This weekend, the buzz in the progressive blogs and meet-ups is that Sarah has gone rogue. Tired of the handlers she's been assigned, feeling like she is the true star of the ticket- a Diva as it were-- and eager to not let the old Johnny Crash drag her down in a fiery explosion-- Sarah has decided to follow her own instincts and say what she thinks. All this is another way to say she is trying to preserve her chances at a political future and set up her run for 2012.
She seems to have just launched her campaign for the Iowa Primary.
In her remarks in Des Moines She added Ethanol to her list of alternative fuels- even though John McCain has been staunchly against Ethanol and outspoken about it.
Watch the clip here.
Hope she gets to keep some of that 150,000 dollar wardrobe now that the RNC has played back pedal and said that it was going to be donated to charity?! I have even seen a t-shirt design on cafepress for PALIN-RICE 2012. (The Humanity!)
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Iowa 2012, Here She Comes!
Friday, June 13, 2008
Losing Iowa
I realize that Tim Russert's death has hit the country like the sad senseless tragedy of Princess Diana's death or Clarabell. But maybe we can do something about the fact that we are losing more American cities to flooding.
Rain is expected through the weekend in Iowa, where floodwaters have deluged much of the state. The city of Cedar Rapids is hardest hit. More than 400 city blocks are under water and more than 3,000 homes have been evacuated.Maybe the National Guard and the Reserves can be called in... oh.. wait... There's more...
One hundred miles to the southwest, officials have issued a voluntary evacuation order for much of downtown Des Moines. The mayor of the state's capital and largest city calls the evacuations an attempt "to err on the side of citizens and residents."
Iowa's governor has declared 83 of the state's 99 counties to be state disaster areas. Nine rivers are at or above historic flood levels. Relief may come next week, when the weather in Iowa is predicted to be sunny and dry.
Flooding is also widespread in parts of Michigan and Wisconsin. --AP
Friday, January 4, 2008
Mr. 9-11
Rudy Giuliani. photo Senne/AP.
Iowa Result: Four % of the Republican Vote
“None of this worries me - Sept. 11, there were times I was worried.”
Yeah, I know. He didn't really campaign in Iowa. Tough.
Four freaking percent, when a month ago he was top of the world? It can all turn around that fast, if the momentum shifts. (Hear that, Hillary?)
Rudy's become a parody of himself.
He's an actual living, breathing, walking talking Saturday Night Live skit.
Good.
“We Are Going to Bring the Change that this Country Needs”
Edward's Victory Speech in Des Moines, Iowa
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Iowa Wrap Up
Total Voter Turnout (approximate)
Percentage of total vote
24.5% Obama
20.5% Edwards
19.8% Clinton
11.4% Huckabee (R)
There's more...
After Iowa: Who Will Win?
This is a political analysis.
These are not my personal preferences, so I don't want to hear jack shit from anyone saying Jesse is showing preference for or against one candidate over another. Fuck you if you say that. I have never said who I'm personally in favor of winning. Even my colleagues don't know. (I may have told Sara when we had breakfast last week. Maybe.) But this... this is what I think is likely to happen, not what I'm in favor of happening. Got it?
Let's review Iowa, starting with thanking Hubris Sonic for his great election night coverage. Well done!
Obama : 37.55%
Edwards : 29.81%
Clinton : 29.45%
Richardson : 2.10%
Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.13%
Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1763/1781
SDEs Reporting: 2474.51/2500
Even though Obama really kicked Hillary's ass in Iowa, I think Hillary is still likely to take the Nomination.
Here's why.
It's all about delegates -- 2,184 is the magic number -- and you win them state by state in a particular order.
Hillary is poised to win in New Hampshire this coming Tuesday, Jan 8, currently over 7% ahead in the polling, precisely the same margin Obama had going into Iowa, which is what Obama won by in Iowa.
After New Hampshire comes Michigan one week later on Jan 15. Obama and Edwards like absolute idiots sat out Michigan because Michigan jumped the DNC rules on when you can hold primaries, and ran to the front of the line. But the DNC's suspension of delegates won't hold up; Michigan's delegates will be allowed to vote in the Convention, so Hillary will get all of them, as Obama and Edwards didn't put their name in the hat. Again, idiots.
What counts as I said is wining delegates towards the magic 2,184 needed to win the nomination. Clinton has done this before. The other two have not. (Well, I guess you could say Edwards has. But he hasn't ever won.)
Then comes South Caroline and Florida (same deal in Florida as Michigan, which means Clinton gets more free delegates) and then, it's Super Tuesday on February 5. Hillary still holds a commanding national lead in the polls over everyone else. Go on... look at the polls. On a state by state basis, Hillary just smokes everyone. And that will be that, short of a real gaffe (and that simply isn't going to happen) or a brush-fire for someone else with only one month to go.
Assuming Hillary wins New Hampshire -- and I believe she will -- unless she gets blown up in a huge way somewhere else and the entire momentum of this race somehow shifts, she will walk away from Super Tuesday either with the nomination complete, or with a big enough lead to squeeze out the oxygen for everyone else.
This is not my saying I support Hillary. This is a cold-blooded political analysis of what I think most likely to happen.
The youth are clearly clamoring for Obama (including my daughter Kyle.) They think he is hot, sexy and way cool. (The press also love Obama. Absolutely can't get enough of him. Keep that in mind as you read the breathless coverage.) Leaving aside the issue of if the United States will elect a black man in the general election, I have my doubts if the youth will turn out enough to elect him in the primaries (although Kyle is working hard to get out the vote for Obama.)
Obama has the biggest chance to unseat Clinton. Given him the slightest chance and his campaign will explode into a national JFK phenomena. Look for the Clinton campaign surrogates to start playing brutal hardball with Obama now, casting doubts on everything from his experience, to his race, to his religion including bringing out lies and total bullshit. There are no points for second place, and with Clinton in third in Iowa, she's going to make damn certain Obama doesn't get any oxygen to catch on fire, as he is poised to do.
And then there is Edwards. Second tonight in Iowa, barely, the press are going to paint him -- watch and see -- as not having enough money to go on. The press hate Edwards perhaps even more than they hate Clinton, and that is truly saying something. He doesn't cozy up to them at all, and they doubt his authenticity. But there's no doubt among his supporters, and tonight he managed to pull out a second place win by a fraction. He's in this till at least Super Tuesday, and if he manages to get any oxygen at all, who knows what could happen.
On the Republican side, Huck... oh Huck, winning tonight is the best thing you could have possibly done for Romney. I was going to say, for McCain, but with McCain's 100 year war fuck-up today in New Hampshire, he is toast. Done for.
So Romney is now going to be the Republican candidate, you betcha. Huckabee is too fucking insane for even the Republicans, what with the dog killing son and the raping and the creation science. They can't let this insane guy take center stage; they'd lose by a solid 65/35, and the Senate would become filibuster proof. So watch for the money to flow to Romney.
From the GNB Political Desk, it's Jesse Wendel with post-Iowa analysis.
Iowa Update: Stardate 314990.4
Obama : 37.12%
Edwards : 30.02%
Clinton : 29.62%
Surprising (for me) win by Obama. Hillary in effect got her ass kicked. How much money did she spend in Iowa? Tons. There will be a push back by the GOP establishment to try and end the Huckabee ride. I would have thought McCain to be the person they push, but after his silly assed statement about staying in Iraq for 100 years he is toast I suspect. Romney?
Nice Job Obama, and John Edwards for hanging on to a 2nd place finish.
Iowa Update 57.3 ( The Kids are Alright )
60% first time caucus goers. HUGE amount of young people. Hence the Obama win.
Large number of independents went for Obama. NH has a even greater number of independents.
Obama : 36.94%
Edwards : 30.09%
Clinton : 29.79%
Richardson : 2.13%
Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.10%
Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1588/1781
Iowa Update XXX Part Deux
Obama : 36.78%
Edwards : 30.16%
Clinton : 29.92%
Richardson : 2.08%
Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.10%
Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1546/1781
86% Reporting
Iowa Update XXXX!
Obama : 36.68%
Edwards : 30.24%
Clinton : 29.99%
Richardson : 2.01%
Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.11%
Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1487/1781
SDEs Reporting: 1990.15/2500
Iowa Update XXX
Edwards / Clinton Death Match
Obama : 36.37%
Edwards : 30.47%
Clinton : 30.15%
Richardson : 1.96%
Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.09%
Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1448/1781
Iowa Update, Obama, Obama, Obama
Networks calling it for Obama.
Obama : 36.11%
Edwards : 30.57%
Clinton : 30.34%
Richardson : 1.89%
Biden : 0.96%
Uncommitted : 0.10%
Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1401/1781
Iowa Update XIV
Huckabee is a truly terrible candidate. A pathological liar and generally stupid man. Expect to see McCain be promoted by folks in NH.
Obama : 35.25%
Edwards : 31.02%
Clinton : 30.78%
Richardson : 1.80%
Biden : 1.01%
Uncommitted : 0.11%
Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1304/1781
Edwards holding on at #2
Iowa Update XII ( 70% reporting )
Obama : 35.06%
Edwards : 31.19%
Clinton : 30.87%
Richardson : 1.78%
Biden : 0.97%
Uncommitted : 0.11%
Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1262/1781
Obama pulling away...
Iowa Update X ( 65% reporting)
Obama : 34.95%
Edwards : 31.24%
Clinton : 31.02%
Richardson : 1.68%
Biden : 0.97%
Uncommitted : 0.10%
Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1173/1781
Can Edwards hold the line?
Iowa Update IX
The smaller ppg's (presidential preference groups) should start throwing their votes to others soon... I had heard a rumor of Richardson going to Obama, but nothing yet.
Obama : 34.62%
Edwards : 31.48%
Clinton : 31.13%
Richardson : 1.64%
Biden : 1.03%
Uncommitted : 0.07%
Dodd : 0.04%
Precincts Reporting: 1078/1781
Obama is Winning Iowa at 50% Reported
Edwards is barely ahead of Hillary, and she's closing fast.
For a while there, it looked to me as if Edwards had a shot at taking this. But it isn't going to happen.
Unless a breakthrough happens somehow... Obama keeps edging up a little bit with every update. He's over 2.5% up almost 3% ahead with 50% reporting and that gap is unlikely to close.
And Edwards and Hillary get closer and closer with every update.
As HS has already reported, the networks have called Iowa for Huckabee.
Iowa Update VIII ( 1,000 Precincts )
Obama : 34.52%
Edwards : 31.61%
Clinton : 31.13%
Richardson : 1.69%
Biden : 0.98%
Dodd : 0.04%
Uncommitted : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1000/1781
