Forty percent of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. Twenty-two percent thought John McCain won. Thirty-eight percent saw it as a draw.
Forty-six percent of uncommitted voters said their opinion of Obama got better tonight.
Sixty-eight percent of uncommitted voters think Obama would make the right decisions about the economy. Forty-one percent think McCain would.
Obama is winning.
Watch how the polling moves over the next few days. Electoral-Vote.com Well known, well respected, been around for a while.
Hominid Views University of Washington Statistics Professor I know and respect him. Good guy. I like his numbers.
Watch out these numbers shift over the next three days; it will take three full days for the numbers to reflect tonight's debate.
Remember -- it's ELECTORAL VOTE that matters. One vote is all it takes (except in two states) to win that state. National polls don't mean anything, not really. This is 50 state races for President.
Use this post as an OPEN THREAD for electoral politics. Also talk Senate and Congressional races.
Update 10:15 pm:
The above snap poll confirms Sen. Barack Obama is going to win the election.
Obama base: 40% McCain base: 35% Uncommitted: 25%
Over the next month that 25% will break out... Obama: 10% McCain: 5% Uncommitted: 10%
With one week left the numbers will be:
Obama: 50% McCain 40% Undecided: 10%
Obama needs to win at 60% to win the election.
Or the Bradley Effect (people saying they'll vote for a Black, but not) gets him.
Or voter fraud by Republicans (caging, electronic vote flipping, voter ID, and so on)
Each State is its own election. Obama doesn't need 60% NATIONALLY. He needs 60% in the States he's going to win for certain.
The final 10% undecideds will break out the same as the snap poll 40/25:
Obama 40% McCain 25% The last 35% of the 10% undecideds splits the same, 25/10 which gives us a total of: Obama 65% McCain 35% of the final 10% Which is: Obama 6.5% McCain 3.5%
TEN PERCENTAGE POINTS nationally over McCain expressed in 50 individual states, some of which Obama will blow out by 30-40 points, others where he will lose by 30-40 points, translates into a 100 point Electoral Vote victory, roughly 370 EV for Obama.
Sen. Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States.
There's more...
So far, Obama has missed a number of chances to hit back hard. And McCain keeps lying.
6:26 pm:
McCain is lying about tax breaks. He's simply lying.
Obama says, "That's simply not true", and hits back with "Your plan would give the oil companies $4 Billion dollars." McCain looks like an OLD man, totally at a loss for words.
Obama needs to just say, YOU ARE LYING. Is it possible for you reply without lying?
6:38:
Obama: You voted with the President 95% of the time. How can you say now you're against the budget when you were for it?
McCain: I'm well known as the Maverick of the Senate. I was against the Budget, against the war, against everything, and I'm glad I have a Maverick with me as a partner.
OH MY FUCKING GOD. And the moderator just moved on to the next question. Oh.My.God.
6:45:
Obama is on the attack, big time.
McCain: Senator Obama doesn't understand the difference between a strategy and a tactic. Then tells a story about soldiers reenlisting. Then LIES about Obama on cutting funds for troops. Again.
Obama cuts him short. Says that simply isn't so. Said also, I DO understand difference. Here is difference. Furthermore, here is how we should do this. And this is the result.
McCain is winning on raw emotion. He is reaching his base.
Obama is on the defense. He keeps having to say, "that's not true, that's not true." That is DEFENSE.
Obama needs to rock McCain back on his heels. Obama needs to CLOBBER McCain. McCain is lying all over, but they are simple lies, lies which will work with McCain's base, and with simple undecideds who don't pay attention. People vote on emotion and character and trust. Onama is defending and McCain's simple lies may work for this debate if Obama doesn't get off his ass and KICK MCCAIN IN THE FUCKING BALLS. In a post-partisan way.
7:00
McCain keeps telling stories. It's all about stories for McCain.
Obama is clearly fed up with McCain.
Problem is, being fed up comes across. The undecideds are not going to like this.
McCain is also coming across as, um, bluffing. He's obviously not as smart as Obama. He is obviously a D- student against a Harvard A+ Honors graduate.
Oh fuck. Obama just made a fucking PUN. Dumb, dumb, dumbshit.
STOP BEING THE SMARTEST KID IN THE CLASS. Now he's playing back and forth doing careful pronunciation between Iraq, Iran, and centrifuges. Jesus.
Well, we're going to see who wins the debate.
The SMART KID WHO IS CLEARLY RIGHT AND EVERYONE KNOWS IT, or the DUMB LYING ONE WITH LOTS OF EMOTION.
It is going to come down to how bad everyone thinks this shit is. If people think this shit is TRULY bad, Obama wins. If people think it isn't that bad, they'll give it to the old white guy. Anything before giving it to the ni***r arrogant smart ass who knows everything. You only vote for him if EVERYTHING is fucked. Truly everything.
So the outcome of this debate (the polls three days from now) will tell us how people view how bad things are. 'Cause Obama sure as hell has failed to take this to McCain. He is STILL coming across as the smart kid, and McCain is still the dumb guy who lies and tells stories that don't really have any point.
7:15
Obama: A resurgent Russia is a threat. You can not be a 21st Century Superpower and act like a 20th Century Dictator.
Nearby countries should be free to join NATO and we should have a action plan to bring them in.
We need to work with Russia, not based on staring into his eyes and seeing his soul, not to go back to the Cold War, but to head off nuclear proliferation.
McCain: I look at Putin and I see only three letters: K and G and B. It's all about oil.
Obama: It isn't just about oil. It's about solar and other alternate fuels.
McCain: It's about drilling. Drill offshore. And nukes. That is what will make the difference. Obama is totally against nukes.
Obama: No, actually, what I said was, you have to store the fuel safely. Once again you are misrepresenting me.
McCain: adfadfadfgadjglaj (Talks over Obama. Again.)
7:26
PBS: How much safer are we now than after 9/11?
McCain: Much safer than the day after.
Obama: Need to focus on harbors. Nuclear proliferation. Gives credit to McCain for his work on torture (Ed note: Idiot... You don't give points to your opponent during your close.) And (missed this one. Sorry.)
Final Statements
McCain: Obama doesn't get it. Withdrawing from Iraq, date certain means everything would be lost if we do what Obama says.
Obama: Over the last eight years, the administration and Sen McCain have been solely focused on Iraq, while Bin Laden is active and not captured. While China is loaning us Billions of dollars and they are active everywhere. We are missing what they are doing, not to mention our economy is being destroyed while our military and veterans affairs are ruined because of the destruction of the economy due to this war and lack of a broad strategic vision. That is what I'm looking to restore.
McCain: We've seen this stubbornness before in this administration. We need more flexibility in a President of the United States. The veterans know me and love me, and I love them. I'll take care of them.
Ed note: WHAT! McCain just compared Obama's plan for withdrawing from Iraq, more accurately, McCain's LIES about Obama's plan for withdrawing from Iraq, with Bush's staying in Iraq: "We've seen this stubbornness before in this administration." Holy SHIT. McCain simply can NOT STOP LYING.
Obama: In the 60s my father who came from Kenya, wrote letter after letter to come to college, because the notion was no other country in the world was you could make it if you tried. Part of how we're going to make America safe is, we're going to invest in issues like education, issues that make ordinary Americans safe.
Jim: October 2, Vice Presidential Debate
SUMMARY
OBAMA WINS. Being Presidential: Obama Toughness: McCain Character: Obama Lying: McCain --> Obama wins big-time! Trust: Obama (See Lying) --> McCain loses big-time! Smart ass/arrogance: Obama --> McCain wins Story telling instead of knowing what he's doing: McCain --> Obama wins
Bottom line: Obama Wins Because when the shit hits the fan, you don't turn to the D- student with good stories and a golf game. You turn to the smart person who knows what the hell they're doing, a well-designed plan, and enormous patience. In moments of crisis, you don't want a hot-head running the show; you want someone fully trustworthy.
McCain did well on toughness but really what he had was stories. McCain obviously failed at having the facts. So he lied. Over and over again.
Obama did great on facts, but not so great on emotion. Obama failed to kick McCain's ass or put him on serious defense. So Obama ended up on defense to McCain's emotion with "So that's just not true" and "Well that's just not true" followed by explaining to McMain what the facts in question actually were. And how much they cost!!
McCain kept speaking over Obama. We could say Obama let him, or McCain didn't give Obama a chance to speak. I think both are valid. The old guy may simply not have heard Obama, Obama may have simply been being polite or not wanted to be rude to his elder, or on the flip side, McCain may have been aggressive, and Obama may have been unwilling to contest the floor. Regardless, McCain comes out the looser I think, over the long-haul. He looks distracted and unaware. The framing/direction by the PBS camera team didn't help him, as he was cross-framed, looking in the wrong direction. Plus McCain himself was always hunched over, refusing to ever look Obama in the eye.
McCain looks petulant, old, and angry.
Obama looked Presidental. He demonstrated patience. He showed control, control of the facts.
A Great idea! Lawrence Lessig and a heavy hitting group of online organizers, bloggers and groups have called for McCain and Obama to bring the debates into the Internet age by embracing two "open debate" principles. This is being covered widely in the blogosphere. But everyone can help get the word out.
Open Debate Coalition
Dear Senator McCain and Senator Obama,
We are a coalition of people and organizations across the ideological spectrum asking you to make this year's presidential debates more "of the people" than ever before by bringing them more fully into the Internet age.
Specifically, we ask you to embrace these two "open debate" principles for the 2008 debates:
1. The presidential debates are for the benefit of the public. Therefore, the right to speak about the debates ought to be "owned" by the public, not controlled by the media. During the primaries, a large coalition asked that media companies release rights to presidential debate video to ensure that key moments can be legally blogged about, shared on YouTube, or otherwise shared without fear of legal repercussion.
CNN, ABC, and NBC agreed to release video rights. But one media company threatened legal action against Senator McCain for using a debate clip to spread a message. Such control over political speech is inconsistent with our democracy.
We therefore call upon both candidates to commit to a principle that whenever you debate publicly, the raw footage of that debate will be dedicated to the public domain. Those in charge of the video feed should be directed to make it free for anyone to use.
2. "Town hall" Internet questions should be chosen by the people, not solely by the media.
The two campaigns recently said of the October 7 debate, "In the spirit of the Town Hall, all questions will come from the audience (or Internet), and not the moderator." We agree with the spirit of this statement. In order to ensure that the Internet portion of this debate is true bottom-up democracy, the format needs to allow the public to help select the questions in addition to asking them.
This cycle's YouTube debates were a milestone for Internet participation in presidential debates. But they put too much discretion in the hands of gatekeepers. Many of the questions chosen by TV producers were considered gimmicky and not hard-hitting enough, and never would have bubbled up on their own.
This "bubble up" idea is the essence of the Internet as we know it. The best ideas rise to the top, and the wisdom of crowds prevails. We'd propose debate organizers utilize existing bubble-up voting technology and choose Internet questions from the top 25 that bubbled up. We ask you to instruct the October 7 debate planners to use bubble-up technology in this fashion.
This is a historic election. The signers of this letter don't agree on every issue. But we do agree that in order for Americans to make the best decision for president, we need open debates that are "of the people" in the ways described above. You have the power to make that happen, and we ask you to do so.
Thank you for your willingness to take these ideas to heart. If you have any questions, please contact: OpenDebateCoalition@gmail.com
“That Ain't A Rip Cord You're Tuggin' At, Honey...”
When I left the house Wednesday for work, the talk was all about John McCain's poll numbers being on the verge of cratering “Deep Impact” style. There was a perfect storm of bad news for him in recent days—the economy, which he has famously said he knows very little about (as proven by his “fundamentally sound” mega-gaffe last week) dragging its ass so hard that it's got concrete splinters, the abysmal performance of his plastic bubble-fied running “mate” Sarah “In what respect” Palin, his campaign manager Rick Davis getting caught in the lie about his taking money as a lobbyist, and when that gravy train ended (Mere weeks ago), and perhaps worst of all, his mumbly, drifting style on the stump of late, a disoriented demeanor that makes Bob Dole look like Jack LaLanne and Mark Twain rolled into one.
It was looking grim, people.
So, off I went to the job where I immersed myself in my tasks, and when I checked in on the world via Sen. Ted Stevens' informational tubes and pipes that night, I found that ol' Senator Tough Guy basically whined for a “time out” from campaigning and tonight's debate like some frantic-assed basketball coach whose team is in the midst of getting blown off the court by an opponent on a twenty-point run.
'I can't defend against you. So forgive me while I stall to break the momentum.'
That's pretty much what was happening there.
And it wasn't even a well-done stall. Picture McCain crazily waving his arms to the ref on the sideline to get his attention, making a lame-ass “T” with his hands, and then, tripping over a bench player's outstretched feet and falling head-first into a spectator's plate of nachos. “Blapp!” Using the economic crisis and the need for a bailout as the dodge for his own “bailing out” when his campaign went bad was something beyond craven.
It was flat out cowardly.
Spare me the tripe about his service and his bravery during the worst moments of it. That was forty-goddamnned years ago, a time when even he's noted that he wasn't the supposedly more enlightened, more seasoned person he is now. Bravery isn't unconditional in the real world. Otherwise tough-as-nails fellas who've put their lives on the line in the ring, on the battlefield and in other dangerous situations have been known to behave in the most punk-assed of ways in other instances. They will beat defenseless women and kids, or lie to cover their asses about the most trivial things imaginable. One can be brave, and be a yellow-backed cur all at the same time. So, I'll say it again.
John McCain's desperate little stunt on Wednesday was flat-out cowardly.
And in being cowardly, it was also messy. The attempt to make his ducking out of the debate look noble got blown out of the water by one stupid move—his secondary back out of an appearance on David Letterman that night. He tried to come off all “Batman quickly responding to a furtive bat-signal in the gloomy Gotham sky” with his rushing off to D.C. to fix the busted economy and standing Letterman up. What he didn't count on was that his stupid post-cancellation steps would be so easily traced.
You see, McCain didn't hustle off to stately McCain Manor (Number four that is—the one he keeps in D.C.) to become the avenging BatMcCain. He sat his pompous ass down in a make-up chair a few blocks away from Letterman's studio getting make up applied like he was Bette-fucking-Davis on the Warner Brothers lot at CBS' news studio for an interview with Katie Couric. He didn't even leave New York until yesterday afternoon after a bullshit photo-op at the Clinton Global Initiative. And when Dave got wind of McLiar's perfidy, he got a camera hook-up to where he was getting his pancake and old-man-be-gone cream applied, and ragged the hell out of him for his cheesey little dodge. On T.V.
The money quotes?
“Hey John...I've got a question...NEED A RIDE TO THE AIRPORT?”
And...
“We're told now that the Senator has concluded his interview with Katie Couric and he's now on Rachael Ray's show making Veal Piccata.”
But America didn't need Letterman's scathing call-out to know that McCain was running a 28-cent game with his excuse-making. It was apparent to anyone with eyes to see and ears to hear the news of the previous days. And the fact that his “suspension / cancellation / punk-ass fleeing came in the midst of his debate prep for tonight's event stinks to high heaven.
What do you want to bet his increasingly incoherent and discombobulated self was not doing well in the mocks? To where his rage-o-holic ass probably just said, “Fuck it. I'm bagging on this. I'll find a way to make it work.”
For your reading enjoyment, my re-enactment / dramatization of what went brought this loopy lunacy on:
INT. WALDORF ASTORIA HOTEL, NEW YORK CITY - MID-AFTERNOON
WE ARE IN A HOTEL SUITE WHERE JOHN McCAIN HAS BEEN PREPPING FOR HIS DEBATE WITH BARACK OBAMA. CAMERA MOVES IN PAST THE FRONT DOOR AND WE COME TO A CLOSED DOOR OF THE SUITE, ON WHICH HANGS A SIGN READING “DO NOT DISTURB” MOCK DEBATE IN PROGRESS.”
WE HEAR A LOUD BANG ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOOR AS THE SIGN SHUDDERS, AND THEN FALLS OFF. THE DOOR SWINGS OPEN AND WE SEE A STAFFER EXIT WHILE HOLDING HIS HEAD WHICH IS BLEEDING FROM A SMALL CUT. HE SHAKES HIS HEAD AS HE GOES AND THE CAMERA PUSHES IN. WE NOW SEE A SMASHED MUG ON THE FLOOR AND A HUGE PUDDLE OF POSTUM™ THERE WITH IT.
THEN WE SEE AN ANGRY McCAIN PROWLING ABOUT THE ROOM—RED-FACED AND SCREAMING.
McCAIN: (SCREAMING AT THE EXITING AIDE) That's right, THAT'S RIGHT! And there's more where that came from buddy! Try to embarrass me with your fancy-shmancy financial talk! I KNEW Dow Jones was different from Dow Chemical! I just wanted to see, if you knew! So suck on that, smarty-pants!
AIDE 2: (TENTATIVE) Sir, I understand your anger, what with-
AIDE 2 and McCAIN : (IN UNISON)-your / my being in a POW camp for four Goddamned years...
AIDE 2:...But you didn't have to throw a mug of Postum™ at him.
McCAIN: The son-of-a-bitch asked me tough questions! What kind of shit is that? It's un-American! He might as well have called me a “baby-killer”! I was a POW! Don't I get to have.. I dunno, a book in front of me when I answer the questions?
AIDE 2: No, sir.
McCAIN: Can I wear a wig? To hide the wire to...whaddyacallit...a transformer?
AIDE 2: Don't you mean a transmitter?
McCAIN STIFFLY PICKS UP THE JAR OF POSTUM FROM A TRAY AND CHUCKS IT AT THE AIDE, WHO DUCKS IT AS IT SMASHES AGAINST THE WALL.
McCAIN: Little tired of this “correction” crap, pal. Sick and tired of it. I don't do numbers. I do...stiff-assed fist pumps when a a drone blows up brown people. That's how I roll. I don't believe I have to put up with trivial shit like this. They'll try to trip me up, asking me silly stuff about...about fucking ARMs and whatnot. See, they'll think I'm gonna screw up and get mad 'cause I'll be thinking they're makin' fun of my actual arms—m' guns! (FLAPS THEM STIFFLY) But they won't give me credit for knowing that A-R-M really stands for manufacturers suggested retail price—
AIDE 2: Its stands for Adjustable rate mortgage...(DUCKS BEHIND THE CLIPBOARD HE'S HOLDING)
BOILING MAD, McCAIN LOOKS FOR SOMETHING ELSE NEARBY TO THROW. THERE IS NOTHING. HE STIFFLY WALKS TOARD THE AIDE.
McCAIN: Get on your knees so I can choke you unconscious. Now.
AIDE 2: (SIGHS) Please, sir...it's my job to prep you.
McCAIN: Grrrrrr! I don't need this! Damn economy! All this number sh-mumber crap. (IN A WHINY VOICE) “Senator, how many houses do you have?” (REGULAR VOICE) Um, thirteen of course. Jesus!
AIDE 2: (MUTTERING TO HIMSELF) Oh, for Christ's sake...
McCAIN I CAN'T DO THIS! Too many numbers! Too much to memorize! My God, I've lost six houses and probably one of my many hot-air balloons! There's no way I can debate on Friday. I'm fucking traumatized. America's traumatized! (BEAT) Okay. That's it. We're blowing this shit off. You pack my bag with great anger, right now! Just throw my stuff in there all haphazardly like they do in the movies. I'm off to D.C. to save my ass—um, save America's ass from an economic meltdown. (BEAT) Now, man! Angrily pack my shit!
AIDE 2: Yes sir.
McCAIN Gas up the jet and we'll get the hell outta here pronto! After we hit Couric for the interview, Nathan's for a hot dog, the Bronx zoo so I can pet a Lemur, Yankee Stadium, 'cause I hear Whitey Ford's on the mound tonight, and maybe a nosh at Toots Shor's. Then, (SMACKS HIS HAND TO INDICATE A PLANE'S TAKE-OFF) we're bats outta hell from Idlewild. I've got an economy to pretend to fix! Chop, chop!
AIDE 2: Yes sir.
Needless to say, the stunt didn't work. His save was was as effective as a paper doll's walking into a raging inferno to get cans of gasoline before they exploded. And the save wasn't just of himself, but his now-totally-exposed-as-a-stumbling-half-wit running mate Sarah Palin. The attempt to shift people's attention from her awfulness, even under highly controlled situations failed miserably. Her poll numbers are Grand Canyon-ing as we speak, aided (or rather, further ruined) by these disastrous, managed interviews. When a minimally talented interviewer like Katie Couric “pwns” you as badly as she did in this week's sit-down, you know you've got problems and a half. McCain's grandstanding was a “hail mary” to do something...anything to move eyes away from the trouble. The old magician's trick—“the misdirect”. From his recent choke job and his running mate's. What's almost lost in all of these reports about how terrible Palin's been is the mounting concern in GOP quarters over her in-over-her-head-ness. Republican strategist Rob Stutzman urged McCain to do the debate, but for all the wrong reasons:
“He needs the value of the side-by-side match-up, and now that there’s an apparent deal on the bailout, I think he’ll be in Oxford tomorrow night. The hullabaloo increases viewership 15 percent. Net win for McCain. Plus they need to do something to bury the Palin CBS interview!”
The original request was to postpone tonight's debate until next Thursday, where it would have replaced the Vice-Presidential one scheduled for that night—in effect, a double-stall, giving McCain more time to quaff serotonin and get his shit together, and to stave off Palin's potentially disastrous “Cindy Brady Camera Light” moment for another day. And the worry over her is real, with campaign insiders describing her debate prep as “disastrous”, “clueless” and wondering aloud “What are we going to do?”.
And loyal conservative pundits are so pissed, even they're taking shots at her idiocy.
SCARBOROUGH: If she can't answer basic questions, that's tough. Katie did not ask her tough questions, her questions were very fair. Apparently Katie asked her, “what's the worst thing Dick Cheney did”, and she answered “Shooting his friend with the gun”. Us Elections aren't a meritocracy, about picking the most qualified people, it's obvious she has very little knowledge of US facts. She may be a good person and a good governor, she has also has a high approval rating, but is this is the best person you can find for Vice President? but what does this say about Palin and McCain's judgment?
----------------------
MIKE MURPHY: (Former McCain Campaign Manager) Is my Mike on? Well you know Pat, I never agreed with the Palin pick in the first place. I said she's a good base pick, but this is not a base vote type of year. The McCain camp has problems, because it seems CBS has more footage, and it's not any better, then what we've already seen.
And worse still from GOP shill Kathleen Parker also today:
“It was fun while it lasted,” Parker writes. “Palin’s recent interviews with Charles Gibson, Sean Hannity, and now Katie Couric have all revealed an attractive, earnest, confident candidate. Who is clearly out of her league.”
To paraphrase the Beatles:
“Heeeee-eyyyyyyy, you've got to hide your Veep a-waaaa-aaaaaay!”
Thus, the panic move. Not just for himself, but his spiral-eyed running mate. And more than a little bit of naked, rank opportunism. John Sidney McCain tried to use the economic crisis—one that a man with seven homes and thirteen cars wouldn't feel if he was in one of the homes as his wife Cindy plowed the fourth Escalade through the living room while shrieking “There's an economic problem in this country, John!” as a shitty dodge for his flagging political fortunes.
He basically “jaked it”. That's a sports locker-room term for feigning an injury to either get out of playing a game or for cheap sympathy. People are losing their jobs and savings, while this dangerously flawed, machiavellian little martinet used their agony as cover for his bagging on a debate and campaign when the going got rough. A man that couldn't be bothered to go anywhere near the Senate for all manner of important legislation all Goddamned year—to the point he probably needed a GPS device and bloodounds to find his fucking office, all of a sudden is a half-assed Jimmy Stewart in “Mr. Smith Goes To Washington” the second his campaign starts collapsing on itself like a kid's over-sucked juice-box?
Cowardly. There's no other word that fits here. Not to mention, he monkey-wrenched a standing agreement with his know-nothing dance of egotism yesterday.
He tried to use the financial bail-out to facilitate his own cowardly bailing out and it failed. Miserably.
What tonight will bring...I don't know.
But I do know, and increasingly, the American people know that steady leadership and sage decison-making are not John McCain's strong suit, as evidenced by the last 48 hours of erratic behavior, capping off a manic-depressive ten days of ping-ponging about opinion-wise on matters of grave concern to us all.
Should we as Americans be in any way comfortable with the scattershot choices he makes? Absolutely not.
Should this man be anywhere close to the presidency? Hell, no.
