mcjoan: “What Is Next?”

Joan McCarter at Darcy Burner Election Night Event

Here's a quick interview with mcjoan last night at the Darcy event.

Joan's been working damn near around the clock the last seven-eight weeks. I think this event was pretty much her first break in weeks.

This is the same event during which Darcy thanked the Netroots for their work.

I asked Joan what she thought what next...



You can read Joan at DailyKos. Highly recommended.

There's more...

Joy as Election Called for Obama

One-hundred forty-five years ago a President said:

Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.

Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation, so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met on a great battle-field of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field, as a final resting place for those who here gave their lives that that nation might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this.

But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate—we can not consecrate—we can not hallow—this ground. The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us—that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion—that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain—that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom—and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.

Forty-five years ago a Preacher said:

And if America is to be a great nation, this must become true.

And so let freedom ring from the prodigious hilltops of New Hampshire.

Let freedom ring from the mighty mountains of New York.

Let freedom ring from the heightening Alleghenies of Pennsylvania.

Let freedom ring from the snow-capped Rockies of Colorado.

Let freedom ring from the curvaceous slopes of California.

But not only that:

Let freedom ring from Stone Mountain of Georgia.

Let freedom ring from Lookout Mountain of Tennessee.

Let freedom ring from every hill and molehill of Mississippi.

From every mountainside, let freedom ring.

And when this happens, when we allow freedom ring, when we let it ring from every village and every hamlet, from every state and every city, we will be able to speed up that day when all of God's children, black men and white men, Jews and Gentiles, Protestants and Catholics, will be able to join hands and sing in the words of the old Negro spiritual:

Free at last! Free at last!

Thank God Almighty, we are free at last!

All across the United States, all across the world, people wept, people rejoiced, and people celebrated -- as in a giant wave of change, a promise for the the future, a hope for a better tomorrow and a world of people united in a common understanding of our mutual inter-relatedness -- the election was called for Barack Obama as President Elect of the United States of America.

Rejoice.

Joy cometh in the morning.

There's more...

The Only Way McCain Wins (and how to stop him)

The Current Polls & Predictions
With one week to go, here's an overview of my various sources and what they say about the upcoming election. Everything points to a significant Obama victory next week, unless something very odd or untoward happens.

Pollster.com EV map:

Image Source: Pollster.com, 2008.10.27

Pollster.com basically takes all the poll data from all the polls and displays it as an EV map. Yellow states are "tossups", while lightly colored (blue and red) states "lean" to their respective parties. The critical piece of information here is the number in the upper right next to the dark blue legend square: 268. Current polling shows Obama has "strong" polling numbers representing 268 EVs, leaving him only two short of election to pick up over the the "lean democratic" and "tossup" states, while McCain must run the table of all "lean republican", "tossup", AND "lean democratic" states to win.

Electoral-vote.com map:

Image Source: Electoral-Vote.com, 2008.10.27

Electoral-vote.com shows us basically the same data in a slightly different form. Pure white states (MT and ND) are "tied". Light blue and red states (CO, VA, OH, SD, WV) are "weak" for their respective parties while light blue and red outlined states (FL, NV, NC, AZ, GA) are "barely" for their respective parties. You'll notice that the outlined and white states are the "tossup" states in the pollster.com map. Behind the scenes these sites use very similar data, and the conclusion is almost the same. Electoral-vote.com says Obama has 260 EVs locked up in "strong" states, with another 57 "weak" and 58 "barely" to McCain's 134 "strong", 8 "weak" and 15 "barely", with 6 EVs "tied" in MT and ND. Again, Obama needs to pick up very few EVs (10) from the entire range of "weak democratic", "barely democratic", "tied", "barely republican" and "weak republican" in order to win.

Five-thirty-eight.com EV map:

Image Source: FiveThirtyEight.com, 2008.10.27

Five thirty eight.com is not just reporting aggregated polling data. The FAQ explains how they are different:

Firstly, we assign each poll a weighting based on that pollster's historical track record, the poll's sample size, and the recentness of the poll. More reliable polls are weighted more heavily in our averages.

Secondly, we include a regression estimate based on the demographics in each state among our 'polls', which helps to account for outlier polls and to keep the polling in its proper context.

Thirdly, we use an inferential process to compute a rolling trendline that allows us to adjust results in states that have not been polled recently and make them ‘current’.

Fourthly, we simulate the election 10,000 times for each site update in order to provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes based on a historical analysis of polling data since 1952. The simulation further accounts for the fact that similar states are likely to move together, e.g. future polling movement in states like Michigan and Ohio, or North and South Carolina, is likely to be in the same direction.

Five thirty eight.com uses statistical techniques in an attempt to determine which polls are more valid than others, and to extract trend information. Using the processed data, they run Monte Carlo simulations to "predict" the outcome of 10000 simulated elections. The aggregated information from those simulation runs provides them with a "most likely" result, a probability of Democratic or Republican victory, and an estimate of the popular vote. As of 27 October, the most likely result is 351 EV for Obama and 187 EV for McCain, a 96.7% chance that Obama will win, and a popular vote split of 52.4% for Obama to 46% for McCain.

Electoral-vote.com, all EV polling:

Image Source: Electoral-Vote.com, 2008.10.27

Electoral-vote.com also shows us two graphs. This lead graph provides the total EV count polling to each party. Obama has polled above 270 EVs very consistently since he clinched the nomination.

Electoral-vote.com, EVs polling more than 5% only:

Image Source: Electoral-Vote.com, 2008.10.27

This second graph shows only those EVs which poll a 5% or greater difference. Even with that, Obama is above the 270 needed to win the presidency.

Pollster.com gives us a national trend graph showing all their polls as individual dots with a line showing a smoothed average trend. I've included three versions to show just how tricky this kind of analysis can be. The sensitivity of the smoothing indicates how quickly the trendline responds to changes. More sensitive means more quickly. However, more sensitive also means more vulnerable to noise in the data.

Pollster.com More Sensitive Smoothing

Image Source: Pollster.com, 2008.10.27

Pollster.com Medium Smoothing

Image Source: Pollster.com, 2008.10.27

Pollster.com Less Sensitive Smoothing

Image Source: Pollster.com, 2008.10.27

Notice how the trendlines are more jagged in the "more sensitive" graph and how they smooth out as the sensitivity goes down. The "medium" and "less sensitive" graphs show us a pretty consistent picture of Obama running about 50% and McCain somewhere in the 42-43% range. The "more sensitive" graph suggests a hint that Obama's support is weakening and that we might be seeing a significant narrowing (perhaps as much as 3%) of the national gap.

That's not very likely, especially not this close to the election. The gap changes we see now are most likely to be undecideds (although how you can be undecided 19 1/2 months into a 20 month campaign is a little beyond me) making up their minds at the last minute, NOT people suddenly deciding that the candidate they're with has become unacceptable to them. If the change continues over the next couple of days, it may represent an actual shift, but I wouldn't call it a real trend until Thursday and then only if it starts to show up in the less sensitive trend analysis. If I had the actual numbers to play with I might be able to call it sooner, but I don't.

With all the polling and trending suggesting bad national news for McCain, how does he win the election? Watch the video for the answer.

Source Video: Heroes, Season One, Episode "Landslide"
Video Production: Evan Robinson, Group News Blog

Obviously I'm not suggesting that John McCain can win the election by finding an 8-year old African-American child with the power to "talk" to computers. But I am suggesting that the most believable way McCain wins the presidency in 2008 is through election fraud.

Voting Fraud
According to the Brad Blog, we are already seeing "vote flipping" happening during early voting in West Virginia and Texas. Candidate names disappeared from the final review screen in South Carolina. We've even seen at least one case of vote flipping from R to D in Tennessee (although that report appears to be exaggerated -- at least)!

Ultimately, computer voting using machines created by private companies expose our democracy to unacceptable risks. Companies making electronic voting machines have committed to deliver votes for one side. Unvetted software has been installed to run elections. Computers count votes in secret and many make meaningful re-counts impossible.

Vote Suppression
Every election cycle, Republicans launch massive efforts at suppressing voter turnout. They do so by a variety of methods, including not mailing out ballots, circulating flyers with false information about election dates or locations or requirements, purging voter rolls, issuing spurious challenges to voters on election day, even threatening voters with deportation or arrest.

It has been part of the conservative (aka Republican) canon since at least 1980 that low turnout benefits the Right:

How To Stop McCain From Winning

The only way John McCain wins in 2008 is to cheat. Don't let him. We must win by an overwhelming majority in order to take the election. No 2000-style sportsmanship in 2008 if the election is stolen.

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This I Believe: Our Noble, Essential Decency

(Robert Heinlein, "Our Noble, Essential Decency", from This I Believe (1952))

I'm writing this before the election for two reasons.

1) Because I don't want anybody saying I was influenced by winning or losing the election. That's not what this is about. And

2) Because I want everybody who hasn't voted yet to remember the stakes.

The above recording is Robert Heinlein in 1952, reading his personal declaration on Edward R. Murrow's old radio show, This I Believe:

I am not going to talk about religious beliefs but about matters so obvious that it has gone out of style to mention them. I believe in my neighbors. I know their faults, and I know that their virtues far outweigh their faults.

Take Father Michael, down our road apiece. I’m not of his creed, but I know that goodness and charity and loving kindness shine in his daily actions. I believe in Father Mike. If I’m in trouble, I’ll go to him. My next door neighbor’s a veterinary doctor. Doc will get out of bed after a hard day to help a stray cat—no fee, no prospect of a fee. I believe in Doc.

I believe in my townspeople. You can knock on any door in our town, say “I’m hungry,” and you’ll be fed. Our town is no exception. I found the same ready charity everywhere. For the one who says, “The heck with you, I’ve got mine,” there are a hundred, a thousand, who will say, “Sure pal, sit down.” I know that despite all warnings against hitchhikers, I can step to the highway, thumb for a ride, and in a few minutes a car or a truck will stop and someone will say, “Climb in, Mack. How far you going?”

I believe in my fellow citizens. Our headlines are splashed with crime. Yet for every criminal, there are ten thousand honest, decent, kindly men. If it were not so, no child would live to grow up. Business could not go on from day to day. Decency is not news. It is buried in the obituaries, but it is a force stronger than crime.

I believe in the patient gallantry of nurses, in the tedious sacrifices of teachers. I believe in the unseen and unending fight against desperate odds that goes on quietly in almost every home in the land. I believe in the honest craft of workmen. Take a look around you. There never were enough bosses to check up on all that work. From Independence Hall to the Grand Coulee Dam, these things were built level and square by craftsmen who were honest in their bones.

I believe that almost all politicians are honest. For every bribed alderman, there are hundreds of politicians—low paid or not paid at all—doing their level best without thanks or glory to make our system work. If this were not true, we would never have gotten past the Thirteen Colonies.

I believe in Rodger Young. You and I are free today because of endless unnamed heroes from Valley Forge to the Yalu River. I believe in—I am proud to belong to—the United States. Despite shortcomings—from lynchings, to bad faith in high places—our nation has had the most decent and kindly internal practices and foreign policies to be found anywhere in history.

And finally, I believe in my whole race—yellow, white, black, red, brown—in the honesty, courage, intelligence, durability, and goodness of the overwhelming majority of my brothers and sisters everywhere on this planet. I am proud to be a human being. I believe that we have come this far by the skin of our teeth—that we always make it just for the skin of our teeth—but that we will always make it, survive, endure.

I believe that this hairless embryo with the aching oversized braincase and the opposable thumb—this animal barely up from the apes—will endure, will endure longer than his home planet, will spread out to the other planets—to the stars and beyond—carrying with him his honesty, his insatiable curiosity, his unlimited courage, and his noble essential decency. This I believe with all my heart.

In a week, Americans will finish voting. We believe that "our side" is the correct one to lead the country forward. So do "they". Most of us are sincere in our beliefs and think that those who disagree are merely misguided, not evil. The vast majority of us want the best for the country and our fellow citizens.

Many of us on the Left feel that the elections of both 2000 and 2004 were stolen, and we fear (with good reason) that 2008 may go the same way. We fear that Americans will not elect an African-American to the White House, or that a President-elect Obama will be assassinated, or that there will be violence during his term in office.

Some on the Right fear that international terrorism will somehow "win" if McCain is defeated, or that the evils of socialism will come to America, or that good Christians will be given the Mark of the Beast. They fear that "leftist radicals" will riot if Obama is defeated, or that an obstructionist Congress will halt what they believe is progress in the Middle East or Afghanistan or in fighting illegal immigration.

We are all Americans. We are all confined to this small globe we call Earth. Those of us who are entitled to vote next week will make a decision that will have world-changing effects on every soul on the planet.

We are all in this together. All of us -- "yellow, white, black, red, brown", as Heinlein said -- will suffer the consequences and share the achievements of the next four years. And the next eight years. And the next century, which will be dominated in no small part by decisions we American citizens make in the next seven days.

Regardless of the outcome of the election, regardless of the individual gains and losses, regardless of the emotions left behind in the wake of broken promises, missed expectations, and suspected irregularities, we must remember...

Our Noble, Essential Decency

and that

We Are All in This Together

as we lurch forward toward our preferred futures.

Breathe.

Vote.

Endure.

Sustain.

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Hate Talk Express

Haaretz: McCain attacks on Obama creeping toward 'hate speech':

"The manner in which Senator McCain, Governor [Sarah] Palin and their supporters refer to Senator Obama is creeping toward hate speech," Rabbis for Obama said in a statement on Thursday.
...
"They [the McCain campaign] recently used a uniformed sheriff to warm up the crowd at a rallyby emphasize the senator's middle name," the rabbis wrote. "At another event Senator McCain seemed shocked when one of his supporters stated that Senator Obama was an 'Arab.' That false belief is the fruit of the McCain campaign's emphasizing Senator Obama's middle name."

The rabbis also accused Vice Presidential candidate Palin of asserting that "Senator Obama pals around with terrorists," a claim that denounced as "false" and "built on three distortions and a lie."
...
"They [Republican Jews] know that in the Jewish community this is the moral equivalent of crying fire in a crowded theater," the liberal rabbis said, adding: "The RJC approach harkens back to the classic Republican red baiting tactics of Joe McCarthy and Richard Nixon from the early fifties."

Now I'll tell ya'. If there are any people who know from hate talk, it's them Jew-ish rab-bis. They has been hate-talked to foah ye-ahs.

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"I'm entitled to THE math"

Just before the 2006 midterm elections, Karl Rove said:

I add up to a Republican Senate and Republican House. You may end up with a different math but you are entitled to your math and I'm entitled to THE math.

It didn't turn out that way:

The Senate election was part of the Democratic sweep of the 2006 elections, in which no Congressional or gubernatorial seat held by a Democrat was won by a Republican. Democratic candidates defeated six Republican incumbents: Rick Santorum (Penn.), Mike DeWine (Ohio), Lincoln Chafee (R.I.), Jim Talent (Mo.), Conrad Burns (Mont.), and George Allen (Va.). Incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Lieberman (Conn.) lost an August Democratic primary challenge but won re-election as an independent. Democrats kept their two open seats in Minnesota and Maryland, and Republicans held onto their lone open seat in Tennessee. In Vermont, Bernie Sanders, an independent, was elected to the seat left open by independent Senator Jim Jeffords.

With a mere 1.6 million seconds to go (about 19 days) until the 2008 election, Dick Morris has come out with his prediction for the electoral map:

If the election took place this week, it would be a wipeout of major proportions. Even McCain‘s home state of Arizona has to be classified as leaning toward Obama. McCain, as of now, can be certain of carrying just eight states with a combined total of only 36 electoral votes.

Morris predicts 396 EVs for Obama to a mere 110 EVs for McCain, and only 36 EVs as solidly in McCain's pocket compared to 355 EVs solidly for Obama.

Dick Morris can hardly be considered a solid Democratic partisan. He helped Governor Bill Clinton get re-elected in Arkansas and was a successful Republican strategist before returning to work for President Bill Clinton's second presidential campaign and has since said he'd leave the country if Hillary were elected in 2008. But he's gone waaaay out on a limb to suggest that Arizona and Arkansas are leaning and solidly for Obama and South Carolina and Georgia are presently tossups. It's possible that he's trying a Hail Mary to get out in front of Republican disaster so he can later claim to have been the first to see just how bad it was going to be. Or he might be setting up a position where he can claim that X campaign element he suggested has improved McCain's situation. Or maybe his professional dominatrix told him how it would all turn out.

A More Solid Set of Projections
I've previously mentioned that I follow FiveThirtyEight.com and Electoral-Vote.com. Pollster.com is also good. As of 2008.10.14, FiveThirtyEight's map looks like:

While Electoral-Vote.com's looks like:

There are minor variations, but both show Obama in the 355-360 EV range whereas Pollster.com shows Obama at 313 EVs (but shows 70 tossups -- a far higher number than either FiveThirtyEight or Electoral-Vote):

Right now, polling shows us a rockslide (less than a landslide, but getting there) for Obama. Trends are also encouraging for the Democratic party. Electoral-Vote shows us two different graphs, with and without "leans" EVs:

Even without leaners, Electoral-Vote has Obama over 270 EVs. Pollster.com's trend is harder to read, but shows us more information:

You can see that polls are coming thicker and faster now than earlier in the cycle, and that we're starting to see some real clumping of results and divergence between the red (Republican) and the blue (Democratic).

It looks good for the Democratic party. Republicans are starting to abandon states they would normally win easily. The national Republican organization is beginning to pull money from the national race to shore up state candidates long thought "safe".

The only game-changer left that I can see working for McCain is a successful terrorist attack and even that is unlikely to succeed, since more and more Americans see Obama as more trustworthy in a crisis.

She's warming up in the wings....

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"Governor Sarah Palin abused her power"

The Troopergate report was released today:

Sarah Palin violated the trust Alaskans placed in her as their governor when she fired a state official who had refused to dismiss her ex-brother-in-law from his job as a state trooper, according a legislative report released Friday night.

The long-awaited report into a scandal that’s become known as “Troopergate” found that Palin, the Republican vice presidential nominee, fired the state’s public safety commissioner, Walt Monegan, partly because he refused to fire Palin’s ex-brother-in-law, Mike Wooten, who was locked in a bitter custody battle with Palin’s sister, Molly McCann.

From the report:

For the reasons explained in section IV of this report, I find that Governor Sarah Palin abused her power by violating Alaska Statute 39.52.110(a) of the Alaska Executive Branch Ethics Act. Alaska Statute 39.52.110(a) provides:

"The legislature reaffirms that each public officer holds office as a public trust, and any effort to benefit a personal or financial interest through official action is a violation of that trust."

This report is the end result of a process begun by "a unanimous bi-partisan vote of the Alaska Legislative Council taken on July 28, 2008". Nineteen people were interviewed, ten "individuals were properly served [either personally serviced by a process server or whose attorney accepted on their behalf], and the person failed to appear". Number nine on that list is "Todd Palin — The First Gentleman". "Out of deference to her position, no subpoena was issued for Governor Sarah Palin".

Needless to say, neither Todd Palin nor Sarah Palin provided information to the investigator.

Until Todd Palin complies with the legally issued subpoena (and he should be found in contempt until he does so) and Sarah Palin cooperates with the investigation as she has previously agreed, McCain and Palin should be asked "do you believe in the rule of law and in complying with legally issued subpoenas" at every opportunity.

There's more...

Palin's Plunge in Polls — 47% Concerned About McCain Finishing a Single Term

September 7:

Talk about a bounce! Via USA Today, among likely voters, John McCain has a 10-point post-convention lead over Barack Obama, the only such lead since January.

Most important is the enthusiasm that Sarah Palin has generated on the ticket — quite a surge

September 16:

On the question of Sarah Palin's favorability, here are the numbers by gender:

Women: Favorable 37%, Unfavorable 36% [+1]
Men: Favorable 48%, Unfavorable 27% [+21]

Among women, it's a wash. Among men, it's a blowout.

And on the question of whether the Palin choice makes voters more or less likely to vote for McCain, here's the gender split:

Women: More Likely 25%, Less Likely 28% (-3)
Men: More Likely 29%, Less Likely 21% (+8)

Now guess which group has changed its vote. In the August poll, women favored Obama 53%-38%; now they favor him ... 54%-38%. Almost identical numbers.

It's the men who've switched -- 48%-45% Obama in August, 53%-40% McCain now.

September 19:

(Image: Al Rodgers, found at Daily Kos)

September 20:

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin blew onto the national political scene like a surprise hit movie - with an exciting script, a new landscape, a fresh face - that suddenly everyone wanted to see and talk about.
...
But now that the Republican vice presidential candidate has been seen and heard by millions - and parodied on "Saturday Night Live" before millions more - a question has been raised about the "Palin Effect." While GOP loyalists apparently still love the movie, is it starting to wear thin on the rest of America, particularly the legions of middle-of-the-road voters?

"Is she a one-hit wonder? Unless she does something radically different from what she's currently doing, yes," Cal State Sacramento political communications Professor Barbara O'Connor said this week. She said that in the 23 days since Palin was named the GOP vice presidential choice, her script has been a limited and increasingly predictable one. "It's fine to say she needed some time to get her footing ... but we're well past that."

October 2:

Public Policy Polling surveyed four states immediately after the Republican convention and then again three weeks later. In those states, Gov. Sarah Palin's favorability has dropped by a net average of 12 points, and Sen. Barack Obama's standing in the horse race has improved by an average of seven points.

October 2:

...public assessments of Sarah Palin's readiness have plummeted, and she may now be a drag on the Republican ticket among key voter groups, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll

October 7:

(Graph: Evan Robinson, Group News Blog, Data: Alaska Daily News, 2008.10.07)

In recent Alaska polling, Sarah Palin's negatives have more than doubled since the end of August. Her positives have dropped more than 15 points. In Alaska.

Like Hubris said:

Why does it matter?

Because 47% of the electorate worry that John McCain would fail to complete even one term:

It's one of the largest age gaps between presidential candidates in American history.

Republican Sen. John McCain is 72, a skin cancer survivor, and would be the oldest man sworn in for a first term as president. His opponent, Democratic Sen. Barack Obama, is 47 and the fourth-youngest major party nominee.

A new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. Poll finds that may be a political liability for McCain. Nearly half of the Americans surveyed, 47 percent, are concerned that McCain would not finish a four-year term as president in good health.

Put Palin's plunging polled positive prospects (I hate it when I get stuck on 'P') alongside the electorate's concern's about McCain's health and welfare, and you have a lot of people worried about Palin landing in the Oval Office. Selecting Palin as the VP may prove to have been the death-knell for McCain's candidacy:

THOUGHTS ON SARAH PALIN'S RNC SPEECH - In a word, nauseating. Gov. Sarah Palin, who we are being led to believe is a 'conservative's conservative,' had the opportunity to outline her policies in a clear and coherent fashion. She had the opportunity to share her vision of America, and how starkly it contrasts to the socialist vision of Barack Obama. Instead, we got sarcasm, whining, and just plain old nastiness. The partisan hacks in attendance ate it up with a spoon, of course; but I can't help but feel that 75% of America was watching and thinking 'this is Dick Cheney in a skirt,' only nowhere near as shrewd. We got the tired neo-con lines about terrorism, Islam, protecting poor little ole' Israel, so on and so forth. Absent a 9-11 type disaster sometime in the next 63 days (always a possibility, I suppose), that is not going to sell in the year 2008. Not a chance, as most Americans have woken up to the GOP fear mongering, which is why Obama's pie-in-the-sky rhetoric of 'change' and 'hope' is working as well as it is with the still-quite-ignorant masses.

I don't think I need add anything more.

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No More Clowns: McCain v. McCain: The Bailout

(Video Source: The Daily Show, 2008.10.02; Text & Added Audio: Evan Robinson, Group News Blog)

John McCain, in a sequence put together by The Daily Show, demonstrates his exquisite command of both sides of the argument on the bailout bill.

Aren't TiVo and transcoding wonderful?

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The Numbers That Say McCain Loses in November...

48 > 14

A CBS News/NY Times poll released on the 17th says that 48% of voters think "the economy and jobs" is the most important issue in deciding whom to support for President. 14% think "terrorism and national security" is most important, followed by 10% concerned about "gas prices and energy" and 10% worried about "health care". Only 8% of registered voters cited the Iraq war.

Conventional wisdom says that Democrats win when elections are about the economy and Republicans win when elections are about national security (quote from 2008.01.23):

Voter attention is now on the U.S. economy, buffeted by a housing market that is threatening to tip the country into an election-year recession.

"If the economy is sliding into a recession that would favor the Democrats," said Andy Smith, political science professor at the University of New Hampshire.

But a campaign about national security would favor Republicans, he said, particularly if Republicans nominate McCain, a former Vietnam prisoner of war and a critic of Bush's handling of the Iraq war.

This is not a reason to get complacent. It is a reason to feel better about the upcoming election.

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Less Dorothy and More Like the Flying Monkeys

Our friend and fellow blogger, Michael Shaw over at Bagnews Notes has a great post up this week that I thought might be of interest to folks here since we have had a lot of in depth sometimes heated discussions about gender during this election season.

Bagnews is a blog about analyzing images in the corporate media.

The one in the last week that struck me was this;


Stephan Savoia/AP. Sept. 10, 2008. Fairfax, Va.

What do you think of this image? What do you think the AP is trying to say by running this one? Michael had some interesting comments,

The camera fascinates me. I wonder about the "demographics" of the audience members in this Fairfax, Virginia crowd and wonder how representative they are. (Class has definitely been on my mind as I've thought about this image, especially as the newswire has filled up lately with more pictures of enthusiastic women at Palin/McCain rallies. In that regard, what I find actually atypical about this image -- which should be good for an email, or two -- is how much younger and somehow "less-Republican" looking these women appear.) Of course, the shot is so sexually charged. And yet, I look at those shoes and I keep thinking: the Ruby Slippers. But then, I hate the analogy because I see Palin as more of a wannabe.

I see less Ruby-Slippers/ Dorothy and more Flying Monkeys carrying away all the sensible sane governance of America and throwing it in a dungeon somewhere. (in Alaska perhaps?)

The choice of imagery shown with Palin stories also reminds me that a lot of the narrative about gender and the direction that the narrative has taken has been trumped up and manipulated by the media.

One story from early on in the Gov. of Alaska saga really struck me. When people were questioning her decision to run as VP when Palin has a pregnant teen and a new baby with downs syndrome; the media screeched that no one would ask these questions of a man.

That is utter bullshit.

As you know I was a big Howard Dean supporter in 03-04. Well early on, Howard's son was in a drinking and theft situation, and the media and GOP right wing blog types were yelling from the rooftops about how if he could not manage his family and help keep his kids out of trouble why in the world was he thinking of running for president?

Now that is not to say that sexism has not been a huge issue in politics. But I do remind myself, and am reminded by stories that run the picture above, that much of the narrative is manipulated by corporate media to sell advertising and get viewers eyes on their message. It would take a ton, not grains of salt to have a proper filter to view this stuff.

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Parenting While Political

VS.

I can imagine that it must be hard running for office with a family. Especially a family with small kids. And while I agree that the kids should NOT be fodder for attacks and rumors; I do think you can tell a lot about a candidate by how they treat their family on the trail.

The Obamas have made a serious and concerted effort to keep their kids safe, happy and balanced. When they do rarely appear on stage, Dad and Mom both are careful to make sure the kids are included, cared for, and not scared.

The Bidens hug- and praise and Joe even carries a grandkid on his hip.

In the case of the Palins, not so much.

How did Sarah treat her young ones when she yanked them up on stage, into the spotlight?

Palin brought one of her daughters-- 8 years old or so --on to the stage with her and then ignored her. The girl just trailed after her mom from one side of the stage to the other. Mom seemed unaware, uncaring. There is an unconfirmed rumor as well that she did not tell any of her kids why they were going to Ohio on the day of the announcement. Campaigns are hard and it is important to make your family feel comfortable. This certainly does not seem to be a Palin priority.

To be fair Sarah Palin has no experience in such big events on the national stage. But this does raise alarm bells for me.
(h/t to L.K. for raising the alert)

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If He Can Give That Speech to Every American, It's Over!

America, we cannot turn back. Not with so much work to be done. Not with so many children to educate, and so many veterans to care for. Not with an economy to fix and cities to rebuild and farms to save. Not with so many families to protect and so many lives to mend. America, we cannot turn back. We cannot walk alone. At this moment, in this election, we must pledge once more to march into the future. Let us keep that promise - that American promise - and in the words of Scripture hold firmly, without wavering, to the hope that we confess.

I Believe!

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Plot Against Obama "no credible threat"

What We're Told
According to various news reports, three suspects were arrested Sunday. Erratic driving, a suspended driver's license, and a vehicle rented by someone else led to the first arrest, followed by two more upon questioning the first suspect. The three men, Tharin Gartrell, Shawn Adolf, and Nathan Johnson, were all high on meth when arrested. The initial arrest also netted two scoped rifles, a spotting scope, ammunition,two wigs, camouflage clothing, a bulletproof vest, two walkie-talkies, 4.4 grams of meth, and 3 fake IDs.

One or more of the men may have ties to white supremacists, although whether the ties are significant or just assumed because they were wearing swastikas or totenkopf insignia is not clear.


Security Response
Officials say there was "no credible threat" against Obama. Although the men made verbal threats against Obama and racist remarks concerning the White House, the plans were "more aspirational, perhaps, than operational," said US Attorney Troy Eid. "The law recognizes a difference between a true threat -- one that can be carried out -- and the reported racist rantings of a drug addict."


Ballistics Analysis

The real question is, could they have killed Obama with those weapons? It's been publicly released that the plan was to shoot Obama with a .22-250 sighted for 750 yards from a high vantage point.

Update: a New York Post story indicates the plotters also had a .270.

I did a little research. In consideration of the potential for misuse, I will deliberately alter some of the data I provide by enough to make it useless but not enough to reduce the clarity of the argument. I will also not link to any of my calculations, just the base data from which they were derived.

Although the corporate media persists in referring to the weapons found as "sniper rifles", the .22-250 is not a round any sniper would choose for a 750 yard shot. The most common rounds used by sharpshooters and snipers in western armies are probably the .308 (aka 7.62mm) or .50. Ballistically the .22-250 is vastly inferior to either the .308 or the .50.

At 750 yards the .22-250 firing a 60g bullet with a 3600 fps muzzle velocity will have a terminal velocity of about 1338 fps and deliver about 240 ft-lbs of energy.

At 750 yards the .308 firing a 180g bullet with a 2600 fps muzzle velocity will have a terminal velocity of about 1250 fps and deliver about 625 ft-lbs of energy.

Update: At 750 yards the .270 firing a 150g bullet with a 2822 fps muzzle velocity will have a terminal velocity of about 1900 fps and deliver about 1250 ft-lbs of energy. This particular load and round is very efficient.

At 750 yards the .50 firing a 660g bullet with a 2800 fps muzzle velocity will have a terminal velocity of about 1800 fps and deliver about 4800 ft-lbs of energy.

Tw0 hundred and forty ft-lbs is enough if you can put it in the right place. It's about 3/4 the impact from a point-blank .45 handgun. Assuming a 6 mph (roughly what's expected Thursday night) crosswind, a shooter would have to hold more than a yard to one side of and more than 12 feet above the intended target. Actually, above the intended target's position between 1 and 1 1/4 seconds in the future. A great shooter could do it, but it would take a great shooter.

Anyone who's using meth isn't going to make that shot. Meth use commonly raises blood pressure and heart rate and often produces tremors. None of these improve accuracy. Moving up to the .308 or the .50 means that less accuracy is required because there's more energy imparted to the target. If these guys were carrying a Barrett 82A1/M107 I think their threat would have been taken a lot more seriously.

On the basis of ballistic analysis alone, I believe that we have to conclude that these guys have seen Shooter a few too many times. (In the spirit of full disclosure, I did not see the movie, but I did read the book.)

Update: The report that they were carrying a .270 is considerably more worrisome. It would still take a fantastic shot, and it seems unlikely that a meth-head could make it. However, the .270 allows much more room for error. If the NYPost report is accurate, I would feel much less certain about their failure even if they managed to get a shot off. It appears to me that the local security forces may have downplayed this event.

Liquid Explosives Plot Response

It might be instructive to consider this threat and compare the response to the "liquid explosives" threat of 2006. A group of suspects was infiltrated by UK police and arrested, possibly on the insistence of the US.

The alleged plot (eight accused conspirators [out of 24 arrested] are on trial awaiting a jury verdict) involved creating explosives on board an airliner from multiple sources -- specifically hydrogen peroxide, sulfuric acid, and acetone (nail polish remover). By generating their own explosive on board, the alleged plotters planned to bypass security precautions in place. Several of the accused are alleged to have created "martyrdom videos", but have claimed that they were part of a documentary film. Three of the eight have pled guilty to one or more charges, and the jury has been deliberating for over a month on the remainder of the charges.

Skeptics expressed concern over both the reality and the feasibility of the alleged plot. There were no plane tickets, many of the alleged conspirators didn't even have passports (and thus could not have gotten on the transatlantic flights they were allegedly targeting), and there are significant questions about the feasibility of generating their own explosives on-board.

Photo Credit: Tim Boyle/Getty Images from the MSNBC website

Despite these concerns, there was an immediate ban on the carrying of liquids on board airliners. Given that the concern was the combination of several precursors into an effective explosive, the random mixing of confiscated materials in barrels seemed perverse.

More than two years later, without anyone demonstrating the feasibility of the alleged explosive plot, without a conviction after a month or more of deliberation, while the supposed explosive precursors are randomly mixed by TSA in trash barrels, we are still unable to carry water onto airplanes.


Threat Assessment & Response

It seems to me that we have a problem with threat assessment or response.

First, consider the initial official response. The response to the Obama plot was "no problem". The response to the Airliner plot was "the sky is falling! the sky is falling!" Is this difference a valid distinction between the realistic threats? No. Is it a valid distinction between the perceived threat? No. The Obama plotters appear to have motive and means. Whether they could actually achieve their aims is questionable, but they had an actually lethal weapon and some kind of a plan. They represent an immediate potential threat. The Airline plotters (who were under surveillance by the police) had no effective weapon, no tickets, and no access to their targets. They may have been a potential threat, but there was no immediacy.

Second, consider the actual threat levels. Neither of these plots was going to succeed. The Obama plotters could never have made the shot necessary. The airliner plotters were never going to manage to create a functional explosive on-board.

Third, consider the responding agencies. The Obama plotters are being assessed by the US Secret Service and local police agencies. The Airliner plotters were assessed (as little to no threat) by the local police, but re-assessed (as an enormous immediate threat) by national intelligence agencies and political figures.

Upon examining these points, I think a valid question arises: is there a political dimension to these responses?


Updated: Dave Neiwert @ FDL on the event

Updated: 20080828 10:45am : Added NYPost story, .270 ballistics, and additional conclusion at end of Ballistics Analysis section

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Another Interesting and Tight Race, Jeff Merkley in Oregon

My good friend from Oregon, has a post up on Kos about a critical race in Oregon. Jeff Merkley is another true progressive candidate. His current accomplishments are well laid out in the post including these hightlights

Among Merkely’s accomplishments are:
• Creating a ‘Rainy Day’ fund to shield schools and other state services from getting hit in the next recession.
• Increasing educational funding
• Increasing funding for Oregon Universities, Colleges & Community Colleges
• Standing up for consumers by taking on payday and car title lenders who have since dramatically reduced their presence in Oregon.
• Implementing a ban on junk food in Oregon schools (takes affect in ’09)
• Led historic bipartisan ethics reform to ban gifts from lobbyists, close the revolving door for legislators, and restore the independent Ethics Commission.
• Led the charge on passing Oregon’s domestic partnership law & championed a non-discrimination lawensuring that no one in Oregon can lose their home or be fired from their job just because of their sexual orientation.

In summary, he kicked ass as Speaker of the Oregon State House. Imagine how much Oregonians & Americans could accomplish with an actual legislator in the Senate instead of an animated cardboard cutout like Gordon Smith who just wastes oxygen and plays dress-up maverick!

Read the whole thing. Weigh in on this race. We really do have to fight up and down the ticket for every seat we can get. Donna Edwards called on the netroots to send her more progressives in the house and senate. She said it is pretty lonely there right now. We need to get busy.

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McCain Speaks Out of Both Sides of His Mouth

Photograph: John McCain Wallpaper, John McCain Campaign Website

Photo illustration: Evan Robinson, Group News Blog

John McCain likes to present himself as a truth-telling Maverick who isn't afraid to buck the system or fight the people in Washington DC. He wants you to believe that he has principles, he stands by them, and he'd never, ever, tell you a lie for his own benefit.

But that's just a concocted image. Always has been, always will be. John McCain is either a liar, an opportunist, or so senile that he can't remember what he said from day to day and year to year. He's so unreliable that his own campaign has said that what John McCain says isn't to be taken as official policy of the campaign.

Yes, you heard that right. John McCain does not officially speak for John McCain.

A relatively simple search of the Intartubes will find numerous times when McCain vacillates, backtracks, contradicts himself, says he never said something he just said, and generally fumbles around reality and the truth with all the facility of a drunken leprechaun who's broken his leg, has crutches that aren't the same length, whose shoelaces are tied together, wearing sunglasses so dark he can't see where he's going, at night, on ice.

At Saturday's We The People event in Seattle, Rachel Maddow pointed out that the Democratic Party seems to have an identity problem. They self-identify as "not that!" (where that is the Republican Party's rush to shred the Constitution, commit illegal acts inside and outside the U.S., engage in wanton imperial adventures contravening international law, and ... like that). Rachel believes that the Democratic Party needs it's own identity.

So how about Intellectual Honesty and Consistency for a start? John McCain wavers in the wind. He got his ass kicked in 2000 by a vicious libel spread by George Bush's surrogates, but he embraces George Bush in 2008 when trying to get nominated. He's been tortured and says it's wrong, but he votes to allow the U.S. to torture prisoners.

This election is not just about Barack Obama. It's about John McCain and Barack Obama. And John McCain does not deserve to lead the United States. It's that simple.

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Ralph Nader, Stop Hurting America. Don't Run.

Ok, really, enough already. The last 8 years were brought to us in part by Nader. Meaning well or not. Mad at corporate interests in politics, I get it. But enough already. Ask the people of the gulf coast if they would have preferred Al Gore. Ask the VoteVets folks, ask the teachers and public school administrators. Hell, ask half the damn planet.

Ask me... I'd say;
"Ralph, Stop Running For President. You are not helping."

Independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader received 6 percent of the vote in a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Wednesday, bringing him closer to his goal of participating in the upcoming presidential debates. The CNN/ORC poll of registered voters shows Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in a statistical dead heat at 46 percent and 43 percent respectively, while Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr received 3 percent of the vote.

Nader's camp, who complains he isn't given the same chance to promote his candidacy's objectives as the other two major party's presidential nominees, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., says he needs to poll nationally at about 10 percent to gain entry into the upcoming town hall debates, as well as the Google-sponsored internet debate set for Sept. 18 in New Orleans.--By: Rick Pedraza, Newsmax

Has Nader done a lot of good work in his life? Yes. But this is not time for a morally superior, pointless, ego-drive run for the Whitehouse. All well meaning, thinking people, should put their efforts into stopping the current administration from passing on it's flawed policies, programs and plans to the next administration. And a 3rd party run is going to hurt us. I know lots of people think that the 2 party system is hopelessly flawed. After we stem the current tide of destruction I encourage those folks to work to try to change the system. But not now.

I also believe that Nader is forever flawed and can no longer be the 3rd party standard barer. Not after his behavior in '04.

Stuff like this;

PHILADELPHIA, Oct. 7 - In the rush to collect enough signatures to put Ralph Nader on the ballot in the swing state Pennsylvania, one father and son signed the petitions 60 times between them. Other names were paired with addresses that do not exist - unless, as a judge noted, they are in the middle of the Delaware River.-- By KATE ZERNIKE

and this.

Enough.Just.Stop.

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