Asymmetrical Warfare

538.com has been posting up some good stuff on the state of the health care debate, the tactics being used, and how these tactics are being reflected in the polls. Today this caught my eye...

allow me to suggest that what we are also witnessing here is an asymmetrical battle in which conservatives, Republicans, trade associations and other assorted opponents are adapting campaign strategies--and smear tactics in particular--to a policy debate. And, if you think about it, it's a pretty shrewd strategy to muddy the waters, provide disinformation, and in general try to scare people away from an idea--just as one might try to deter them from voting for a candidate in an election campaign. (read the rest)

We should have seen this coming, and been ready sooner. The GOP knows only one strategy that they have perfected in the last 10 years, deceit and misinformation- waged always like a political campaign. This approach to the very real and urgent need for policy and legislation is so cynical and uncaring as to stagger me. But there it is. We should expect it. All the time. Prepare for it. And push back hard.

They are the party of lies and of saying no to the American people and yes to big corporations and their rich friends. We are still being swiftboated at every turn. Time to sink some boats.

crossposted from FL

There's more...

Election Predictions Open Thread

Voting on Saipan in 1974. photo TTPI archives.

Fifteen Days, Five Predictions

President: Obama wins with 370 electoral votes (100 more than needed)

Senate: 60 Democrats -- includes Lieberman (I-CT) and Sanders (I-VT)

Senate: 50% chance of 61 Democrats (wins in Mississippi and Georgia -- we WILL win at least one -- and possibly Kentucky to give us 62, which would let us dump Lieberman)

Minnesota Senate: Franken wins over incumbent Coleman (R-MN)

Washington House 8th District: Burner wins over incumbent Richert (R-WA08)

These are my election predictions.

Roughly once a generation -- in 1984 with Reagan, in 1964 with LBJ, in 1936 with FDR, there is a massive shift in direction.

The change which is happening with Obama is not just the shift which happens once every generation, but the shift which happens once a lifetime. The last time such a massive shift happened was with FDR. This shift which is happening with Obama will set the direction for the next 70-80 years.

The polls have made clear who will win the election.

• Hominid Views
• Electoral-Vote.com

All that is left is watching the Senate and House races change over to Democratic BLUE as the country continues to shift further and further into a landslide.

Get on the phone.

Call your friends.

Do everything you can these next two weeks to bring this sucker home.

Open Thread for your election predictions.

There's more...

Vice Presidential Debate: CBS Poll of Undecideds

Biden Wins Debate #1 With Undecided, says CBS News

Polling of 473 uncommitted voters gives a clear victory to Biden.

"NINETY-EIGHT PERCENT of uncommitted voters think Biden is knowledgable, NINETY-SEVEN PERCENT see him as prepared, NINETY-ONE PERCENT see him prepared for the job."
--CBS News Poll

CBS News

Forty-six percent of the uncommitted voters surveyed say Democrat Joe Biden won the debate, compared to 21 percent for Republican Sarah Palin. Thirty-three percent said it was a tie.

Both candidates improved their overall image tonight. Fifty-three percent of those surveyed say they now have a better impression of Biden. Five percent say they have a worse opinion of the Delaware senator, while 42 percent say they debate did not change their opinion.

Fifty-five percent say they now have a better opinion of Palin. Fourteen percent say they have a worse opinion, while 30 percent say their opinion hasn't changed.

After the debate, 66 percent see Palin as knowledgeable about important issues – up from 43 percent before the debate. But Biden still has the advantage on this – 98 percent saw him as knowledgeable after the debate. That figure was 79 percent before the debate.

Uncommitted voters’ views of Palin’s preparedness for the job of vice president also improved as a result of her debate performance - but they are still nowhere near the percentage that thinks Biden is prepared.

Fifty-five percent say Palin is prepared for the job, up from 39 percent before the debate. Ninty-seven percent say Biden is prepared, up from 81 percent pre-debate.

Although Palin made some gains on the question of whether she could serve as president if needed, she rose just 9 points on that measure. Now 44 percent say the Alaska governor could be an effective president. Ninety-one percent said Biden could be effective as president, up from 66 percent before the debate.

Biden is winning.

PLEASE go look at these polls:

• Hominid Views University of Washington Statistics Professor. I know and respect him. Good guy. I like his numbers.
• Electoral-Vote.com Well known, well respected, been around for a while.

The debates have MASSIVELY moved the undecided voters towards Obama.

Nationally, Obama is ahead of McCain 49% to 40%.

As we keep telling you however, it is electoral math which truly counts. A ten percent national lead translates to roughly a 100% electoral lead. Of course, one has to subtract slightly for Obama being black -- some people will claim to vote for him in polls, but probably not in the actual voting booths (the Bradley effect) -- and we also need to translate for outright theft, stealing votes electronically (about which I'll do an entire post probably Monday.)

Just remember, a 10% lead in the national poll, before adjustments, translates to roughly a 100 point electoral lead.

National state-by-state polling data at BOTH sites which I trust, shows current electoral maps in the 330s for Obama.

Let me give you that again:

Right now as I write this:

• Obama v. McCain: 349-189 - Hominid Views
• Obama v. McCain: 338-185 - Electoral Vote

At the last debate Obama had roughly 278-284 electoral votes in the polls at these two sites (HV normally polls Obama slightly higher, as they don't adjust for likely voters as EV does. This is inside baseball talk, and you can ignore it unless you actually give a damn, in which case you are better served reading the methodology pieces they write at the respective sites.) The point is...

Obama is UP 60-65 electoral votes in one week!

Why? From one debate, a MASSIVE BREAKDOWN with the bailout and McCain's association with the economic breakdown and Bush etc, and Palin's crappy performances in an interview.

One week... We now have Florida, Ohio (without which NO Republican can possibly win or [I believe] has ever won), Virginia is solidly Blue, and other states I never thought I'd see Blue in my life are starting to get there.

GO LOOK AT THE MAPS on the polling sites.

Then go MAKE MORE PHONE CALLS.

This is not nearly over. There are Governor's races that are hanging fire (like in Washington State.) Congressman and Congresswomen. And Senators.

WORK, WORK, WORK YOUR ASS OFF. Don't just hang around the blog.

We love you, but GET TO WORK.

Watch how these numbers shift over the next three days. It will take three full days for the numbers to reflect Thursday's debate. The numbers I just put how don't reflect the debate at all.

Remember -- it's ELECTORAL VOTE that matters. One vote is all it takes (except in two states) to win that state. National polls don't mean anything, not really. This is 50 state races for President.

Use this post as an OPEN THREAD for electoral politics. Also talk Senate and Congressional races.

Remember that in the last debate snap poll, Obama also won by similar numbers.

I predict a 100 point+ electoral college win by Obama. (In my dreams, I think Obama might do as well as Reagan did in his first election -- 489 - 49 electoral votes. Now THAT is never going to happen (Reagan took all but six states and DC) but I think we could do 400 EV, and all but maybe 15 states if we keep pushing. It's a dream, okay? My dream is 400.)

OPEN THREAD on predictions for the election. Try not to make WAGS; ground your opinion in something please.

I point to 8 years of Bushism, Palin, repeated hail Mary passes by the McCain campaign, lies lies lies to the point even the mass media is calling him out, Pain again, the economy and McCain taking some of the blame for that, the price of oil, Iraq in the background of everything, and Obama passing the test of being Presidential in Debate #1. This is why I predict a 100+ point electoral college win.

Put it all together and what have you got?

Barack Obama is the next President of the United States.

Rock & Roll baby. Rock and fracking Roll.

There's more...

Don't it Turn My Red States Blue...

I am humming this little ditty today (while knocking on wood etc. etc.). Seems that new polling in the red states shows the country coming together behind Obama, and even better, around democratic candidates in senate and congressional races as well. And all this is happening even in some so-called safe red districts.

Howie Klein has it all at DownWithTyranny.

This morning when asked why Obama is gaining momentum everywhere in the country while his own polling numbers are tumbling, McCain sputtered and groused to his buddies at Fox that "life is unfair." With support from voters solidifying around Obama's calm, measured approach-- and rejecting the McCain campaign's erratic and hysterical reactions to everything-- the battlegrounds for November have been shifting into "safe" Republican states like North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia and Florida. In fact, Florida Republicans are panicking. So are congressional candidates tied to McCain.

Read the wonderful details here

Here's another highlight;

Earlier today Congressional Quarterly changed its rating on two Michigan races from "leans Republican" to toss-up. Blue America candidates Gary Peters and Mark Schauer are now seen as winners against Republican right-wingers Joe Knollenberg and Tim Walberg. The fact that McCain has read the writing on the wall and decided to pull his faltering campaign out of Michigan entirely probably dooms the both of them.

Change up brown to red... and you've got the new GOP theme song.

Cross posted from Fighting Liberals

There's more...

Palin Down 11% With Women Voters

Not surprisingly, as people get to know her, Palin's numbers are trending down, down, down.

Some key numbers from CBS;

While Palin remains popular among McCain voters, the poll suggests that the McCain campaign may have cause for concern. More than half of registered voters do not think Palin is prepared for the job of Vice President, and even McCain supporters cite “inexperience” as what they like least about her.

Just 17 percent of registered voters say McCain chose Palin because she is well qualified for the job of Vice President. Seventy-five percent say McCain made the choice to help win the election. (Even voters backing the Republican ticket share this view: 53 percent say the Palin choice was to help McCain win in November.)

and

Palin’s favorable rating stands at 40 percent, down 4 points from last week. Her unfavorable rating, which stands at 30 percent, has risen eight points in the same time period. Her favorable rating among women has fallen 11 points in the past week.

Thank the flying spaghetti monster, cause I gotta tell you-- I was seriously wondering just how stupid Americans had become in the last 8 years! But it seems as if the brief Palin love fest has come to an abrupt end. Which is not to say that this race isn't still too close to call.

Speaking of calling, phone banking tonight yielded 123 calls. and at least 10 of my voters mentioned Palin as the #1 reason they were so motivated to vote.

There's more...