Knows)]

Move On Racism: Obama or Else

Bill Clinton was on Letterman last night, mostly talking about the Clinton Global Initiative and explaining the current economic crisis. I wish he'd done more to assign blame, but that's an emotional reaction on my part.

In fact, here's my entirely emotional, working class reaction to the economic hooha: Ya'll are JUST NOW figuring out things are in the crapper? As usual, awareness of reality starts at the bottom and works it way up to the rarified air of the so-called "leaders". And thinkers. You know what I'd like to see? NO MORE WHITE MEN IN SUITS TALKING GRAVELY ABOUT THE ECONOMY. I've had it up to here on my fat red neck.

Furthermore, if I go to Walgreen's and steal a package of batteries, and the alarm goes off at the door, here's what happens: I get questioned, probably charged, and I don't get to keep the batteries. If I get charged, I get fined or do time. The penalty will depend on my looks (if I'm non-white, I do time; if I'm white and female and look poor/fat, I do time; etc.)

So what I want to see FIRST, before anything else, is the homes, condos, cars, boats, and pensions of every single fucker who has headed up banks and investment firms SEIZED and sold, with that money applied to the debt they've run up. Then they get fined on top of that, and their asses get FIRED. As Clinton said about the economic crisis last night, he's interested in seeing someone apply gaming theory to the situation, because there's no way things could get worse so any action will lead to improvement. If that's true, then ANYBODY hired in place of the alleged experts will make things better. Let's give it a try, shall we?

The penalty for greed at the expense of others (and that sums up the past eight years in a nutshell) needs to be deprivation on an epic scale for those who indulged themselves.

Okay, back to Bill: What I've been most thinking about is his assessment of how the Presidential race will come down to personality, not issues. How the Republicans want to keep it on that level, because they've won with idiots several times in a row now and it's all they have left. (That last sentence is my paraphrase.) And with the current ADD, so-you-think-you-can-raise-a-baby-while-dancing-to-don't-forget-the-lyrics mindset of the populace, perhaps they are right, perhaps nobody can win running on intelligence any more.

But that's okay, because we can win on personality, too.

There's been a lot of angst about the race gap in polls of voters, that there's a certain percentage of white voters who will never cast a ballot for a non-white. Yep, I'm sure that's true as it sits today. Just like there's a certain percentage who will never vote for a woman, or never vote for a non-Christian -- and I'll bet those numbers are comparable or even higher. But people who know they won't vote for a black man, who can answer a poll about it honestly, well, they aren't going to vote for our side anyhow. Whether we run a black guy or not, we're the party who acknowledges the reality of racism and at least makes noises about addressing it, so we're not the choice of someone for whom maintaining racism makes sense.

It's the other folks, the white people who believe they aren't racist, who are the voters we need to care about. And that's most of us. But we have some real advantages to doing this work, winning the hearts as well as the minds of white racists who don't believe they are racists.

Here's the skinny: Nobody is born a racist. (Cue music from South Pacific....) We learn it, from the people we love and trust the most, who are teaching us the nature of the world. We resist as long as we can, in every way we can, until it overwhelms us in spite of our best efforts.

People who have given up fighting racism, who openly admit they hate blacks, for instance, are developmentally still at a level where they dare not comprehend their parents and church and ancestors are damaged liars. They can't bear facing it; better to just give in to becoming like mom and dad.

The rest of us are, on some level, willing to admit the pars were not perfect, not right about everything or maybe even most things. We try to admire Thomas Jefferson's vision and ignore his raping slave women. We admit to some problems, but always need that "but" in there, that America wasn't COMPLETELY based on lies and hate and theft. And because we need a loophole for the myth, it's easy to squeeze our own personal racism through the sphincter as well.

Still, it's exhausting. It's exhausting either way we go, frankly.

For those who choose not to fight internal racism on any level, they have to stay mad. Mad covers up the fear. It also shortens life spans. I mean yeah, depression kills, but not as fast as cardiac disease. Being chronically angry and hostile is a coronary risk factor that ranks right up there with smoking and lack of exercise. On some scales, it's worse than having high cholesterol. It plays hob with our adrenaline systems and we wear out fast, like an engine with the timing set too high.

And being mad in a public way requires continual escalation to keep people in the game. That's why right wing radio gets worse every year, more overt, more dangerous: It's the only way they can keep people from numbing out, from losing listeners. It's like pornography or junk food: Once you give up on human reality, you have to keep feeding the addiction of substitute reality.

For those of us who do admit to doubt, to fear, to grief, even, we're also looking for a high: The high of truth. The relief of responsibility and power. The blood-surging thrill of community and connection.

But we have shitty role models for how to reach those planes of existence. The prevailing Christian model says we must abase ourselves in repentance, surrender to complete reconfiguration and never look back. This doesn't work for most people who are not either homeless, in prison, or running from facing what their parents told them. New Age approaches can be similarly based on katabatic winds of redemption and renewal.

In most instances, however, real change is gradual, sloppy, shifts back and forth like a smoker trying to quit, and arises almost entirely from a one-on-one connection with another human being. We are hard-wired to change when we are trusted and believed in, not when we are shamed and vilified. Go figure, huh?

I believe the current level of polarization in this country, a divide constantly stoked by the systems of oppression because it prevents meaningful change, is comparable to the Israeli/Palestinian or Catholic/Protestant Ireland conflict in every regard except the use of car bombs. (If you don't count Timothy McVeigh.) It's that serious. And overcoming it will mean abandoning military solutions, eliminationist rhetoric, and, especially, "venting" our "perceptions" about one another. Venting means you dump your gases into another environment temporarily, but you wind up breathing it back in eventually and you simply piss off more people in the process.

In my lifetime, I've seen racism go from almost universal public expression to the current state where accusations of it float around in dispute and some overt forms of it are condemned as unacceptably to "polite society". This doesn't mean it has actually diminished, necessarily, only that some of the racist terms and ideas I heard on TV and radio as a child are not now on mainstream channels. It's gone underground. And part of the cover-up has involved academic theories such as "privilege", which do little to help the average white person actually undo the lies of racism: Guilt is not cathartic and does not engage useful parts of the brain. In too many cases, "owning our privilege" is Covermark instead of exfoliating.

Let's just admit, our entire culture and all the systems it has created are white supremacist. The degree may vary, and that's important to quantify on a strategic level, but we're all in the belly of the beast. "Privilege" is not going to determine who lives in clean air, because none of us do.

Admitting racism is much harder, and much more illuminating, than admitting "privilege". I believe part of the reason why Obama has won over so many guilty white progressives is because he doesn't demand they admit their own racism -- they get to blame others for that. "At least I'm not like those people in Mississippi", they think with self-congratulation. Forgetting, of course, that Mississippi was the birthplace of the Civil Rights movement because of its brilliant and powerful African-American population, almost 40% of the state -- but that doesn't count as the "real" picture of a Mississipian.

We are at the next step in this campaign, now. We are being called on to build bridges across new divides -- or, more accurately, as Barbara Love (an African-American activist) once said, the bridges between us and every other human being already exist. We don't have to do the hard labor of building them, we only need to clear off the debris which has rendered them temporarily unusable.

It's not merely about race, of course. You can't discuss race without factoring in class, and you can't discuss class without factoring in gender. They are all expressed in different ways but with equal impact in the long term. So, today's "Obama or Else" assignment is to literally talk to another human being about who you are, what you believe, and, much more importantly, listen to them in turn.

MoveOn.org is making it easy for us. Last Sunday, they hosted "Call for Change" parties which resulted in almost HALF A MILLION phone calls recruiting new volunteers for Obama. My friend Liza in Burlington, Vermont was one of them. On Monday we had an exhilirating conversation where she described what it was like to talk with people in Lake Jackson, Florida. I was very moved, second-hand, by what she experienced. These parties will be occurring again this coming weekend, and MoveOn is looking for people to host them as well as participate. Click here to get started: Call For Change Parties.

Whether or not you garner a single new vote for Obama, you will have made a human connection which raises the energy and pushes into the ravine detritus from the bridge we are all ravenous to see open to traffic in both directions. Undoing racism involves action, first and last. Your ancestors are cheering you on, whoever they were, believe me. And please come back here to share with us what it felt like, whatever you did.

[About the graphic above: NY Street Artist TMNK™ (The Me Nobody Knows) has this text about the painting at his Flickr site:

In Stanley Kramer's 1967 movie "Guess Who's Coming To Dinner?", a whirlwind romance by an interracial couple forced their families to confront their attitudes about race. The male love interest, and lead was a young NEGRO played by Sydney Portier. Matters were only further complicated by the fact that this was no stereotypical NEGRO. Smart, accomplished, ARTICULATE, polite, and sophisticated.

Well here we are some 40+ years later, and guess who may be coming to dinner?

Yep, another smart, accomplished, ARTICULATE, polite, and sophisticated Negro, accept today they're called Black.

It seems America is in the midst of filming an updated version of that cinematic classic starring Barack Obama. This time around , however, the love interest is not a "white woman", it's THE WHITE HOUSE! And just like the parents in 1967, America is being forced to confront it's racial attitudes (the one's it supposedly doesn't have).

You think Tilly had a fit when Sydney Portier's character wanted to marry the sweet little white girl she had helped raise. Well Tilly honey, will likely piss in her panties when she sees who's at the front door of the white house.

Guess who's coming to dinner now Tilly? "Hi, my name is Barack Obama."



H/t to Liza Cowan for her post Picture the Future: Obama Art Part 3 which introduced me to TMNK.

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No More Clowns

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McCain Speaks Out of Both Sides of His Mouth

Photograph: John McCain Wallpaper, John McCain Campaign Website

Photo illustration: Evan Robinson, Group News Blog

John McCain likes to present himself as a truth-telling Maverick who isn't afraid to buck the system or fight the people in Washington DC. He wants you to believe that he has principles, he stands by them, and he'd never, ever, tell you a lie for his own benefit.

But that's just a concocted image. Always has been, always will be. John McCain is either a liar, an opportunist, or so senile that he can't remember what he said from day to day and year to year. He's so unreliable that his own campaign has said that what John McCain says isn't to be taken as official policy of the campaign.

Yes, you heard that right. John McCain does not officially speak for John McCain.

A relatively simple search of the Intartubes will find numerous times when McCain vacillates, backtracks, contradicts himself, says he never said something he just said, and generally fumbles around reality and the truth with all the facility of a drunken leprechaun who's broken his leg, has crutches that aren't the same length, whose shoelaces are tied together, wearing sunglasses so dark he can't see where he's going, at night, on ice.

At Saturday's We The People event in Seattle, Rachel Maddow pointed out that the Democratic Party seems to have an identity problem. They self-identify as "not that!" (where that is the Republican Party's rush to shred the Constitution, commit illegal acts inside and outside the U.S., engage in wanton imperial adventures contravening international law, and ... like that). Rachel believes that the Democratic Party needs it's own identity.

So how about Intellectual Honesty and Consistency for a start? John McCain wavers in the wind. He got his ass kicked in 2000 by a vicious libel spread by George Bush's surrogates, but he embraces George Bush in 2008 when trying to get nominated. He's been tortured and says it's wrong, but he votes to allow the U.S. to torture prisoners.

This election is not just about Barack Obama. It's about John McCain and Barack Obama. And John McCain does not deserve to lead the United States. It's that simple.

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The Girl That I'll Vote For

Strong Woman's Shadow, Addis Ababa, Ethiopa, photo by Margré

The Girl That I'll Vote For

After close observation, I've learned that the woman candidate who deserves to be elected the first female President (and by deserves, I mean passes the refined litmus test of male progressive bloggers) will have to meet the following criteria:

(1) Won't object to being called a girl, no matter how old she is. (See Humorless below.)

(2) Thinks "bitch" is funny and can be reclaimed. (See Humorless below.)

(3) Doesn't wear pantsuits. I mean, how wacky is that, women in pants? (The persistent refusal to wear dresses kicks in TPR™, Testicular Protective Response, which is of course a woman's responsibility to keep from being engaged.)

(4) Is not Humorless, as defined by the Adam Sandler (NOT the Tina Fey) Lofty Standards of Comedy.

(5) Is not fat. Or disabled, yikes.

(6) Is neither "hawkish" nor "soft" on national security. (Hawkishness is reserved for PBO™, Penis Bearers Only.)

(7) Is not tearful in public. (Manipulative.)

(8) Is not angry in public. (Harpy.)

(9) Is not stoic in public. (Frigid.)

(10) Has been "more than just a Senator". (Fine for PBO™, though.)

(11) Doesn't try to count eight years living and working in the White House as experience. (Fine for sons of former Presidents, though.)

(12) Has bred. (Proof of uterus + PIV sex.) She'll need the ability to use mothering for analogies, since she is forbidden from using sports analogies (PBO™).

(13) Has a hairstyle which is Not Dykey and requires more care than just washing and blow-drying. (Okay for PBO™, though.)

(14) Has never been married to or closely related to a man who is/was powerful in politics, because she's like totally responsible for anything he ever did. (Cleared for PBO™, of course -- dynasties are so cool there, I mean, did you hear how the Kennedys came on board for Obama?)

(15) Does not believe that "women's issues" -- rape as terrorism, infant mortality, human trafficking, reproductive rights, poverty, domestic violence, unequal pay, etc. -- are nearly as serious as, say, offshore drilling.

(16) Will never make male bloggers have an unpleasant memory of their mother, ex, gradeschool teacher, sister, another ex, lesbians, or the snotty bitch who beat them in the race for student council. Because once a guy has reached liberal-dom, he's moved as far as he needs to, you know? If he has feelings come up when he looks at/hears the voice of a particular woman, it's HER job to fix it. Politically speaking, it's no ass, no pass.

Okay, I'm clear now. As soon as we put forth the name of a woman who fits these very well-thought-out criteria, she will naturaly receive generous support from the Blogger Boyz. Same goes for Obama's Veep, of course. (And by the way, we would have hired a black or Hispanic for the management position if any qualified candidates had applied.)

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Told ya so

1

No# of events Senator John McCain conducts per day in his 2008 presidential campaign.

I told you guys that McCain was never going to be able to keep up the pace of a presidential candidate...

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“Funny 'Round The Mouth”

“Dude, My Party Sucked...Mind If I Crash Yours?”
(Photo of Bob Barr at Netroots Nation—Sat. July 19, 2008 by LowerManhattanite)

While hustling back from a run across the street to the hotel for a left-behind power cable, I was jogging through the Austin Convention center, where I noticed a man being interviewed by several people with mics and cameras.

The gentleman was dapped out in that crisp, bad-ass, Southern style. Blue and white striped shirt, creases starched hard enough to peel carrots, a light-weight blue blazer with brass buttons, perfect dry-cleaned jeans, also creased with diamond hardness, and a pair of chestnut colored leather boots, buffed to a high shine—no scuffs—and a nifty cuban heel.

Homeboy was dap as hell. But as I motored past...I noted how familiar he looked.

And when I suddenly realized who he was, I of course caught a sneaker tread on the carpet and nearly fell on my ass in shock.

It was former Georgia GOP Rep. Bob Barr, one of former President Clinton's most memorable beté noirs of “MonicaGate”—at Netroots Nation. What...in the Wide World of Sports was going on here?

So, I now sprinted over to where I'd left Doc Wendel and my laptop and grabbed my camera, hoping to capture the dap little pimp before he “bamfed” away in a cloud of ash and brimstone. Luckily, he was still holding court and I managed to get a few shots of him—the one running here being the best one. The reason for that is that every time I tried to hold the camera still, I started to chuckle to myself and shake the damned thing.

You see, Bob Barr has long been the butt of many jokes in my family since the ugly winter of 1998. He was such a annoying, little pit bull against Clinton, you just wanted to smack him...but...

There was something odd about him. Something that was “off”.

Media people have noted that “offness” of late, but I will tell you that this has been long discussed in other more insular circles.

Bob Barr, um...well...as my mother said it “Looks a little 'funny' 'round the mouth”.

If he doesn't have some immediate African American lineage somewhere in his blood, then I'm the first cousin of Edgar-fucking-Winter.

Many have picked up on his uncanny resemblance to Rev. Jeremiah Wright. (!)

My brothers and sisters...take a peek below, and as they used to say in that old commercial during NFL games “You...make the call...



Dig the lips, folks...That ain't collagen...that's collards and Coltrane.

Funny-ass hair texture too—particularly on the 'stache. “Rev. Al's shit is straighter than Barr's is.” one friend loves to note frequently.

But there Barr was, in all his dap-tastic glory, in the lobby of the Convention Center hosting a gathering of people absolutely four-square against the party he's identified with for the last forever. Why was he here? To be the fly in the ointment for us progresives? That stray “chip” in the sugar cookie? (Kind of a butterscotch chip, if not an all-chocolate accident)

Nah. He just wanted to be where the action was. Because across town where he gangsta-leaned over from is where it clearly wasn't.

AUSTIN — Conservative bloggers are holding their own mini-conference across town in the northern part of this city. And while some have bashed the left and the liberal blogosphere, several are taking cues from the successes of the online left and building out from them.

The Americans for Prosperity Foundation decided to concentrate part of its Texas conference on new media here, (RightOnline.com) and while planning this event, decided to hold it at the same time as the much larger Netroots Nation convention.

That apparently worried a few of the more powerful bloggers on the right, writers who didn’t want comparisons to be made in terms of size and scope, we’re told. And it is much smaller in attendance and even in focus, (with a decidedly libertarian bent to some degree). But the organizers said they never wanted to go “toe-to-toe” – or, perhaps, we’d say from down here, it would be “boot-to-boot” with the Netroots conference.

On the left, the netroots sessions are chock-full of heavy online hitters and the chairman of the Democratic party as well as the Democratic speaker of the House of Representatives are among its keynote guest speakers.

For the right, tonight’s main speakers are columnist Bob Novak and Barry Goldwater Jr.

Um. Yeah. And their heaviest hitters of all were such superstars as RedState's Erick (“Der Banhammer”) Erickson and keynote screecher speaker Michelle Malkin, whose stirring speechifying probably caused the majestic bronze Barbara Jordan statue at the Austin airport to slowly close its eyes and go to sleep.

So, instead of hanging around the coffee urn in the hotel lounge a little ways north where all 19 of the GOP gathering's attendees caucused such issues as the depth of the anti-immigrant wall at the border (“Five inches! No! Seven! They have claws and can rip through five, easy!”), Barr instead came where the party was poppin' on the day of his big speech before that other “throng”.

Sad, really.

But there Barr was, in all of his decidedly questionable ethnicity glory. Cameras a' clickin'—including mine, and recorders a' rollin' away as he held court where somebody actually gave a rat's ass about him.

Oh wait...there is someplace else where people give a big, fat, hairy rat's ass about him—John McCain campaign headquarters:

Poll finds Barr siphoning votes from McCain

Wednesday, June 25, 2008, 09:39 AM
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

While a poll released late Tuesday by the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg showed Libertarian Party presidential nominee Bob Barr drawing only 3 percent support, the data show that much of that is coming at the expense of Republican candidate John McCain.

The new national poll shows McCain trailing Democrat Barack Obama 37 percent to 49 percent when the race is just between the two major party candidates. But when Barr, a former Georgia congressman, and independent candidate Ralph Nader are added to the mix, Obama’s margin jumps to 15 percentage points, 48 percent to 33 percent.

Seems there's a good chance my dear ol' Uncle Bobbeh (That's what us folks call him at the family reunions, you know...) has a pretty good chance of Perot/Nader-izing John McCain's odds of being President that much deeper into the sticky muck of impossibility, based on polling in states where the would-be jet demolisher-in-chief needs every damned vote. Oooops!

I suppose the lone saving grace for McCain is that he can probably save campaign money by not having to come up with a separate series of attack ads against Barr.

I mean...he could just simply recycle the subliminally racist ones he's going to be trotting out against Obama, right?

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Obama Gets Cocky

With a nice 15 point lead, plenty of money in the bank and support of his own party, this guy thought he had the race sown up also.


Not many people, and I mean normal people, are aware of this FISA bullshit that the telecoms and Cheney are trying to push through congress before the bell rings and they are out of office a little over 6 months from now. The basics are that the corporations are trying to get the 1974 FISA law rewritten to allow for warrentless wiretapping and also get some immunity for having allowed this in the past.

This clearly is not the will of the people.
Nancy Pelosi has been lobbied hard, I am sure, by Cheney and AT&T. We can tell because she secretly floated this bill in congress, got it ready, rewritten, and passed in the house on Friday without really anyone noticing. We need new leadership in the house. Hoyer and Pelosi have to go.

Now this bill sits in the Senate, Harry Reid has said he will "try to remove the immunity". Which of course, is complete bullshit. He is the 3rd most powerful person on the hill after Cheney. Harry needs to stop trying to blow smoke up our asses about his lack of ability to kill this bill. He doesn't want to kill it. He wants to pass it. Harry lost his ability to fight with his last stroke. We need new leadership in the senate.

Obama on advice from Toothless Harry Reid, I am sure, has said he supports the bill but not the immunity and he too will "try to remove the immunity" from the bill, but gosh, shucks, what is the guy who is very probably the next president able to really do anyway.

Standing up against Bush and Cheney is not going to hurt his chances in the fall. Caving and listening to what the "polling at 19%" congress has to say will hurt him. Losing the netroots and the grassroots will kill him. I wouldn't be getting cocky if I was him.

Last I heard, Dukakis was visiting professor in the Department of Public Policy at the School of Public Affairs at UCLA.

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My Pick For V.P.

Messr. Henry Rollins, formerly of Black Flag.

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John McCain of the Green Party

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA.... Holy Crap, what a bad speaker... If you haven't seen this, watch it. It's really unbelieveable.

Is he running for city council?

Has he ever used a teleprompter before?

Blinky McSame

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Onwards and Upwards

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South Dakota

With 17% reporting...

Clinton  10,136 56%
Obama     7,836 44% 

By the way, Obama has clinched the Democratic nomination for President of the United States. Who knew!?

Stay tuned to the GNB to find out whitey why'd he do it.

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Countdown

10 to go or something. Jeez I need a beer.

Yes, I miss Steve. The end. You guys have to learn the old Irish white vet way of dealing with grief, bury it deep down inside and try to ignore it for a couple of decades and drink heavily. That is all, now, get back to work.

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Clinton Wins Puerto Rico

With 85% reporting:

Clinton  219,536 68%
Obama    102,304 32%

Currently +18 delegates to help close her 210 gap.

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DNC Rules Against Clinton

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's prospects of persuading Democratic officials to override party rules and recognize all delegates selected in the Florida and Michigan primaries suffered a setback yesterday after lawyers for the party ruled that no more than half of those delegations could be legally recognized.

Democratic National Committee lawyers wrote in a memo that the two states must forfeit at least half of their delegates as punishment for holding primaries earlier than DNC rules allowed. Clinton (N.Y.) prevailed in both contests, although the Democratic candidates had agreed not to campaign in Florida and Michigan, and Sen. Barack Obama removed his name from the Michigan ballot.

The DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee is scheduled to meet Saturday to make a final determination on Florida and Michigan, which would have collectively awarded 368 convention delegates. But in the memo, party lawyers determined that full restoration, as sought by Clinton, would violate DNC rules, although it did note a loophole that would allow her to carry the challenge to the first day of the Democratic National Convention in late August.

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe told reporters that the senator from Illinois is prepared to forfeit a portion of his delegate lead, as part of a compromise to resolve the Florida and Michigan flap. "We don't think it's fair to seat them fully," Plouffe said of the two delegations. But he added, "We're willing to give some delegates here" in order to put the matter to rest. wapo

No surprise here. It was a fantasy that after Florida and Michigan decided to flip the DNC the bird that they would get all of their delegates seated. In other news Nancy says AW HELL NO...

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says she will step in if necessary to make sure the presidential nomination fight between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama does not reach the Democratic national convention - though she believes it could be resolved as early as next week.

Pelosi predicted Wednesday that a presidential nominee will emerge in the week after the final Democratic primaries on June 3, but she said "I will step in"...SFGate.com

Obama should be within 10 delegates of the golden 2,026 number by next week.

Can. He. Go. All. The. Way.

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HBO "Recount" the Reviews are In

Again, due to my far-flung status, I will have to wait to see HBO's "Recount" but I am a big Spacey fan and look forward to hearing what people say about this TV film detailing the events of the 2000 election, recount and controversy in Florida.

Recount tells the story of the immediate aftermath of the 2000 presidential election in the United States, when the state of Florida became a farcical political battleground. With the nation essentially locked in a 50-50 stalemate between Democratic nominee Al Gore and Republican nominee George W. Bush, the election came down to Florida. And Florida couldn't figure out who won.-London Free Press

There is also a wonderful, detailed book about this time call "36 Days" written by correspondents from the New York Times Back to recount, the buzz is that all the principle characters put in stellar performances. I like these folks, and generally respect their work. So this one goes on my must see list.

From the London Free Press again;

Actually, there's only one individual who really gets held up to ridicule in Recount, and that's the woman who was Florida's secretary of state at the time, Republican Katherine Harris, who is played in spectacularly creepy fashion by Dern.

Recount presents Harris as a bizarre combination of vanity and fragility, and as such, she comes across -- and came across in real life, by the way -- as unqualified and unprepared for the significance of her role as, essentially, the person in charge of the election in Florida.

Even Baker knows it. As he watches Harris on TV early in the proceedings, Baker says, This woman is hopeless -- we're going to need some help on this.

All this is pretty ironic as we head toward the showdown on 5/31 and the DNC Rules and Credentials committees make their decision on Michigan, and yes-- Florida delegates for the Democratic primary race.

More reviews of Recount here and here.

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Memorial Day

I don't want to politicize Memorial day, but I hear a lot of reasons from the left about why John McCain would be a bad president. I agree with all if it. Especially that he is doing Ambien© all the time. That's pretty bad if you want to run the most powerful nation on earth. However, before his visit to Baghdad in April 2007 the only thing I had against him really was that he was old as shit. I always figured the "Maverick" thing was bullshit, but I didn't dislike the geezer.

No, I actively started disliking the Senator from Arizona when, like Bush does, he draped himself in soldiers. This time with 2 companies and 5 helicopters of the 101st Airborne in order to make a political ad, and to make his point that it was safe in Baghdad. Which or course it really wasn't. I don't think any vet missed the point of that exercise. John McCain was more than happy to put soldiers lives at risk in order to further his political goals.

I honor John McCain's service to his country, and it's time for him to retire.

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Clinton Sorry For Remark About RFK Assassination

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton on Friday invoked the 1968 assassination of Sen. Robert F. Kennedy in explaining her decision to remain in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, comments that drew criticism from aides to Sen. Barack Obama and cooled speculation that the two may form a joint ticket for the general election.

Yeah, ya think?

Jebus what a boneheaded comment. Bobby Kennedy? Are you shitting me? When I first heard this I thought she was taken out of context or misquoted or a can of soup had fallen on my head. But no, it was true.

My husband did not wrap up the nomination in 1992 until he won the California primary somewhere in the middle of June, right?" she continued. "We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California. --WAPO

Hunh? Your husband had the nomination wrapped up well before California, who are you kidding? Bobby Kennedy was shot on June 5th, not really the "middle of June."

How bad is this campaign? Well, it is sinking 2 political careers, Hillary's and Bill's. Watch how this week is going to be all about Hillary riding out the shitstorm of this unbelievable stupid thing to say.

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Whitey

48%

Of whites 60 and older in Oregon voted for Barack Obama. 51% voted for Clinton, a 3 point spread.

53%

Of whites 45-59 in Oregon voted for Barack Obama.

63%

Of whites 30-44 in Oregon voted for Barack Obama.

71%

Of whites 18-29 in Oregon voted for Barack Obama.
Presumably these are not hard working honkeys.

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