What We Have Done in the Last 7 Months

Pretty good work out of the DNC, especially on ad push back.

It is not enough, and I know we still need more, I also know we've been disappointed-- but I think it is important to point out the good stuff too.

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Sarah Palin Rules Out Running for Senate "the White Hot Spotlight" is Not Appealing?

yeah right...

Looks like Caribou Barbie is not going to run for Senate. More money in Media? More easy money in the Alaska budget? Or does she have someone else in mind for that seat?

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Former Republican vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin says she is not interested in running for the U.S. Senate and prefers her current position as governor of Alaska.

"No, I'm not planning on it because I think the people of Alaska will best be served with me as their governor," Palin, who has two years left in her term, told NBC television in an interview.

Interest in the 44-year-old first-term governor has remained intense since she and Republican presidential candidate John McCain lost the election to Democrat Barack Obama and his vice presidential running mate Joe Biden a week ago. She has granted several television interviews since then.

Palin has been mentioned as a possible presidential candidate in 2012 or a possible contender for the Alaskan U.S. Senate seat held by Ted Stevens, who may be forced out of Congress because he was convicted of seven felonies for failing to report more than $250,000 in gifts.

If Stevens loses his seat, Palin could run for it in a special election.

"You know, when you talk about that white hot spotlight -- that's not really attractive to me," Palin said about running.

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The Only Way McCain Wins (and how to stop him)

The Current Polls & Predictions
With one week to go, here's an overview of my various sources and what they say about the upcoming election. Everything points to a significant Obama victory next week, unless something very odd or untoward happens.

Pollster.com EV map:

Image Source: Pollster.com, 2008.10.27

Pollster.com basically takes all the poll data from all the polls and displays it as an EV map. Yellow states are "tossups", while lightly colored (blue and red) states "lean" to their respective parties. The critical piece of information here is the number in the upper right next to the dark blue legend square: 268. Current polling shows Obama has "strong" polling numbers representing 268 EVs, leaving him only two short of election to pick up over the the "lean democratic" and "tossup" states, while McCain must run the table of all "lean republican", "tossup", AND "lean democratic" states to win.

Electoral-vote.com map:

Image Source: Electoral-Vote.com, 2008.10.27

Electoral-vote.com shows us basically the same data in a slightly different form. Pure white states (MT and ND) are "tied". Light blue and red states (CO, VA, OH, SD, WV) are "weak" for their respective parties while light blue and red outlined states (FL, NV, NC, AZ, GA) are "barely" for their respective parties. You'll notice that the outlined and white states are the "tossup" states in the pollster.com map. Behind the scenes these sites use very similar data, and the conclusion is almost the same. Electoral-vote.com says Obama has 260 EVs locked up in "strong" states, with another 57 "weak" and 58 "barely" to McCain's 134 "strong", 8 "weak" and 15 "barely", with 6 EVs "tied" in MT and ND. Again, Obama needs to pick up very few EVs (10) from the entire range of "weak democratic", "barely democratic", "tied", "barely republican" and "weak republican" in order to win.

Five-thirty-eight.com EV map:

Image Source: FiveThirtyEight.com, 2008.10.27

Five thirty eight.com is not just reporting aggregated polling data. The FAQ explains how they are different:

Firstly, we assign each poll a weighting based on that pollster's historical track record, the poll's sample size, and the recentness of the poll. More reliable polls are weighted more heavily in our averages.

Secondly, we include a regression estimate based on the demographics in each state among our 'polls', which helps to account for outlier polls and to keep the polling in its proper context.

Thirdly, we use an inferential process to compute a rolling trendline that allows us to adjust results in states that have not been polled recently and make them ‘current’.

Fourthly, we simulate the election 10,000 times for each site update in order to provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes based on a historical analysis of polling data since 1952. The simulation further accounts for the fact that similar states are likely to move together, e.g. future polling movement in states like Michigan and Ohio, or North and South Carolina, is likely to be in the same direction.

Five thirty eight.com uses statistical techniques in an attempt to determine which polls are more valid than others, and to extract trend information. Using the processed data, they run Monte Carlo simulations to "predict" the outcome of 10000 simulated elections. The aggregated information from those simulation runs provides them with a "most likely" result, a probability of Democratic or Republican victory, and an estimate of the popular vote. As of 27 October, the most likely result is 351 EV for Obama and 187 EV for McCain, a 96.7% chance that Obama will win, and a popular vote split of 52.4% for Obama to 46% for McCain.

Electoral-vote.com, all EV polling:

Image Source: Electoral-Vote.com, 2008.10.27

Electoral-vote.com also shows us two graphs. This lead graph provides the total EV count polling to each party. Obama has polled above 270 EVs very consistently since he clinched the nomination.

Electoral-vote.com, EVs polling more than 5% only:

Image Source: Electoral-Vote.com, 2008.10.27

This second graph shows only those EVs which poll a 5% or greater difference. Even with that, Obama is above the 270 needed to win the presidency.

Pollster.com gives us a national trend graph showing all their polls as individual dots with a line showing a smoothed average trend. I've included three versions to show just how tricky this kind of analysis can be. The sensitivity of the smoothing indicates how quickly the trendline responds to changes. More sensitive means more quickly. However, more sensitive also means more vulnerable to noise in the data.

Pollster.com More Sensitive Smoothing

Image Source: Pollster.com, 2008.10.27

Pollster.com Medium Smoothing

Image Source: Pollster.com, 2008.10.27

Pollster.com Less Sensitive Smoothing

Image Source: Pollster.com, 2008.10.27

Notice how the trendlines are more jagged in the "more sensitive" graph and how they smooth out as the sensitivity goes down. The "medium" and "less sensitive" graphs show us a pretty consistent picture of Obama running about 50% and McCain somewhere in the 42-43% range. The "more sensitive" graph suggests a hint that Obama's support is weakening and that we might be seeing a significant narrowing (perhaps as much as 3%) of the national gap.

That's not very likely, especially not this close to the election. The gap changes we see now are most likely to be undecideds (although how you can be undecided 19 1/2 months into a 20 month campaign is a little beyond me) making up their minds at the last minute, NOT people suddenly deciding that the candidate they're with has become unacceptable to them. If the change continues over the next couple of days, it may represent an actual shift, but I wouldn't call it a real trend until Thursday and then only if it starts to show up in the less sensitive trend analysis. If I had the actual numbers to play with I might be able to call it sooner, but I don't.

With all the polling and trending suggesting bad national news for McCain, how does he win the election? Watch the video for the answer.

Source Video: Heroes, Season One, Episode "Landslide"
Video Production: Evan Robinson, Group News Blog

Obviously I'm not suggesting that John McCain can win the election by finding an 8-year old African-American child with the power to "talk" to computers. But I am suggesting that the most believable way McCain wins the presidency in 2008 is through election fraud.

Voting Fraud
According to the Brad Blog, we are already seeing "vote flipping" happening during early voting in West Virginia and Texas. Candidate names disappeared from the final review screen in South Carolina. We've even seen at least one case of vote flipping from R to D in Tennessee (although that report appears to be exaggerated -- at least)!

Ultimately, computer voting using machines created by private companies expose our democracy to unacceptable risks. Companies making electronic voting machines have committed to deliver votes for one side. Unvetted software has been installed to run elections. Computers count votes in secret and many make meaningful re-counts impossible.

Vote Suppression
Every election cycle, Republicans launch massive efforts at suppressing voter turnout. They do so by a variety of methods, including not mailing out ballots, circulating flyers with false information about election dates or locations or requirements, purging voter rolls, issuing spurious challenges to voters on election day, even threatening voters with deportation or arrest.

It has been part of the conservative (aka Republican) canon since at least 1980 that low turnout benefits the Right:

How To Stop McCain From Winning

The only way John McCain wins in 2008 is to cheat. Don't let him. We must win by an overwhelming majority in order to take the election. No 2000-style sportsmanship in 2008 if the election is stolen.

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Bloomberg and City Council Overturn the Decision of NY Voters

In spite of the fact that the last two times the term limit issue was voted on in NYC the voters decided IN FAVOR of a 2 term limit-- Mayor Bloomberg and members of the city council voted to waive the rule this cycle so that he could run for a 3rd term as mayor.

By a 29-22 vote, council members handed Mr. Bloomberg his most personal political triumph yet, and dramatically reshaped the political landscape for 2009.

While legal challenges are expected in the days to come, many election law experts believe that the measure will survive. That means Mr. Bloomberg, given his popularity and his intention to spend $80 million to win a third term, would instantly become the favorite in the race.

The mayor had pushed aggressively behind the scenes for the legislation after announcing three weeks ago that he wished to remain in office and steer the city through its deepening economic trouble. -David Chen NYTIMES

So much for democracy.

With basically a limitless budget Mike is a favorite now to win the race easily in 2009. The behind the scenes story about why so many city council members were willing to vote against the people of NY will be coming out in the weeks and months ahead. One point though- the waiver is for this cycle only, and also cleared the way for the council members who would have been term limited out to ALSO run for a 3 term. So I am sure that helped his chances of passing this nefarious measure.

I am not totally against the idea of a third term, but the mayor should have asked the voters not the political establishment. If the voters said yes, let's waive the term limit, then fine. But this way it is the Mayor and 52 people deciding the system of government for all of the millions of citizens of the city.

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Georgia on my mind.

It is Wed. and that means it is time for the wonderful Wednesday Wire; coming out every week. From this week's edition;

ELECTION UPDATE GEORGIA. Five military veterans are running as Democrats against five entrenched Republican members of the House. They are Bill Jones, former Air Force officer against Tom Price in GA – 06; Doug Heckman, former Army Colonel against John Linder in GA-07; Bill Gillespie, retired Army Lt. Col against Jack Kingston in GA – 01; Bobby Saxon, National Guard major against Paul Broun in GA – 10 and Bud Gammon, Air Force Academy grad against Phil Gingrey in GA –11. With the Republicans having a hard time finding top drawer candidates to take on our perennial vulnerables Jim Marshall (GA – 08) and John Barrow (GA -12) (both very conservative Dems)

This expansion of the playing field could make serious trouble for the Georgia GOP. Don’t expect any of the five to win, but in a wave election year, surprises do happen.

My favorite quote from the homepages of the Georgia Fighting 5 is this jem from Bobby Saxon;

I'm as sick of politics as most of you are and this is exactly why I'm running for Congress. I believe our political leaders should serve the best interests of this country. They should work for the good of all people and they should act like adults and find a way to work together for the common good of all Americans. (emphasis, mine)

Hear.Hear!

Read more news, views and state by state analysis from John McQueen at http://www.wednesdaywire.com/ every week. He is a pragmatic progressive and mentor-extraordinaire. Do you know more vets running? More exciting House and Senate races we should be paying attention to? Share in the thread. And here's an old sweet song in honor of the Georgia Fighting 5! Don't hesitate to send them some bloggy-love in the form of contributions. Every little bit can make a big difference in the house races.

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Running for office

Dear GNB family, I am taking another plunge deep into the heart of Democratic Party Politics. I am running for a post as a member of the Democratic National Committee.

I currently serve as chair of Democrats Abroad Japan (kind of like being a democratic party county club leader) But I am putting my hat in the ring for our upcoming election for a DNC position representing the Asia Pacific Region of Democrats Abroad. The election is in two weeks at our region and global caucus which will be held in Vancouver. This is a big step for me, but one that I feel strongly about and I am committed to giving it my all.

This has come about because since 2004 I have taken to heart Howard Dean's comments that voting only gets you a C grade in this day and age, to get a B you must get out there, volunteer, work for a campaign, roll up your sleeves, and for an A you should run for office or take on a leadership role in some way in the party. So I am giving it a try...

The process will be simple, I believe. At the beginning of our Regional Caucus on 4/11 the vote for DNC will be one of the first orders of business. Nominations can and will be taken from the floor, then candidates will briefly speak to the electors and then a vote by show of hands will be taken. The electors are the country chairs, vice chairs or other representatives from the main country committees in our region which include Japan, Thailand, Hong Kong, China, Indonesia, India, the Philippines, and Australia. The votes are weighted by our voting strength in the Global Primary- so if your country committee had good turn out then you have more votes.

Below is my candidate statement. Reading between the lines you can see some of the issues we have been dealing with as a state party. I would appreciate the feedback and advice of the GNB community. Thanks for your time... and I will update you as the process continues.
-tlg

Candidate Statement
Position: DNC Member, Asia Pacific

My name is Lauren Shannon, I am a proud grassroots Democrat and a true believer in pragmatic, progressive politics. This year we are choosing a new person to represent our region as a member of the Democratic National Committee. I want to be that person and believe that I can do a good job in the role. I want to take a few minutes of your time to tell you why.

The DNC seats have often been almost ceremonial in the past but as our region grows and gets organized, we really need to use the opportunity to bring information, share feedback with and get feedback from our region to the DNC meetings and to Washington.

I want to focus on representing the region... and reporting back.

I am a good communicator. I believe in the electorate and in real representational government. So if you choose me to for this post—my main focus will be communication with the chairs and country committee officers- finding out what we can do to give and to get more, with other folks in the DNC. I will work to foster energy, excitement and action - together.

I want to use the opportunity to go to DNC meetings specifically to talk to party folks about our efforts out here. I want to share with them how motivated we are, how the region is growing - and that we should be more on their radar.

I want to encourage VIP/DNC people to visit when they are traveling in the region.

In my role as Chair and previous officer positions in DAJ I have successfully arranged and managed events for visitors like Ambassador Foley, Ambassador Peterson, Congresswoman Hirono, Howard Dean and others. I would use this experience to convince and assure members of the Dem Leadership that trips to Asia are a great means of reaching out to donors, voters and volunteers.

I also want to push for better connections in getting our voting site information and absentee ballot issues on state party and campaign websites.

Some Specifics-

I would commit to doing a podcast and a written report each day of the DNC meetings that folks could listen too or read everywhere. I would also (as much as possible) circulate agendas, reports on DNC conference calls, and share what I learn with all of you. I have the Internet experience and the public service experience to commit to this and follow through on getting out the word.

I believe that real empowerment begins with sharing information and talking, thinking and acting on that information - together.

I also want access to the training and discussions that come out of the DNC meetings and I want the chance to share what I learn with everyone in our region.

I believe in complete transparency- And I believe in encouraging new people in leadership roles all through our group. I am a direct and honest communicator and I will always tell you what I am thinking and will always be interested in what the leaders in the region are thinking. I want to hear how we can best represent our members throughout the Asia Pacific group.

I have both online activist and face to face/door to door experience. I worked in the 2004 Iowa Caucus for Gov. Dean- organizing a group of 3 volunteers and garnering international press coverage which allowed us to grow our membership in Japan. And I organized a group of 11 people from Dems abroad in Japan and the UK to work in Florida (Tampa Bay and Sarasota regions) for the Kerry Campaign and for a down ticket race for Tampa County Board Supervisor of Elections. Our group was called Sunshine and Alligators...and we helped Senator Kerry win in all three precincts. I have also dedicated thousands of hours at home in Japan to register voters, meet and recruit new members, and have tried my best to serve DAJ and the membership first as a fundraiser, then secretary, vice chair and currently chair. I have wanted in the last two years to be more active in our region, and was excited to participate in and support our regional meeting in Thailand, and our Global Primary this year.

These experiences plus decades of support work with various volunteer organizations have given me off line experience that brings a well rounded approach to my political action and activities. I think my energy, outreach skills, and dedication to the region make me an excellent candidate for membership to the DNC.

Online; as a member and officer/ chair of DAJapan I have led the way experimenting and using technology for outreach, via web newsletters,interactive websites, podcasts, and other tech tools. I was also a beta tester of the new international website and still try to help with whatever that development team asks of me. You can see some of the results or my efforts, here:

DAJ Podcast: http://www.dajpodcast.org/

DAJ Webnews: http://dajwebnews.blogspot.com/

Especially in doing the podcasts we have been able to interview and reach out to members of congress and other Dem VIPS -- and I would want to continue in this effort at the DNC meetings.

In closing, I feel that though we have at least two candidates for this position and both of us are dedicated, talented women, (others may be still be nominated form the floor of our meeting) but we as a region should try to increase the number of people who represent us at the international level. No one candidate should hold multiple seats in the DPCA/ DNC leadership, as we can use the chance of these positions to actively include multiple people's perspectives. This limiting of seats/ voices in Democrats Abroad is not against any rules, but I think that it is in our members' best interest to have as many different people as possible participating at the international and the DNC leadership level. I was disappointed that both the European DNC seat, and the Americas seat will be served by people who already have a significant role in the international leadership as regional chairs, ensuring that fewer members will participate at those levels. I hope we can avoid this same narrowing of the participation in our own region.

I can't wait to meet folks at the regional/ global meetings coming up.I was so sad to miss the Singapore meeting. I am happy to report that my travel schedule and ability to commit to the DNC meetings is looking great for the future. And I am ready to commit to doing the best job that I can if I am given this opportunity to serve by our electors.

I would love your feedback, comments and questions.

So, my beloved blog family-- what do you think? Is there more I should say or do? Does anyone have advice on running for DNC positions? Or other state party elections? I will be happy to put this behind me, and serve if I get the chance, as I am not one for horsetrading and the backroom deals that are often associated with these kinds of positions... But I will try my best.

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