Obama Ad: “Can't Explain”

Hard-hitting Health Care Ad Released by Obama Campaign
or
Duct-Taping the Economy to Bush/McCain and the Republicans

On Friday, the Obama Campaign released a health care spot using footage from the Vice Presidential debate, less than 24 hours previously.

This says to me the Obama camp believes the voters they are most trying to reach -- independents in the middle class in the middle of the country as they finish nailing down Ohio, Hispanics in Texas, folks in New Hampshire, and people in Florida and the south as the campaign really starts to move strongly into the south, states which the Democratic party hasn't made serious attempts on since Bill Clinton was President...

This spot says to me that the Obama campaign believes the ECONOMY is the core issue for all Americans, and HEALTH CARE is THE issue which most clearly expresses people's fears about the economy.

The spot DUCT-TAPES those fears to Bush/McCain and the Republicans.

Well done.

h/t MyDD.

There's more...

Vice Presidential Debate: CBS Poll of Undecideds

Biden Wins Debate #1 With Undecided, says CBS News

Polling of 473 uncommitted voters gives a clear victory to Biden.

"NINETY-EIGHT PERCENT of uncommitted voters think Biden is knowledgable, NINETY-SEVEN PERCENT see him as prepared, NINETY-ONE PERCENT see him prepared for the job."
--CBS News Poll

CBS News

Forty-six percent of the uncommitted voters surveyed say Democrat Joe Biden won the debate, compared to 21 percent for Republican Sarah Palin. Thirty-three percent said it was a tie.

Both candidates improved their overall image tonight. Fifty-three percent of those surveyed say they now have a better impression of Biden. Five percent say they have a worse opinion of the Delaware senator, while 42 percent say they debate did not change their opinion.

Fifty-five percent say they now have a better opinion of Palin. Fourteen percent say they have a worse opinion, while 30 percent say their opinion hasn't changed.

After the debate, 66 percent see Palin as knowledgeable about important issues – up from 43 percent before the debate. But Biden still has the advantage on this – 98 percent saw him as knowledgeable after the debate. That figure was 79 percent before the debate.

Uncommitted voters’ views of Palin’s preparedness for the job of vice president also improved as a result of her debate performance - but they are still nowhere near the percentage that thinks Biden is prepared.

Fifty-five percent say Palin is prepared for the job, up from 39 percent before the debate. Ninty-seven percent say Biden is prepared, up from 81 percent pre-debate.

Although Palin made some gains on the question of whether she could serve as president if needed, she rose just 9 points on that measure. Now 44 percent say the Alaska governor could be an effective president. Ninety-one percent said Biden could be effective as president, up from 66 percent before the debate.

Biden is winning.

PLEASE go look at these polls:

• Hominid Views University of Washington Statistics Professor. I know and respect him. Good guy. I like his numbers.
• Electoral-Vote.com Well known, well respected, been around for a while.

The debates have MASSIVELY moved the undecided voters towards Obama.

Nationally, Obama is ahead of McCain 49% to 40%.

As we keep telling you however, it is electoral math which truly counts. A ten percent national lead translates to roughly a 100% electoral lead. Of course, one has to subtract slightly for Obama being black -- some people will claim to vote for him in polls, but probably not in the actual voting booths (the Bradley effect) -- and we also need to translate for outright theft, stealing votes electronically (about which I'll do an entire post probably Monday.)

Just remember, a 10% lead in the national poll, before adjustments, translates to roughly a 100 point electoral lead.

National state-by-state polling data at BOTH sites which I trust, shows current electoral maps in the 330s for Obama.

Let me give you that again:

Right now as I write this:

• Obama v. McCain: 349-189 - Hominid Views
• Obama v. McCain: 338-185 - Electoral Vote

At the last debate Obama had roughly 278-284 electoral votes in the polls at these two sites (HV normally polls Obama slightly higher, as they don't adjust for likely voters as EV does. This is inside baseball talk, and you can ignore it unless you actually give a damn, in which case you are better served reading the methodology pieces they write at the respective sites.) The point is...

Obama is UP 60-65 electoral votes in one week!

Why? From one debate, a MASSIVE BREAKDOWN with the bailout and McCain's association with the economic breakdown and Bush etc, and Palin's crappy performances in an interview.

One week... We now have Florida, Ohio (without which NO Republican can possibly win or [I believe] has ever won), Virginia is solidly Blue, and other states I never thought I'd see Blue in my life are starting to get there.

GO LOOK AT THE MAPS on the polling sites.

Then go MAKE MORE PHONE CALLS.

This is not nearly over. There are Governor's races that are hanging fire (like in Washington State.) Congressman and Congresswomen. And Senators.

WORK, WORK, WORK YOUR ASS OFF. Don't just hang around the blog.

We love you, but GET TO WORK.

Watch how these numbers shift over the next three days. It will take three full days for the numbers to reflect Thursday's debate. The numbers I just put how don't reflect the debate at all.

Remember -- it's ELECTORAL VOTE that matters. One vote is all it takes (except in two states) to win that state. National polls don't mean anything, not really. This is 50 state races for President.

Use this post as an OPEN THREAD for electoral politics. Also talk Senate and Congressional races.

Remember that in the last debate snap poll, Obama also won by similar numbers.

I predict a 100 point+ electoral college win by Obama. (In my dreams, I think Obama might do as well as Reagan did in his first election -- 489 - 49 electoral votes. Now THAT is never going to happen (Reagan took all but six states and DC) but I think we could do 400 EV, and all but maybe 15 states if we keep pushing. It's a dream, okay? My dream is 400.)

OPEN THREAD on predictions for the election. Try not to make WAGS; ground your opinion in something please.

I point to 8 years of Bushism, Palin, repeated hail Mary passes by the McCain campaign, lies lies lies to the point even the mass media is calling him out, Pain again, the economy and McCain taking some of the blame for that, the price of oil, Iraq in the background of everything, and Obama passing the test of being Presidential in Debate #1. This is why I predict a 100+ point electoral college win.

Put it all together and what have you got?

Barack Obama is the next President of the United States.

Rock & Roll baby. Rock and fracking Roll.

There's more...

Vice Presidential Debate: Open Thread/Live Blogging

Open Thread/Live Blogging.

Looking forward to your comments below.

And here we go...


We're playing Palin Bingo.

You can make it the Palin drinking game. Take a drink if Palin says any of the following:

Evil
Faith
Tax Relief
Pit Bull
Main Street

Foreign Oil
Gotcha Journalism
Job Creation
Special Needs
Phone it In

Pro Life
Spending
FREE SPACE
President Karzai
Reformer

Maverick
Obama
National Guard
Bailout
Heartland

9-11
Interview
Drill
Executive
Wasilla

Palin: Blames everything on evil, predator lenders. Hockey Moms and Joe 6-Pack know better. Let's do what our parents told us -- don't live outside our means. We have an opportunity to learn a lot of good lessons through this and never again be taken advantage of.

Biden: Two years ago Barack Obama warned about the sub-prime lending crisis. The Republicans including Senator John McCain called for DEREGULATION. Over 20 times in the last two years, John McCain has called for more deregulation of the financial markets. In fact, recently John McCain called for more deregulation on health care.

Palin: Obama is against tax relief. 94 times Obama voted for higher taxes. That is what Obama is for, increasing taxes, as late as last year, on people making as little as $42K.

Biden: The charge is absolutely not true. John McCain voted the same way. It was a budget procdeural vote. But you notice Palin did not answer the question about deregulation.

Ifill: Would you like a chance to answer the question?

Palin: I'm still on the tax thing, and that's what I'm going to bring to the American people.

Ifill: We're going to move on.

Ifill: Taxes?

Biden: Under our plan, people would pay no more than under Ronald Regean.

Palin: It isn't patriotic to ....(couldn't quite tell.. either) [pay your taxes] (or) [pay more taxes.]

Biden: We don't call giving a huge tax cut from Exxon-Mobile to the middle class a tax hike, we call it a redistribution. How John McCain's health plan works is 12 million of you are going to be dropped from his health plan, and the rest will have to pay $5,000 each to the insurance companies. That is what I call the ultimate bridge to nowhere.

Palin: The nice thing about running with John McCain is, he doesn't tell one thing to one group and then another thing to a different group. Obama voted for a $100 million tax break for the oil companies. I had to fight it in Alaska.

Iffil: So there's nothing you'd take off the table?

Palin: No. But the bailout plan needs massive oversight.

Biden: We're trying to give a windfall profits tax. I give the govenor credit for that in her state. But John McCain refuses to do that. He's trying to give away another $4 Billion dollars to the oil companies. Barack Obama wants to take that money and give that money back to you. So I hope Palin can convince McCain, because he's been against it and is trying to give the money to the oil companies.

PALIN KEEPS REFUSING TO ANSWER ANY, ANY, ANY QUESTIONS. So far, she hasn't answered more than one question. Grrrrr.

Biden: In the bailout, we need to adjust the bankruptcy laws so that not just the interest is handled, but also the principle can be adjusted.

Palin: I want to talk more about energy... (editor: *sighs*)

Iffil: Climate Change?

Palin: I don't necessarily believe Climate Change is man made, but I don't want to argue about it. I want to reduce emissions, and work to decrease U.S. emissions over other countries who don't take this as seriously as other countries.

Biden: If you don't understand the cause of something, you can't fix it. Climate change is caused by man. It is that simple.

Palin: The chant is "Drill Baby Drill." We need to drill from U.S. sources, support nuclear power, clean coal.

Iffil: Gay rights?

Palin: I have diverse friends, and neither McCain or I would ever so anything to get in the way of visitation rights. I am against Gay Marriage -- marriage should be between a man and a woman.

Biden: Gay rights should be the same as any rights between anyone. Period. Exception: Neither Obama or I support gay marriage.

Iffil: Do you agree with Sen. Biden?

Palin: I agree with Sen. Biden in what he said about not supporting gay marriage.

Iffil: Good. Then you agree.

(Ed. Note. Nothing in what Palin said was an agreement between the two.)

Palin: Obama voted against the war, voted against the troops.

Biden: What you said was untrue. We will end this war.

Palin: Your plan is a white flag of surrender. You said you supporting a lot of these positions until you ran with Obama on the ticket; I don't know how you can support them now.

Biden: John McCain voted against funding the troops because it had and I quote, "a timeline" in it, and he didn't like it. John McCain has been dead wrong on the fundamental issues relating to the war. Those are the facts.

Iffil: Who is more dangerous, Iran or Pakistan?

Biden: My big problem is McCain's position is that the problem is Iraq. If an attack comes it will come from a school in the foothills. We need to be in there engaging with these people ourselves, rather than just fighting them.

Palin: We have a passion for diplomacy. Except we shouldn't sit down with them.

Biden: It amazes me that Sen. McCain does not realize you can not work with people without meeting with them. Or that _____ has no power in Iran, that the Clerics control the security apparatus. Even George Bush after five years sent a high ranking State Department official to sit down with someone from Iran in Europe. Finally, Sen. McCain said two weeks ago, that he wouldn't even meet with the Prime Minister of SPAIN, a NATO ally, who has troops in Afghanistan. How can this be?

(Ed. note: Palin is now being CUTE again. Calling McCain a Maverick. Cute, cute, cute.)

(Ed note: This is painful. She's totally outclassed. When she doesn't know what to do, she falls back on cute and stories. She knows some facts, but is massively over her head. And she makes up lies.)

Biden: The general in Afghanistan today said the surge principle would NOT work. Second, nuclear weapons require a nuclear arms package and control strategy. John McCain has consistently voted against such packages.

Palin: A surge would work.

Biden: Um, the general in charge there said it would not.

Biden: We have the power now to put a no-fly over Darfur.

Palin: I agree with the no-fly being on the table.

Biden: When genocide is happening, then it is time to act. As Barack Obama made clear in his position on Iraq, he was against this from the very start, unlike what Sen. McCain or Dick Cheney were for.

Palin: You can say what you want to say, but tomorrow when the pundits talk, we'll see. John McCain has been to war. He knows how to win a war. He knows what evil is.

Ifill: If you should ever have to become President?

Biden: That would be a national tragedy of historic proportions. I'd continue Obama's policies.

Palin: I disagree with the Senator on ANWAR, and I appreciate that Sen. McCain allows me a spirited debate.

Biden: Come down to Home Depot with me, then ask anyone if there is a single major initiative if anyone there in the middle class and ask if anything from the Bush Administration has done anything for them. That's what the McCain administration is, the same thing.

Palin: Oh Joe, there you go again, not looking forward. We need to look at education and see what is possible and put more attention there.

Ifill: Vice President have extra powers?

Palin: Flexible, do what the constitution says. Executive experience.

Biden: Vice President Cheney has been the most dangerous Vice President in the history of the United States. (Ed note: and about two paras of SLAMMING Cheney, with specifics. Snap.)

Palin: Shining City on a Hill, as Reagan says. (Ed note: It's John Winthrop. Duh.)

Biden: I understand being a single parent. I know what it like to wrestle with the need for real change. Barack Obama will bring change.

Palin: Maverick. Maverick. No more partisinship. Change is coming and John McCain is bringing it.

Biden: John McCain is not a mavrick on the issues that matter to people's lives. Not on education, not on the war, not on virtually anything that people talk about around the kitchen table. He voted even against heat for people in their homes. So maverick he is not on issues which matter around the kitchen table.

Ifill: Changes you made since you were elected?

Biden: Changed who I was in terms of what I think about judges. Now I'm committed to judicial thinking. Example: Judge Bork.

Palin: No. Always seem to find a way to work together, not caring who gets the credit for what.

Closing Statements

Palin: Nice to talk without the filter of the media. We're going to fight for the middle-class person. I've been there. We're blessed to live in America. We have to fight for our freedoms, economic and national security.

Biden: Most important election in your entire life. Last eight years have been bad. There's a need for change. We measure progress based on if you can pay your mortgage or send your kid to college, or if our military can fight with the best equipment, or get good education when they come home. We believe in the negighorhoods we grew up in, we could accomplish anything. We intend to reestablish that for all of us. May God bless all of us, and may God protect our troops.

Iffil: Next debate next Tuesday


Okay, comments.

She didn't do as bad as I thought.

Biden CLEARLY won.

No major gaffes on Palin's part. She and the McCain campaign will be breathing a huge sigh of relief.

On the other hand, Biden HAMMERED his points home, clearly overpowering her on places where she was lying. And she was lying, simply not telling the truth in several places.

The problem is, to the casual viewer, that won't be clear. And Palin will look like she did okay.

She kept pulling the conversation back to the conversational, steering clear of the facts, moving to anticdotal, which is her strength. Frankly, she exceeded expectations so far as the debate went. Yet in terms of independents, I'll say independents probably moved towards Obama/Biden by 2/1.

Why? Because it was clear to anyone watching, that Palin was still faking at a certain level, and Biden truly knows his stuff.

Anyway, LIVE from Seattle, this is Jesse. Thanks for being here. Good night.

See you Tuesday night for the Presidental Debate.

There's more...

Palin Debate Biden Rock & Roll Open Thread

Everyone's busy today.

Are you busy, and if so, with what?

How do you figure Gov. Palin is being prepped for the debate?

How are you preparing for the debate?

What is Gov. Palin's playlist?

Yours?

What is Sen. Biden's playlist?

What should Sen. Biden watch out for during the debate?

What are the rules for the Palin Debate drinking game?

Anything else you want to tell us. OPEN THREAD.

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