Friday, October 3, 2008

Vice Presidential Debate: CBS Poll of Undecideds

Biden Wins Debate #1 With Undecided, says CBS News

Polling of 473 uncommitted voters gives a clear victory to Biden.

"NINETY-EIGHT PERCENT of uncommitted voters think Biden is knowledgable, NINETY-SEVEN PERCENT see him as prepared, NINETY-ONE PERCENT see him prepared for the job."
--CBS News Poll

CBS News

Forty-six percent of the uncommitted voters surveyed say Democrat Joe Biden won the debate, compared to 21 percent for Republican Sarah Palin. Thirty-three percent said it was a tie.

Both candidates improved their overall image tonight. Fifty-three percent of those surveyed say they now have a better impression of Biden. Five percent say they have a worse opinion of the Delaware senator, while 42 percent say they debate did not change their opinion.

Fifty-five percent say they now have a better opinion of Palin. Fourteen percent say they have a worse opinion, while 30 percent say their opinion hasn't changed.

After the debate, 66 percent see Palin as knowledgeable about important issues – up from 43 percent before the debate. But Biden still has the advantage on this – 98 percent saw him as knowledgeable after the debate. That figure was 79 percent before the debate.

Uncommitted voters’ views of Palin’s preparedness for the job of vice president also improved as a result of her debate performance - but they are still nowhere near the percentage that thinks Biden is prepared.

Fifty-five percent say Palin is prepared for the job, up from 39 percent before the debate. Ninty-seven percent say Biden is prepared, up from 81 percent pre-debate.

Although Palin made some gains on the question of whether she could serve as president if needed, she rose just 9 points on that measure. Now 44 percent say the Alaska governor could be an effective president. Ninety-one percent said Biden could be effective as president, up from 66 percent before the debate.
Biden is winning.

PLEASE go look at these polls:
  • Hominid Views University of Washington Statistics Professor. I know and respect him. Good guy. I like his numbers.
  • Well known, well respected, been around for a while.

The debates have MASSIVELY moved the undecided voters towards Obama.

Nationally, Obama is ahead of McCain 49% to 40%.

As we keep telling you however, it is electoral math which truly counts. A ten percent national lead translates to roughly a 100% electoral lead. Of course, one has to subtract slightly for Obama being black -- some people will claim to vote for him in polls, but probably not in the actual voting booths (the Bradley effect) -- and we also need to translate for outright theft, stealing votes electronically (about which I'll do an entire post probably Monday.)

Just remember, a 10% lead in the national poll, before adjustments, translates to roughly a 100 point electoral lead.

National state-by-state polling data at BOTH sites which I trust, shows current electoral maps in the 330s for Obama.

Let me give you that again:

Right now as I write this:

At the last debate Obama had roughly 278-284 electoral votes in the polls at these two sites (HV normally polls Obama slightly higher, as they don't adjust for likely voters as EV does. This is inside baseball talk, and you can ignore it unless you actually give a damn, in which case you are better served reading the methodology pieces they write at the respective sites.) The point is...

Obama is UP 60-65 electoral votes in one week!

Why? From one debate, a MASSIVE BREAKDOWN with the bailout and McCain's association with the economic breakdown and Bush etc, and Palin's crappy performances in an interview.

One week... We now have Florida, Ohio (without which NO Republican can possibly win or [I believe] has ever won), Virginia is solidly Blue, and other states I never thought I'd see Blue in my life are starting to get there.

GO LOOK AT THE MAPS on the polling sites.


This is not nearly over. There are Governor's races that are hanging fire (like in Washington State.) Congressman and Congresswomen. And Senators.

WORK, WORK, WORK YOUR ASS OFF. Don't just hang around the blog.

We love you, but GET TO WORK.

Watch how these numbers shift over the next three days. It will take three full days for the numbers to reflect Thursday's debate. The numbers I just put how don't reflect the debate at all.

Remember -- it's ELECTORAL VOTE that matters. One vote is all it takes (except in two states) to win that state. National polls don't mean anything, not really. This is 50 state races for President.

Use this post as an OPEN THREAD for electoral politics. Also talk Senate and Congressional races.

Remember that in the last debate snap poll, Obama also won by similar numbers.

I predict a 100 point+ electoral college win by Obama. (In my dreams, I think Obama might do as well as Reagan did in his first election -- 489 - 49 electoral votes. Now THAT is never going to happen (Reagan took all but six states and DC) but I think we could do 400 EV, and all but maybe 15 states if we keep pushing. It's a dream, okay? My dream is 400.)

OPEN THREAD on predictions for the election. Try not to make WAGS; ground your opinion in something please.

I point to 8 years of Bushism, Palin, repeated hail Mary passes by the McCain campaign, lies lies lies to the point even the mass media is calling him out, Pain again, the economy and McCain taking some of the blame for that, the price of oil, Iraq in the background of everything, and Obama passing the test of being Presidential in Debate #1. This is why I predict a 100+ point electoral college win.

Put it all together and what have you got?

Barack Obama is the next President of the United States.

Rock & Roll baby. Rock and fracking Roll.