Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Super Duper Tuesday Redux

Churches. Map from Regionalism and Religiosity at Strange Maps.
Click for LARGE image. h/t Meta Watershed.

Assessment & Prediction

The red in the map above -- you can open it up by clicking -- are the Baptists. Brown is Mormon. Yellow is Lutheran.

Do you see why Huckleberry Lawrd'd his way through the south, and Romes never had a flipping chance? Huck's people ran those dirty fucking heretics (many of them immigrants from Lord knows where, dirt poor with their filthy diseases, taking jobs away from hard working Americans) out of Ohio, Missouri, and Illinois 170+ years ago? Damned if it can't be done again, and god-damned if Romeo boy with Jesus only knows how many wives is getting any votes from any good honest self-righteous true Americans. Yes sir. Our votes are going to Huck. Or maybe Ron Paul, who understands about them colored folk.

Look at the map and it all becomes clear.

Now Hubris Sonic seems to think Obama Mania is going to be enough to carry the day. I can see why he thinks it. I think the big mo is running two weeks too late and Clinton will get to the convention barely ahead of Obama with enough delegates to either win on the first ballot, given her edge in Super Delegates and the uncommitted, or...

We go to a second ballot and all hell breaks loose.

I'm not bothering to explain the precise rules of when delegates are set free to go their own way -- okay, so I don't actually know them; that's what the internets were made for -- but when it comes to running a tight-ass ship, today's media frenzy (fuck-up by the Clinton campaign) in New York City not-withstanding, I'll bet on the Clinton's many years and two prior national campaigns every time.

Now if even the vaunted Clinton discipline breaks down, we've got us a Show. Heh.

One possibility is a nomination from the floor of literally anyone constitutionally eligible to be President. Thirty-five and a native-born U.S. citizen, which means born a U.S. citizen, including people born in embassies, overseas to U.S. citizens who reported the birth appropriately under most circumstances, and a few other catagories. Naturalized citizens (Ar-nuld) need not apply. Fine by me.

A nomination could be made from the floor of Edwards. Of Dean. Of Oprah. (Seriously. Oprah could be nominated.) So could Al Gore.

Imagine a ticket of Al Gore and Obama... that's a possible outcome if the convention goes past two or three ballots without resolution. Or Clinton/Obama. Or Obama/Clinton.

I think the odds are 60/40 Clinton pulls it off. But as Hubris Sonic says, the momentum is with Obama. For sure, I say, if he'd had an extra two weeks, he'd make it. I think he's behind the curve and Clinton is too deeply entrenched.

Further, Obama's positives are as high right now as they ever will be. He's riding a media wave. No one is attacking him in any serious way and he has nowhere to go but down. Clinton has her unfavorable's sky high and has nowhere to go but up, because she's Hillary Clinton and the right-wing hates her more than they hate Black people and Jews.

But Hubris could be right. It could go Obama's way. That's why I'm saying 60/40 Clinton. It is that close. ONE person changing their vote could tie it up. TWO people would be a landslide the other way.

Spent Super Tuesday evening at a Puget Sound bloggers party thrown by the Northwest Progressive Institute. Joel Connelly of the Seattle PI also was there. Good political conversation. I like the local bloggers and writers scene. We got the news Obama is coming to Washington State next Friday. Which means most likely, so is Clinton. I'll update my prediction after hearing both speak. Sooner if something major changes.

On the Republican side, exit polls -- The Littlest Gator pointed this out to me, and then I went digging deeply into the exits myself -- show while people are voting for McCain, even the folks voting for him, about half of them hate his 100 year war, even in enormously Republican states such as Arizona or parts of the south. McCain, yep. War, hell no.

Our nominee should make the war the issue. Clinton has the tougher problem given she voted for going to Iraq and plans to keep forces there, but she could shift her position to withdrawing troops, contrasting herself starkly with McCain. Huge payoff. Obama can anti-war contrast himself cleanly, although I'm not satisfied with his commitment to get the hell out. Clean that up and he's positioned to knock McCain silly. Enormous payout electorally.

Either candidate could beat McCain here and likely win the election straight-up on McCain's War. Especially if McCain is tied to the inevitable resumption of the draft.

Finally, Obama does not have the Latino or Asian vote. Or the female vote. Not to say many women aren't voting for him. But many more women are voting for Clinton. And overwhelmingly, Asians and Latinos are voting for Clinton.

Enough. Flux. Momentum for Obama. Organization and rules/delegate count for Clinton. Fight on... remembering it's Republicans we're fighting.