Voting Tips

photo Frank Siteman/Allposters

How To Have YOUR Vote COUNT

Vote early: Group News Blog STRONGLY recommends you vote EARLY.

Voting by mail: If you have already received a vote-by-mail ballot, make SURE to vote right away. (Don't forget postage and to sign the security envelope. It is your signature under penalty of perjury on the security envelope, matched against your signature on file with the elections office which validates your ballot. Without your signature your ballot will not be counted.)

Personally, I think if you have an opportunity to drop your ballot off at a polling site in person, you should do so. That way you KNOW your ballot got there; otherwise you are relying on the Post Office... which is reliable. However this election, personally, I want to be CERTAIN. It's a little thing, but in Washington State in 2004, the Statehouse was decided by 133 votes.

Provisional ballots: If you know you are a registered voter and someone tries to challenge your vote or tries to make you vote on a "provisional" ballot, insist they contact their supervisor or the county elections commissioner. In the 2004 election depending on the state, between 30-38% of the more than 1.6 million provisional ballots cast were not counted.

DO NOT VOTE ON A PROVISIONAL BALLOT IF YOU KNOW YOU ARE A REGISTERED VOTER. INSIST ON YOUR RIGHT TO VOTE.

If you have trouble, call the national voter protection hotline at 1-877-US-4-OBAMA (1-877-874-6226).

Straight-party voting: Don't do it. If your ballot lets you check one box and vote for all Democrats, don't. Seems like a great idea. Problem is, the programing is easy to screw up and in some states, voting the straight-party ticket means you've NOT voted for president.

Instead, vote for each candidate individually. Just look for the "D" for Democratic Party after their name. Then make certain the election software doesn't flip the vote on the screen in front of your eyes. Of course, if you have a paper ballot that won't be possible.

Paper ballot: Ask for a paper ballot. Even if they have touch-screen or other electronic machines, ask for a paper ballot. If they have one, ask them to give it to you. You don't need to explain -- although "it's easier for my disability to work with paper" is simple to say. When they ask you what your disability is, say "I don't mean to be disrespectful, but it's really none of your business. May I have a paper ballot now please?" Then keep your mouth shut as you stare them down till they give you what you asked for. *smiles sweetly*

If you are voting in person, make CERTAIN to LEAVE ENOUGH TIME. More people will vote Tuesday, November 4 than in any election in U.S. history. This is why we want you to vote early if at all possible.

Find Your Polling Place NOW. If you can vote early, vote early.

Problems: Take a CAMERA or VIDEO CAMERA with you. Record your votes, especially if you have electronic touch-screen voting systems, the kind which have been "flipping votes." The only way to prove the systems are flipping votes is with VIDEO. Video the screen as you vote. Watch carefully to make certain your vote does not get flipped for a candidate or initiative you are against. If that happens, STOP.

Velvet Revolution

What To Do If You See Voting Machines Flipping Votes

Early voting has begun. We strongly recommend using paper ballots whenever possible. Many states allow the use of paper ballots, but you have to ask for one. Ask.

But in some states and counties, voters are required to use the electronic voting machines. And there are a growing number of reports about electronic voting machines flipping some votes from one candidate to another.

So if you're voting on an electronic voting machine and you see your votes being flipped (or if the machine malfunctions in any other way), what should you do?

Here are some suggestions from election integrity experts at TrueVote.us, and from Emily Levy of Velvet Revolution's StandingForVoters.org and Ellen Theisen of VotersUnite.org.

• Get the machine's serial number, if possible
• Call over a poll supervisor to observe the problem
• Insist on filling out a problem report
• Refuse to vote on that machine
• Request that the machine be taken out of service and impounded for later forensic examination
• Tell all the voters waiting in line exactly which machine flipped your vote (third machine from the left, or whatever)
• Report the problem via election integrity hotlines, twitter, and the voter suppression wiki. Information on how to do that is here. [Jesse: Also call the national voter protection hotline at 1-877-US-4-OBAMA (1-877-874-6226)]
• Call the county, city, and state election offices and report the problem.
Find those phone numbers here.
• Call reporters and tell them about the problem

And also, please keep in mind that not seeing flipped votes does not indicate that votes are recorded correctly, as they can be flipped invisibly. That's just one reason why we strongly recommend using paper ballots whenever possible.

Got all that?

Simple Tips...

• Vote early. Make SURE your friends and family vote also.
• If voting by mail, use postage and sign the security envelope.
• Don't vote "the straight party" line. Vote for each individual candidate.
  
• If voting in person, go early and be prepared to wait.
• Don't let people make you vote "provisionally." Insist on a regular ballot.
• Photograph/video your voting process.
• If there is trouble with your machine, demand a different machine.
• Then contact everyone with your photos/videos (including GNB.)

The key information is below.

It's not to late to DONATE TO YOUR FAVORITE CANDIDATES.

Please let us know of your voting adventures.
We'll keep opening voting threads between now through Election Day.

[ Find Your Polling Place | Voting Info For Your State | Know Your Voting Rights | Report Voting Problems ]

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The Only Way McCain Wins (and how to stop him)

The Current Polls & Predictions
With one week to go, here's an overview of my various sources and what they say about the upcoming election. Everything points to a significant Obama victory next week, unless something very odd or untoward happens.

Pollster.com EV map:

Image Source: Pollster.com, 2008.10.27

Pollster.com basically takes all the poll data from all the polls and displays it as an EV map. Yellow states are "tossups", while lightly colored (blue and red) states "lean" to their respective parties. The critical piece of information here is the number in the upper right next to the dark blue legend square: 268. Current polling shows Obama has "strong" polling numbers representing 268 EVs, leaving him only two short of election to pick up over the the "lean democratic" and "tossup" states, while McCain must run the table of all "lean republican", "tossup", AND "lean democratic" states to win.

Electoral-vote.com map:

Image Source: Electoral-Vote.com, 2008.10.27

Electoral-vote.com shows us basically the same data in a slightly different form. Pure white states (MT and ND) are "tied". Light blue and red states (CO, VA, OH, SD, WV) are "weak" for their respective parties while light blue and red outlined states (FL, NV, NC, AZ, GA) are "barely" for their respective parties. You'll notice that the outlined and white states are the "tossup" states in the pollster.com map. Behind the scenes these sites use very similar data, and the conclusion is almost the same. Electoral-vote.com says Obama has 260 EVs locked up in "strong" states, with another 57 "weak" and 58 "barely" to McCain's 134 "strong", 8 "weak" and 15 "barely", with 6 EVs "tied" in MT and ND. Again, Obama needs to pick up very few EVs (10) from the entire range of "weak democratic", "barely democratic", "tied", "barely republican" and "weak republican" in order to win.

Five-thirty-eight.com EV map:

Image Source: FiveThirtyEight.com, 2008.10.27

Five thirty eight.com is not just reporting aggregated polling data. The FAQ explains how they are different:

Firstly, we assign each poll a weighting based on that pollster's historical track record, the poll's sample size, and the recentness of the poll. More reliable polls are weighted more heavily in our averages.

Secondly, we include a regression estimate based on the demographics in each state among our 'polls', which helps to account for outlier polls and to keep the polling in its proper context.

Thirdly, we use an inferential process to compute a rolling trendline that allows us to adjust results in states that have not been polled recently and make them ‘current’.

Fourthly, we simulate the election 10,000 times for each site update in order to provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes based on a historical analysis of polling data since 1952. The simulation further accounts for the fact that similar states are likely to move together, e.g. future polling movement in states like Michigan and Ohio, or North and South Carolina, is likely to be in the same direction.

Five thirty eight.com uses statistical techniques in an attempt to determine which polls are more valid than others, and to extract trend information. Using the processed data, they run Monte Carlo simulations to "predict" the outcome of 10000 simulated elections. The aggregated information from those simulation runs provides them with a "most likely" result, a probability of Democratic or Republican victory, and an estimate of the popular vote. As of 27 October, the most likely result is 351 EV for Obama and 187 EV for McCain, a 96.7% chance that Obama will win, and a popular vote split of 52.4% for Obama to 46% for McCain.

Electoral-vote.com, all EV polling:

Image Source: Electoral-Vote.com, 2008.10.27

Electoral-vote.com also shows us two graphs. This lead graph provides the total EV count polling to each party. Obama has polled above 270 EVs very consistently since he clinched the nomination.

Electoral-vote.com, EVs polling more than 5% only:

Image Source: Electoral-Vote.com, 2008.10.27

This second graph shows only those EVs which poll a 5% or greater difference. Even with that, Obama is above the 270 needed to win the presidency.

Pollster.com gives us a national trend graph showing all their polls as individual dots with a line showing a smoothed average trend. I've included three versions to show just how tricky this kind of analysis can be. The sensitivity of the smoothing indicates how quickly the trendline responds to changes. More sensitive means more quickly. However, more sensitive also means more vulnerable to noise in the data.

Pollster.com More Sensitive Smoothing

Image Source: Pollster.com, 2008.10.27

Pollster.com Medium Smoothing

Image Source: Pollster.com, 2008.10.27

Pollster.com Less Sensitive Smoothing

Image Source: Pollster.com, 2008.10.27

Notice how the trendlines are more jagged in the "more sensitive" graph and how they smooth out as the sensitivity goes down. The "medium" and "less sensitive" graphs show us a pretty consistent picture of Obama running about 50% and McCain somewhere in the 42-43% range. The "more sensitive" graph suggests a hint that Obama's support is weakening and that we might be seeing a significant narrowing (perhaps as much as 3%) of the national gap.

That's not very likely, especially not this close to the election. The gap changes we see now are most likely to be undecideds (although how you can be undecided 19 1/2 months into a 20 month campaign is a little beyond me) making up their minds at the last minute, NOT people suddenly deciding that the candidate they're with has become unacceptable to them. If the change continues over the next couple of days, it may represent an actual shift, but I wouldn't call it a real trend until Thursday and then only if it starts to show up in the less sensitive trend analysis. If I had the actual numbers to play with I might be able to call it sooner, but I don't.

With all the polling and trending suggesting bad national news for McCain, how does he win the election? Watch the video for the answer.

Source Video: Heroes, Season One, Episode "Landslide"
Video Production: Evan Robinson, Group News Blog

Obviously I'm not suggesting that John McCain can win the election by finding an 8-year old African-American child with the power to "talk" to computers. But I am suggesting that the most believable way McCain wins the presidency in 2008 is through election fraud.

Voting Fraud
According to the Brad Blog, we are already seeing "vote flipping" happening during early voting in West Virginia and Texas. Candidate names disappeared from the final review screen in South Carolina. We've even seen at least one case of vote flipping from R to D in Tennessee (although that report appears to be exaggerated -- at least)!

Ultimately, computer voting using machines created by private companies expose our democracy to unacceptable risks. Companies making electronic voting machines have committed to deliver votes for one side. Unvetted software has been installed to run elections. Computers count votes in secret and many make meaningful re-counts impossible.

Vote Suppression
Every election cycle, Republicans launch massive efforts at suppressing voter turnout. They do so by a variety of methods, including not mailing out ballots, circulating flyers with false information about election dates or locations or requirements, purging voter rolls, issuing spurious challenges to voters on election day, even threatening voters with deportation or arrest.

It has been part of the conservative (aka Republican) canon since at least 1980 that low turnout benefits the Right:

How To Stop McCain From Winning

The only way John McCain wins in 2008 is to cheat. Don't let him. We must win by an overwhelming majority in order to take the election. No 2000-style sportsmanship in 2008 if the election is stolen.

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Upholding Voting Rights- a Win in Michigan

The ACLU is doing critical work in Voting Rights Protection. And we had a big win in Michigan. A judge today ruled that Michigan’s voter removal program violates federal law and ordered the state to stop illegally purging voters from the rolls.

Judge Stephen J. Murphy of the U.S. District Court of the Eastern District of Michigan ruled that one of Michigan’s voter removal programs violates the National Voter Registration Act of 1993 (NVRA). In question was a Michigan state law requiring local clerks to nullify the registrations of newly-registered voters whenever their voter identification cards are returned by the post office as undeliverable. (This would be a big deal in areas with recent foreclosures for sure!)

Detroit elections officials report that nearly 30,000 voters per year in that city alone are removed from the rolls as a result of this state election law.

The NVRA permits voters to remain on the voter rolls for at least two federal elections after voter registration cards are returned. So the Micigan state removal law was clearly in violation. It is unknown how this will effect people that have already been purged but this is a good win for We the People.

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Concerned Voters Vs. The VA: Winning One for the Good Guys

In May, myself and many of my friends who have a deep interest in Veterans care and assistance were outraged that the VA decided to ban all non-partisan, voter registration assistance at all VA Hospitals, Nursing homes, shelters and other care facilities. Their weak and pathetic attempts at covering up voter suppression of our wounded vets was to say that the voter assistance efforts disrupted operations at their facilities and that doctors and nurses were complaining. Subsequent requests for evidence of this were of course ignored and no evidence of disruptive outcomes from voter assistance were ever produced.

The outrage over this, at home and overseas where there are VA hospitals that were offering voter assistance for absentee ballot requests, was huge. Voter groups, Congress people, and Vets joined forces and waged a pitched battle against this attempt to disenfranchise veterans.

But there is good news.

WASHINGTON; NY TIMES — The Department of Veterans Affairs said Monday that it would no longer ban voter registration drives among veterans living at federally run nursing homes, shelters for the homeless and rehabilitation centers across the country.

In May, the department said such drives would violate the prohibition on political activity by federal employees and would be disruptive.

The reversal came after months of pressure from state election officials, voting rights groups and federal lawmakers who said that such drives made it easier for veterans to take part in the political process.

The reasons behind this ban are pretty clear. FEC reports a huge increase in donations to Democratic candidates esp. Barack Obama, from APO boxes and military personale. So someone was, I assume, tasked to discourage these disloyal veterans from exercising their right to vote.

Thankfully we won this one, AND in time to get these men and women registered.

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These Kids Will Vote; Part 2

The Kids in Prairie View continue their battle for voting rights. These are the same Texas Uni. students that marched 1000 strong 10 miles to vote in their primary this year when the county did not provide adequate voting centers near the campus.

Recent cases being heard focus on events like these;

In 2004, Oliver Kitzman, then the Waller County district attorney, challenged the students’ right to cast ballots here rather than in their home communities, although the Supreme Court had long ago decided they could. Students, claiming that the county’s white residents feared the voting power of the predominantly black 9,000-member student body, marched in protest, and Mr. Abbott wrote an opinion supporting them. Mr. Kitzman soon retired, and students continued to cast ballots here.

But other voting rights disputes have since erupted. Before the 2006 election, Judge Charleston said in an interview, he personally registered about 1,000 students. But on Election Day, he said, hundreds of them were turned away as not registered to vote. The registration cards were later found in county offices, he said.-NY Times

The fight goes on, and it is one worth keeping an eye on.

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