Schneier on Schneipers

Internet security guru Bruce Schneier points to a fascinating article on snipers:

Snipers are nasty, everyone knows that. They hunt people like animals, killing them without giving them a chance to fight or even to surrender. Few soldiers are more hated; even their own armies often seem less than pleased to have them around.
...
It might be because there's another side to snipers and sniping after all. In particular, even though a sniper will often be personally responsible for huge numbers of deaths - body counts in the hundreds for an individual shooter are far from unheard of - as a class snipers kill relatively few people compared to the effects they achieve. Furthermore, when a sniper kills someone, it is almost always a person they meant to kill, not just someone standing around in the wrong place and time. These are not things that most branches of the military can say.

But, for a well-trained military sniper at least, "collateral damage" - the accidental killing and injuring of bystanders and unintended targets - is almost nonexistent. Mistakes do occur, but compared to a platoon of regular soldiers armed with automatic weapons, rockets, grenades etc a sniper is delicacy itself. Compared to crew-served and vehicle weapons, artillery, tanks, air support or missile strikes, a sniper is not just surgically precise but almost magically so. Yet he (or sometimes she) is reviled as the next thing to a murderer, while the mainstream mass slaughter people are seen as relatively normal.

Consider the team who put a strike jet into the air: a couple of aircrew, technicians, armourers, planners, their supporting cooks and medics and security and supply people. Perhaps fifty or sixty people, then, who together send up a plane which can deliver a huge load of bombs at least twice a day. Almost every week in Afghanistan and Iraq right now, such bombs are dropped. The nature of heavy ordnance being what it is, these bombs kill and maim not just their targets (assuming there is a correctly-located target) but everyone else around. Civilian deaths in air strikes are becoming a massive issue for NATO and coalition troops in Afghanistan.

Those sixty people, in a busy week, could easily put hundreds of tons of munitions into a battlefield - an amount of destructive power approaching that of a small nuclear weapon. This kind of firepower can and will kill many times more people than sixty snipers could in the same time span - and many of the dead will typically be innocent bystanders, often including children and the elderly. Such things are happening, on longer timescales, as this article is written. Furthermore, all these bomber people - even the aircrew - run significantly less personal risk than snipers do.

But nobody thinks of a bomb armourer, or a "fighter" pilot", or a base cook as a cowardly assassin. Their efforts are at least as deadly per capita, they run less personal risks, but they're just doing their jobs. And let's not forget everyone else: artillerymen, tank crews, machine gunners. Nobody particularly loathes them, or considers them cowardly assassins.

In fact, the hated invisible sniper - remorseless, cold-hearted, often responsible for more deaths than the blackest-hearted serial murderer in civil life - has some of the cleanest hands on the battlefield. He is surely one of the most economical combatants, generally requiring fewer than five bullets (in well-trained militaries, fewer than two) to kill an enemy, where line troops will fire thousands of rounds to achieve the same effect. And the sniper's kills are often high-value enemies, too; officers or valuable specialists. Snipers on the whole tend to avoid mowing down hapless footsoldiers en masse, certainly when compared to the rest of the armed forces.

Most Americans have, at most, two real-life icons for "the sniper":

• Tom Berenger in Sniper (1, 2, & 3), with jumbled anecdotes taken from Marine Gunnery Sergeant Carlos Hathcock (Charles Henderson's Marine Sniper); or
• Jude Law vs. Ed Harris in Enemy at the Gates, with jumbled anecdotes taken from William Craig's Enemy at the Gates and Vasily Chuikov's The Battle for Stalingrad.

Both have grains of truth surrounded by large piles of salt, and neither addresses the essential points above concerning the separation of the sniper from other troops in the same force.

(Photo: U.S. Marine Gunnery Sargeant Carlos Hathcock; from Patriotic Thunder, original provenance unknown)

If there is a true legend in American sniping, it must be Gunny Hathcock, the "White Feather". Hathcock had 93 confirmed kills in Vietnam but is widely assumed to have actually killed more than 300 enemy soldiers, including an NVA General. In his first deployment, Hathcock crawled more than a kilometer through a grassy field patrolled by NVA, made his shot, and crawled back out while the NVA searched for him on foot and in motor vehicles:

Hathcock only once removed the white feather from his bush hat while deployed in Vietnam. During a volunteer mission on his first deployment, he crawled over a thousand meters of field to shoot a commanding NVA general. He wasn't informed of the details of the mission until he was en route to his insertion point aboard a helicopter. This effort took four days and three nights, without sleep, of constant inch-by-inch crawling. In Carlos's words, one enemy soldier (or "hamburger" as Carlos called them), "shortly after sunset", almost stepped on him as he lay camouflaged with grass and vegetation in a meadow. At one point he was nearly bitten by a bamboo viper but had the presence of mind to not move and give up his position. As the general was stretching in the morning, Carlos fired a single shot which struck him in the chest and killed him. He had to crawl back instead of run when soldiers started searching.

After serving in Vietnam, Hathcock returned to active duty and led and trained snipers for the Marine Corps.

(Photo: Lyudmila Pavlichenko; original provenance unknown)

Perhaps the most famous Soviet sniper was Lyudmila Pavlichenko, about whom Woody Guthrie wrote "Miss Pavlichenko (sound warning)", with the chorus:

Fell by your gun, yes,
Fell by your gun,
For more than 300 nazis fell by your gun.

Major Pavlichenko had 309 confirmed kills during the first two years of the Great Patriotic War of the Soviet Union. As one of 2000 female snipers in the Red Army, she was assigned to the 25th Infantry Division and fought in the Ukraine from Odessa to Sevastopol, winning the Order of Lenin and being made a Hero of the Soviet Union. After being wounded, she went on goodwill tours of Canada and the US before returning to the Soviet Union to train snipers.

The Loneliness of the Long Distance Shooter

The idea that snipers should be "nasty" and that their fellow soldiers "seem less than pleased to have them around" probably arises from two causes.

First is that snipers have much less psychological distance from their targets than most soldiers. A grunt with a rifle most often fires to suppress, but even effective fire is over iron sights or through a low-magnification scope. Snipers fire almost exclusively "for effect" and see their opponents "up close and personal" in high-magnification scopes or spotting scopes. Grunts fire upon command, yielding personal responsibility and gaining distance. Snipers must choose when to shoot and can only share responsibility with their spotters.

Second is that, while snipers have less distance from their victims, snipers rarely create "collateral damage." Grunts with rifles or artillery by necessity do more damage than is needed. Snipers rarely do. As noted in the quoted article, an arty unit can drop the equivalent of a small nuclear weapon over a week's time, while the sniper may execute the same military target by expending one .308, .334, or .50 round.

It's a brutal combination. Most men in war will not kill without conditioning. The conditioning of the line soldier includes many distancing techniques (see Grossman's On Killing for details), including physical distancing and psychological distancing via transferring responsibility to authority (waiting for orders to fire) and spreading responsibility among a pool (collectivizing action -- not "I killed him" but "we killed him"). Such conditioning methods are useless to the sniper and, in fact, antithetical to the mission. The line soldier's comparison of his responsibility for enemy deaths and the sniper's responsibility for enemy deaths makes it clear that the sniper must be sociopathic. Combined with the underlying knowledge that the line soldier does unnecessary violence in carrying out a mission compared to the force used by the sniper, it's easy to see how the line soldier can carry an additional load of guilt which becomes sniper hatred.

Unfortunately, the sniper is probably the most delicate instrument for delivering force that the military has. In Iraq, the US. Army has delivered something like 250,000 rounds down range for every claimed insurgent killed. The motto of the U.S. Army sniper is "one shot, one kill". They would have to be off by more than five orders of magnitude to reach the level of overshoot used in Iraq.

Wouldn't we be better off if, when making war, we tried to do it with as little wasted force as possible?

[Edited 2008.12.16 21:35 PST: fixed several spelling errors]

There's more...

Breaking: President Bush has Shoes Thrown at Him During News Conference

“This is a farewell kiss, you dog.”

The President was uninjured. He joked “All I can report is it is a size 10.”

Huffington Post

An Iraqi television journalist hurled two shoes at President Bush on Sunday during a joint news conference Bush was holding with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki to mark the signing of a U.S.-Iraq security agreement.

Bush had just finished his prepared remarks in which he said the security agreement was made possible by the U.S. surge of troops earlier this year, whhen the journalist, Muthathar al Zaidi pulled his shoes off and hurled them at the president. "This is a goodbye kiss, you dog," Zaidi shouted.

Bush dodged the shoes and was not struck. Bodyguards quickly wrestled Zaidi to the floor and hauled him, kicking and screaming, from the room. Two other Iraqi journalists were briefly detained after one of them called Zaidi's actions "courageous."

"This is the end!" shouted the man, later identified as Muntadar al-Zeidi, a correspondent for Al-Baghdadia television, an Iraqi-owned station based in Cairo, Egypt.

Bush ducked both shoes as they whizzed past his head and landed with a thud against the wall behind him.

The U.S. president visited the Iraqi capital just 37 days before he hands the war off to President-elect Barack Obama, who has pledged to end it. The president wanted to highlight a drop in violence in a nation still riven by ethnic strife and to celebrate a recent U.S.-Iraq security agreement, which calls for U.S. troops to withdraw from Iraq by the end of 2011.

"There is still more work to be done," Bush said after his meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, adding that the agreement puts Iraq on solid footing.

"The war is not over," Bush said, adding that "it is decisively on it's way to being won."

It was at that point the journalist stood up and threw his shoe. Bush ducked, and it narrowly missed his head. The second shoe came quickly, and Bush ducked again while several Iraqis grabbed the man and dragged him to the floor.

In Iraqi culture, throwing shoes at someone is a sign of contempt. Iraqis whacked a statue of Saddam Hussein with their shoes after U.S. marines toppled it to the ground after the 2003 invasion.

Bush brushed off the incident, comparing it political protests at home.

"So what if I guy threw his shoe at me?" he said.

In many ways, the unannounced trip was a victory lap without a clear victory. Nearly 150,000 U.S. troops remain in Iraq fighting a war that is intensely disliked across the globe. More than 4,209 members of the U.S. military have died in the conflict, which has cost U.S. taxpayers $576 billion since it began five years and nine months ago.

Iraq war: $576 billion in admitted costs to date. Not counting future costs such as VA costs for treating PTSD and other long-term health costs. Plus rebuilding Iraq, if we have the stones to own up to our liability.

Plus over 50,000 U.S. wounded, not to mention around one million Iraqi dead and wounded.

But let's not mention them. 'Cause coloreds don't count.

We just gave $700 Billion to bail out Wall Street, but can't afford $25 Billion to save the jobs of American auto workers.

Fuck dead brown people. Who gives a shit?

There's absolutely nothing more dangerous in the world than standing between a frightened white man and the door.

Between a WASP and money...

Between a WASP and oil they know damn well should be theirs.

Warning: As you comment, do NOT make the Secret Service look at this blog. I am not interested in your pushing the limits of free speech here. We all hate the son of a bitch. And he's still the President. Have some respect for the Office, if not for the man.

There's more...

Presidential Debate #1: McCain Curses

Sen. McCain Swears During National Debate, Upset At Obama

Sen. John McCain was triggered back to his hot-headed out-of-control days tonight, cursing twice in front of tens of millions of America citizens whom he was trying to persuade to vote for him.

"HORSESHIT," McCain swore. Seconds later, "Horseshit."

McCain has a reputation for mood swings, for suddenly reverting from 72 years, all the way back fifty years ago to his 20s, when as a Navy pilot, he was wild and out of control.

McCain takes pride in being wild and out of control. Think Tom Cruise as Lt. Pete 'Maverick' Mitchell in Top Gun up against Val Kilmer as Lt. Tom 'Iceman' Kazansky.

(Pay attention now... here is the whole deal.)

• Losing control IS BEING MAVERICK.
• I AM A POW.
• By definition, a Prisoner of War is NOT IN CONTROL of his own life.
• If McCain ever gives up LOSING CONTROL, he gives up BEING A POW.
• If McCain gives up his story of being a POW, he surrenders who he IS -- or at least who he considers himself to be.
• Attack "Maverick", especially in a massively public setting, e.g.: "You're no 'Maverick' and you never truly have been' and you attack McCain at the very core of who he IS. You are likely to not only break him, but for him to lose it big-time -- anger, lashing out -- as he tries to defend who he considers himself to be. He is unlikely to be able to stop himself.
• McCain will reflexively LIE in order to defend Maverick. He will do ANYTHING to defend Maverick. Maverick is essential to the survival of McCain (or so McCain 'knows', deep down in the part of him of which he is unaware and blind.)
  
• Do not worry about breaking him or damaging McCain. Just attack him enough to provoke a heated response. The point is to demonstrate his unfitness for duty: temper, lies, and Noun, Verb, POW.
  

Human beings consist of historical stories we tell which define us -- in a particular body (your own body and its biology), as part of a particular cultural/historical background (the historical background you are part of), and with a particular (specific) set of vocabulary (your own linguistic possibilities, the vocabulary which you have) -- and which give our lives meaning as we live together with other people in communities, societies, and cultures (Asian, African, European, North/South-American cultures, among others.)

BEING A POW is THE defining story of McCain's life.

Take away being a POW, and McCain would be case (and cast) adrift. McCain was always a poor student with no real ability to learn. Accordingly, he lacks any compensating ability to reorient himself around a different story.

Shorter me: McCain can not learn a new version of himself. He is stuck with the unworkable version which sucked hard, even before Vietnam.

Bluntly, had McCain not gone to Vietnam and returned as a POW, he'd be nothing right now. Maybe a car dealership owner in Arizona. His inability to learn and short temper would have stuck him at the short end of failed business lawsuits and ventures. But being a POW had let him off the hook for a multitude of sins. Lucky for McCain he was shot down; it made his career. That, and dumping his first, poor, crippled wife (who loved and had waited for him; and then holding her entire medical future as a gun to her head financially to make goddamn certain she never told tales out of school) for a rich blond beer heiress.

POW is McCain's story, his entire identity, public and private, personally and politically.

McCain will reflexively defend the POW story at any cost.

• LOSING CONTROL is core to BEING A POW.
• One could say, LOSING CONTROL DEFINES being a POW, as clearly to be a POW is to NOT BE IN CONTROL.
• How he survived then is how he and his body know to survive today...
• Abase yourself to people in power
• Demand surrender from others
• Be unpredictable, dangerous, and torment the hell out of people
  

• Therefore, now, 50 years later, McCain sees himself and demands others see him also, as a

1. Maverick,
2. Dangerous
3. Out of control

• McCain is Angry (it is how he survived as a POW; he was angry. Other people had other emotions. McCain was angry.)

• Life is Black and White for McCain. There truly is no difference between one brand of Islam and other. A gook is a raghead is a wetback is a redskin is a girl.
  

• If you're not a white man, who gives a fuck?
  

In short, McCain lives out life now, as it was 50 years ago, over and over again.

Why?

Because it was the defining moment of his life and he survived.

McCain is replaying his survival in every aspect of his life.

Being a POW was central to the story McCain is living out, his survival story. To challenge that story in any significant way -- and by challenge, I mean to make changes to whom McCain is, which is what would happen were McCain to question any of his fundamental assumptions, or to seek out therapy for the obvious damage done to who he is, and for which our Nation clearly owes him for his service -- would be to destroy his own story about himself.

McCain's story about himself, who he considers himself to be (and this is tautological but none-the-less true) would not survive a serious examination of who he considers himself to be, because part of who he considers himself to be IS an unexamined out-of-control maverick who is too dangerous for anyone to ever truly examine closely or suss out.

This is not TRUE.

It is simply the story McCain told himself in the POW camp to survive as a prisoner, to survive torture, and still tells himself today to survive being alive. Including to survive the Bush administration. Being a Senator from Arizona. And having to suck up to everyone to raise the money to stay in power. This story -- because the story clearly has little to do with the facts, just as the story had little to do with the facts when John was a POW -- allows John to survive now and allowed John to survive THEN.

The POW story disconnects WHO HE IS from reality.

Returning full circle...

• McCain will always lose control.
• Losing control (he would say, being unpredictable and dangerous -- "That's right Iceman. I am... dangerous") is CORE to his Maverick identity.
  
• Being a "Maverick" is the identity which anchors his sanity.
• Attacking McCain's Maverick-ness attacks the core of whom he considers himself to be.
• WANT TO WATCH MCCAIN COME APART? Attack "Maverick."
  

McCain's PTSD adaption -- he certainly is not cured or in any way resolved with his PTSD -- has him telling this story of being a Maverick to everyone. To the extent people buy it, or fight it, people are then inside of McCain's prefered frame: Maverick, out of control, dangerous.

Since returning from Vietnam, McCain has used his POW status to keep the framing on Maverick. This lets him off the hook for confronting MEGA-FAIL questions which he can NOT answer such as

• Why have you lost 5 aircraft?
• Why do you so frequently lost your temper?
• Are you too volitile, short-sighted, and quick to rush to attack, to be trusted with National Command Authority strategic assests of any kind?
• Would letting you anywhere near our SIOP be a serious risk to the people of the United States? Should your PTSD permanently disqualify you from ANY position of national authority, till you have received long-term therapy for your obvious anger-management issues?

Gen. Clark put some of these questions to McCain. McCain and his media friends RACED to hide behind POW POW POW. The questions are legitimate.

To this day, the Senator, according to many serving and recently retired Generals and Admirals who have served with him, does not have a stable mood, and is famous for his unpredictability when he sits in for Principles in National Security drills.

The unpredictability of India and Pakastan in C3, that we simply do not know what they will do with their weapons, is an enormous weakness in their system. It does not make them stronger. Unpredictability makes them weaker, as a stronger foe -- us, for example -- while apparently showing more "respect" because of one's unpredicability, in actual fact will be giving MUCH more time to figuring out how to fucking DESTROY you.

One can live with a predictable enemy. An unpredictable enemy must be destroyed completely.

Unpredictability in C3 systems is considered a HUGE failing -- one large enough in the United States to prevent non-elected staffers from receiving high-level security clearance. When it comes to dealing with any aspect of our strategic weapons systems, the United States National Command Authority strives, indeed, demands predictability at all times.

Oops!
Dial-a-Bomb
Boom Chicka Boom
Rejecting Theological Thinking: CJCS Mullen Gets Real With Cheney
Boom Chicka Boom: Cat's in the Cradle
The U.S. Iranian War

This is what you WANT in C3:
He Saved The World (No Cheerleader)

General Clark ate McCain for LUNCH about precisely this issue.
As I wrote June 17, 2008:

Clark on McCain: “Largely Untested and Untried.”

The full article is worth reading.

Huffington Post

"I know he's trying to get traction by seeking to play to what he thinks is his strong suit of national security," Clark said of McCain while speaking from his office in Little Rock, Arkansas. "The truth is that, in national security terms, he's largely untested and untried. He's never been responsible for policy formulation. He's never had leadership in a crisis, or in anything larger than his own element on an aircraft carrier or [in managing] his own congressional staff. It's not clear that this is going to be the strong suit that he thinks it is."

Resume aside, though, Clark also took issue with the Arizona Republican's instincts on national security. "McCain's weakness is that he's always been for the use of force, force and more force. In my experience, the only time to use force is as a last resort. ... When he talks about throwing Russia out of the G8 and makes ditties about bombing Iran, he betrays a disrespect for the office of the presidency."

There's more...

This wasn't a victory on points. It was a clean knock-out. Clark won.

One of the major strategic questions of the Democratic campaign has been how to destroy McCain's image, who people think McCain is, who he claims to be.

General Clark just demonstrated a big piece of the answer. HUGE win.

WIN WIN WIN.

The media took sides.

They already always clearly have a strong opinion about who John McCain is and what he stands for. Their preconceived notions were on display from the start and all the way through the interview. They were an enormous barrier to effective communication.

Like most protracted teenagers, when someone challenges their preconception with a well-thought out, carefully reasoned, well-grounded assessment, THE MEDIA HATE IT. They remind me of high schoolers being told off in painful, public detail by the school's best teacher, the one everyone admires and wants the approval of. That teacher never chews you out in public unless you really screw up, but they don't hesitate to tear apart your work in a way which makes clear you've been skating by. That's what happened here.

Check this carefully....

The media simply couldn't argue the POINT, which Clark made clear without saying word one directly about them to anyone with eyes to see and ears to hear, that they have been lazy goof offs who are brutally biased for McCain, against Obama, and are not doing their damn jobs. Or they would already have reported this obviously well-grounded assessment/interpretation about McCain's national security ability -- “Largely Untested and Untried” -- over which Clark was taking them to school. They couldn't argue the actual point. It was that clear, that obvious, that elegant a takedown. In effect, Clark's hit on McCain took out two targets with one shot. That, my loves, is a fucking pro.

The media -- like high school students being dressed down -- were left:

• instead of dealing with the consequences of what does it mean if “what everyone knows about McCain is a lie?”, which is what I think a reputable journalist would have done. It's sure as hell what I hope I would have done, taken the interview in the direction it was going and see what I learned instead of trying to wrench it around to some pre-determined point of view to support what I thought I knew. Nope...
  

• The media left untouched -- were left stunned by -- General Clark's assessment that McCain on national security is “Largely Untested and Untried.”

• What is there to say about that but, “Well, yeah. Obviously. McCain was a fighter pilot who got shot down.
  

• Then, after he was a POW, after he left the military, he divorced his critically crippled badly disfigured middle-aged wife who had waited for him all those lonely years, left her dependent on him for money for her medical care (to this day so to this day she still dare not speak out against him), left her and married a young blonde rich girl whose Daddy gave McCain a job and then paid for war hero John McCain to become a Congressman and a Senator. This is the beautiful trophy wife McCain then called a **** in front of a bunch of national reporters back in '92 according to The Real McCain by Cliff Schecter. (Link NOT safe for work; headline uses the word.) (And no, we do not use that word on GNB or any variation of the word. It's a FAIL. Don't do it.)
  

• Because McCain's is the kind of temper you want holding the Gold Codes, having access to the Playbook and the Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP) and being able to ask for the Nuclear Football. Oh yeah baby, let's play football!

• Oh yeah, and on the interview? Finally, when none of that other stuff worked, the last thing the media folks did was they tried sucking up to teacher about how if only they had four stars, showing big smiles of TEETH, and reaching over and brushing Clark's shoulders. What... they think a full four-star general has never had people suck up? *snickers*

None of it worked.

Clark was a full grown adult in a room of children.

Clark is genuinely DANGEROUS. He's not pretending to be; he is.

Again, full circle...

McCain said HORSESHIT during the debates -- twice.

No one serious cares about the word.

What matters is McCain lacks enough control to keep from cursing on national television. We all remember the hissy-fit Republican's threw over Ms. Jackson's breast being exposed by accident during the Super Bowl half-time show some years ago.

Yet now, the Republican's candidate for President curses, twice, when children and women are watching? Shameful.

Kennedy/Nixon debates: Nixon was famously assessed on television by the independents as not trustworthy. In this first Obama/McCain debate, McCain will be judged as too angry, and a liar, while Obama will be ruled Presidential.

McCain can not help himself. This IS who he is; he can be no other.

He is unpredictable. Unfortunately for McCain, it totally predictable, that he's an angry old man with poorly resolved PTSD and an incomplete understanding of reality (he was a D student) who will say and do anything to try and win the White House.

That, as McCain says, is HORSESHIT.

Hat Tip DailyKos.

There's more...

McPalin Campaign Playbook: Use the Troops & Lie About Iraq

When McCain took his infamous, "Look How Safe the Bahgdad Markets Are" trip I thought we had scraped bottom. But it seems as if we were not quite there yet. Caribou Barbie called her trip to Iraq and Kuwait life changing-- thing is...

She never went to Iraq. She never crossed the Iraqi Kuwait border.

-from the Obama Campaign;

FACT: Palin Did Not Venture Further Into Iraq Than It's Border With Kuwait

"In The Second Official Revision Of Her Only Trip Outside North America," Palin Aides Concede That Her 2007 Visit To Iraq "Consisted Of A Brief Stop At A Border Crossing."

"Sarah Palin's visit to Iraq in 2007 consisted of a brief stop at a border crossing between Iraq and Kuwait, the vice presidential candidate's campaign said yesterday, in the second official revision of her only trip outside North America. Following her selection last month as John McCain's running mate, aides said Palin had traveled to Ireland, Germany, Kuwait, and Iraq to meet with members of the Alaska National Guard. During that trip she was said to have visited a 'military outpost' inside Iraq.

The campaign has since repeated that Palin's foreign travel included an excursion into the Iraq battle zone. But in response to queries about the details of her trip, campaign aides and National Guard officials in Alaska said by telephone yesterday that she did not venture beyond the Kuwait-Iraq border when she visited Khabari Alawazem Crossing, also known as 'K-Crossing,' on July 25, 2007…It was the second such clarification in as many weeks of the itinerary of what Palin has called 'the trip of a lifetime.' Earlier, the campaign acknowledged that Palin made only a refueling stop in Ireland." [Boston Globe, 9/13/08]

This trip, that she has repeatedly lied about, was her one journey beyond the Americas.

The Double Talk Express is as true as;

No Child Left Behind
WMDs
Yellow Cake
Clean Skies
Healthy Forests
(add your own favorite here)

McPalin are asking the American voters to grant them 4 more years of lies, lies and more lies.

These are not exaggerations, or hyperbole. They are lies. And they think we are stupid enough to believe them.

There's more...

The Maliki-Obama Agreement

Maliki has made a statement on Obama's plan for withdrawal.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki told a German magazine he supported prospective U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama's proposal that U.S. troops should leave Iraq within 16 months.

In an interview with Der Spiegel released on Saturday, Maliki said he wanted U.S. troops to withdraw from Iraq as soon as possible.

"U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama talks about 16 months. That, we think, would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes."Reuters.com

I think we have an agreement to end this war. What's the date today?

There's more...

Moqtada al-Sadr Calls for new Offensive against U.S. Forces

BAGHDAD, June 13 -- The Bush administration's Iraq policy suffered two major setbacks Friday when Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki publicly rejected key U.S. terms for an ongoing military presence and anti-American Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr called for a new militia offensive against U.S. forces. --WashingtonPost.com

Rut ro raggy...

There's more...

Fighting in Sadr City Ending?

In a move the should curtail violence within rocket range of the Green Zone, Moqtada al Sadr's people have agreed to allow Iraqi troops into Sadr City. Provided they no longer arrest members of the Mahdi army without warrents. The deal hinges on heavy weapons. Maliki's troops are to restrict themselves to searching for heavy weapons (Rocket Launchers, Mortars, and Artillery, etc.)

It also would be a startling turnaround in fortunes for Maliki, who'd been widely criticized for picking a fight with Sadr's forces, first in the southern port city of Basra and then in Sadr City.

Members of Maliki's Dawa Party and the powerful Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq met with Sadr officials on Thursday and Friday to come up with a 14-point agreement to end the weeks of fighting, which has hindered the flow of food and water into Sadr City. The agreement was then passed to Sadr and Maliki for final approval, said Baha al Araji, a Sadrist legislator.

Hundreds of people have been killed and hundreds have been wounded in the fighting, which included frequent U.S. airstrikes. At least 8,500 people have been driven from their homes, and thousands of others have been forced to stay inside, too frightened to flee.

A government supporter said the Sadrists were brought to the table by the anger of Sadr City residents. On Thursday, the Iraqi military ordered Sadr City residents to evacuate in apparent preparation for a major offensive push.

"It is not the government who pressured the Sadrists into entering this agreement," said Ali al Adeeb, a leading member of the Dawa party. "It is the pressure from the people inside Sadr City and from their own people that will make them act more responsibly. -- McClatchyDC

Once more it's Sadr that has made a deal. Once more he shows he is control of the game.

Can we go home now?

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Mercenaries to Train Iraqi Local Forces

U.S. Seeks Contractors To Train Iraqi Military- the Washington Post.

"There is a lot of pressure on the active Army, and during this transition period where the military is converting to noncombat roles, a shift to contractors as trainers for the expanding Iraqi military is a natural step." He added, however, that the outcome "depends on the quality of those the contractors recruit."- Anthony H. Cordesman, a former Pentagon official

The quality of the contractors? yeah, right. This is just great. I wonder how well this will be received by the local civilians, and insurgents? I am sure there will be dancing in the streets...(not)

Does anyone else see this as the next step in the KBR/Blackwater/Halliburton plan to become the GOP's standing army?

There's more...

Iraq, The New Palestine

BAGHDAD — The ugly daily fight for ground in the poor Shiite neighborhood of Sadr City unfolded Saturday at a small mosque next door to a hospital, damaging the hospital and a number of its ambulances, and near a group of children who were injured by the violence as they gathered tin cans to sell for salvage.

The missiles that hit close to the Sadr General Hospital were American. After a night of clashes in the neighborhood, the Americans fired at least three “precision-guided munitions” at the small building next door to the hospital. Neighbors said the building was used as a place of prayer for pilgrims, hospital employees and neighborhood residents, but the military identified it as a command center for the Shiite militias it is battling.

Twenty-eight people were wounded in the strikes on the building and surrounding area, said Abdul Hussain Qassim, a hospital official. -- NYTimes.com

Iraq is the new Palestine and America is the new Israel. 100 years in Iraq is right. Unless we leave, we will never get out.

There's more...

Counter Insurgency vs. The Surge

Phillip Carter's blog "Intel Dump" over that the Wapo (go figure!). Has a post about how this current tightening of the belt for the military in Iraq. By having to keep up the levels of the surge, Bush in another pointless presser about how he is working hard on Iraq told the press corp he was authorizing reducing the combat tour lengths to 7 months. Short tours are against COIN doctrine and the short tours in 'Nam were well known problem. Here is some of what Phil had to say:

Counterinsurgency requires detailed knowledge of the human, geographic, political and social terrain, and it takes time to acquire that knowledge. I'd say it became effective around the fifth or sixth month of my tour as a police adviser in Iraq. Arguably, advisers, commanders and troops operating outside the wire should serve longer tours in order to develop and cement their relationships, and capitalize on them.

But they can't -- there's a finite limit to the amount of combat that men and women can endure. So we must balance combat effectiveness, and the needs of an all-volunteer force (and its families), against the steep learning curve of counterinsurgency, which demands longer deployments. -- Intel Dump

Even when these guys eak out some minor, miniscule, tiny advantage they immediately think up some way to screw things up.

It's a real dilemma, and I'm not sure how to solve it without drastically increasing the size of the military or sharply curtailing the deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan. -- Phil Carter, Intel Dump.

Keep dreaming Phil you crazy diamond!

Oh, and the body count is back up to almost 2 a day again. Booyah!

There's more...

Top Aide to Al-Sadr Assassinated in Iraq

Gunmen assassinated a top aide of anti-American leader Muqtada al-Sadr on Friday, sharpening a Shiite power struggle that has already triggered fighting between the cleric's followers and the U.S.-backed Iraqi government.

Riyadh al-Nouri, director of al-Sadr's office in Najaf, was gunned down by an unknown number assailants near his home after returning from prayer services, police and Sadrist officials said.

Al-Sadr blamed the Americans and their Iraqi allies for the killing but called for calm — presumably to avoid a showdown at a time his Mahdi Army militia is under pressure by Iraqi and U.S.-led forces in Baghdad and southern Iraq. -- AP

One of these times the Sunni are going to screw around and kill al Sadr, who will call for calm then? We are lucky no other lunatic fundamentalist has popped up to try and fill the role al Sadr seems reluctant to fill, that of aggressive holy warrior with a 50,000 man milita.

UPDATE: Wengler in comments, makes a good point. This article is poorly written. al-Sadr doesn't need to avoid a showdown with anyone in the south. They need to avoid one with him. He kicked their ass in the last attempt and presumably would do so again.

There's more...

Children and Others Dying in Iraq Recently

Babies and children reported as killed by U.S. Troops. Hilla, Iraq.
photo found at Gorilla's Guides, March 27, 2008.

How Many Dead Babies Does It Take
To Make Us Quit Killing Them?

Want to know what's REALLY happening in Iraq?

Read Gorilla's Guide. Read Iraq Today.

Hold on to your stomach...and your heart.

Oh... one more note.

I am copying over almost five full days directly over from Gorilla's Guide. This isn't how one normally does these things. In case anyone isn't clear, I have enormous respect for Gorilla's Guide, and for copyright law. (Go read the Gorilla’s Guides For The Perplexed. Their reference articles on Islam, and their briefings on what the frack is going on will blow you away. That's in addition to their daily journalism, to which I am introducing you here.)

Copyright law depends on a balancing test. Among other factors, it requires a transformative effect or usage. If after having been stuck inside of the U.S. media machine (including progressive blogs) you are not transformed out the ass by reading THIS, almost five days of THIS, I urge you to keep reading it till you are. Seriously. (And yes, I know that's almost certainly not what was meant when the law was written. Besides, black-letter law doesn't say “transformative”; it's case-law which does. It was just too good a line to pass up. *smiles*) None the less I am serious in my intent, which is causing a transformation for each of us. And there, GNB Media is allowed to copy the material to facilitate teaching, especially considering the other parts of the traditional four-pronged balancing test.

Consider this a transformative introduction, a genuine education in the amazing breadth and range of non-U.S. sources of journalism. But today isn't only about getting outside of U.S. journalism. I intend to cause a shift in you, you, and you, the lurker over in the corner, such that all of you are left having deeply confronted what I've been confronting, what I keep demanding of myself that I confront over and over again, every couple of weeks...

We are killing children.

Look at that photo. LOOK.

Some nice young man -- the “troops” -- followed orders, and dropped a bomb right into the middle of a crowded housing project or neighborhood.

• Brooklyn.
• Manhattan.
• Houston.
• Detroit.
• San Francisco.
• Little Rock.
• Tucson.
• Los Angeles.
• Chicago.
• Kansas City.
• St. Louis.
• Seattle.
• Miami.
• Portland.
• Atlanta.
• San Diego.
• Tulsa.
• Boston.
• Dallas.
• Salt Lake City.
• Denver.
• Sacramento.
• Reno.
• New Orleans.
• Nashville.
• Palm Beach.
• Or even Hot Springs, Arkansas.

Wait... I said too many places and the horror went away... poof, that fast.

Look at the photo again please.

This happens daily. Nice young men in uniform kill children, kill babies.

Here are the last five days in Iraq, partially represented from one website. All I'm posting up is one photograph. You're not watching the video, not having to listen to the families morn, listen or watch the little ones scream in pain, not seeing the few doctors remaining work frantically to try and keep the kids alive, failing.

As you read through this, please imagine this happening to your family, your children, your brothers and sisters, your mother and father, your aunts and uncles, your best friends, the people you work with if only they weren't all out of work because your office or factory is destroyed, plus it's too dangerous to get to work. Imagine please, it is your family dying, fighting to eat, struggling to stay alive as bombs, missiles and guns go off.

Here are five days in Iraq (one-website, one photo, no sound.)

*breathe*

Gorilla's Guide

March 27

Baghdad:

By midday March 26th 2008 - hospitals in Baghdad reported civilians casualties from the American attacks on Sadr city as 20 dead 239 wounded. Mostly women and children. Such as the boy you see to the left. Many of the wounded are not expected to survive.

The Americans continue to prevent both doctors and ambulances from entering Sadr city.

They are also preventing ambulances from leaving the city.

Normally very reliable sources say the Americans have fired on ambulances and other vehicles trying to take wounded out of the city.

Two Soldiers from the American army still trying to subjugate Irak were killed in Baghdad.

Missile attacks on the green zone wounded 3 or 5 Americans depending on who you believe.

Mortar attacks in Nle and al-Resala killed 7 and wounded 23.

The green zone also is being shelled.

In Karrada 4 were killed and 5 wounded by mortar attacks. Another person was killed by shooting, 5 were wounded in that shooting attack.

UPDATE: Karrada is under curfew and there are very heavy forces to try to stop people attacking it and the homes of the SIIC leadership there.

UPdate: At least 2 further people were killed in ongoing American attacks on Sadr city this afternoon evening reports of wounded vary the minimum number is 8.

There are massive demonstations throughout Baghdad against the Americans and the puppet government in the green zone.

There has been major incidents of violence in the following districts - al-Amil, Fudhailiya, al-Hurriyah, Iskhan, Kamiliya, Mashtal, al-Rustumiyah Sadr, City, al Shula, al-Shurta, Ur, Washash. Many incidents in rest of Baghdad and outlyingh areas also.

UPDATE The Americans and the Badr brigade are trying to stop people getting into or out of Khazimiyah.

Sources: Radio reports & Team members.

Gunmen attacked the home of the commander of logistics for GZG forces and burnt it to the ground, the report says the family were rescued by GZG special forces.

The Guardian is reporting that a British SAS soldier was killed in Baghdad.

In a show of force Mahdi army fighters in the “New Baghdad” area completely cut off the main highway and main roads. Our member who live in area says that this was done as a warning of what they would do if attacked.

UPDATE There is fighting in al-Shula Mahdi army fighters stormed the GZG checkpoint controlling access to the district forcing the GZG “elite” troops and police to flee. The American outpost there is under attack.

UPDATE: GZG spokesmen in Baghdad say that 66 GZG troops and five gzg officers have been killed so far.

UPDATE: The American base in . al-Rustumiyah (SothEast Baghdad) is coming under repeated attack.

UPDATE Local sources confirm Aswat al Irak fighting throughout ALL northest Baghdad. UPDATE 2 Locals confirmed several GZG vehicles seized and set alight. Figfting described by them as “intensifying” contradicting Aswat al Iraks report that heavy American air presence calmed the situation down..

UPDATE Sources in al-Shula say that many police stations and checkpoints have been stormed an overrun we do not have reports of police survivors.

UPDATE GZG is trying to impose curfews they appear to have little success in this.

UPDATE GZG Baghdad spokesman saying 19 dead and 307 wounded.

Babil Governorate:

More than 60 people allegedly all armed were killed in the American aerial bombardment of Al-Askari and Nader in central Hilla but there is a problem:

The problem is that it is a lie. It a STUPID lie. It’s the sort of STUPID LIE that only an American military spokesman would tell.

Were you stupid enough to believe anything the Americans are saying about them knowingly killing women and children?

The attack was by Apache aircraft on al-Askari, Ahmed Nader and Muhaizem neighbourhoods.

Gunmen like the children in the screen grab with caption from the Sadrist site nahrainet [that you see at the top of this post -- Jesse.]

Al Askari, Ahmed Nader, and Muhaizem are all heavily populated areas.

It is physically impossible to heavily bombard a densely populated civilian area without killing a lot civilians.

The Americans killed a lot of civilians.

Civilians like the women and children you see to the left. The caption incidentally cites “dozens” of dead women and children.

Eyewitness accounts speak of seeing 25 bodies, including many women and children. They also talk of 35 people being evacauted as seriously wounded and that again many if not most of these were women and children. Two doctors in the local hospital who refused to be identified said to one of our local correspondents that many of these were expected to die.

According to local people the scale of destruction is enormous, they speak of families being wiped out, there are reports of 6 houses turned to rubble, many other houses rendered uninhabitable and of multiple secondary explosions from the fuel tanks in cars.

It is worth noting that an American base is nearby. It is also worth noting that the local police are members of the Badr brigade and that they have repeatedly been reported as committing serious atrocities in the three neighbourhoods which are very deprived even by present day Iraki standards and are overwhelmingly Sadrist.

UPDATE: The GZG governor is trying negotiate with Sadrist leadership in Hilla. Local sources the fighting is as heavy as ever.

And according to the the American spokesman the people killed were 60 gunmen.

March 27 -- evening

Ali Ibn Laith. Born December 14 1999 - Killed March 27 2008

Son of our much missed colleague Laith and his wife, last remaining brother to our greatly loved colleague Mohammed Ibn Laith and his sister.

O God! Pardon our living and our dead, the present and the absent, the young and the old, the males and the females.

There will be no further postings tonight.

[Note:A Child's Death in Iraq -- Jesse]

March 29

Witnesses to the battle for Basra describe scenes in the city

‘I told her she was mother to a martyr’

As fighting between the Shia Mahdi army and the Iraqi national army continued yesterday, witnesses described scenes in the city to Ghaith Abdul-Ahad.

“Yesterday we were in the street and saw a black car coming. They stopped and two men opened the boot. They dragged out an Iraqi soldier and threw him in the street and they drove away.”

“He was a young soldier dressed in a military uniform, he had a bullet hole in his head and there was blood on his face - even his boots were covered with blood.

“We found his ID card, his name was Ahmad Raad al-Helfy. We went through his mobile phone and found a number marked “mum”, we dialled and an old women answered. I told her that her son had died and that she was the mother of a martyr; she started screaming and wailing.”

Said Abu Saleh, 30

“The situation is very difficult in Basra, all the side streets are controlled by the Mahdi army. Even if the army has lots of tanks, the Mahdi fighters are controlling the streets. The fighters are driving in captured Iraqi Humvees and waving new guns.”

Resident of Hayyaniya, a stronghold of the Mahdi army

“Our fighters are being targeted not by the Iraqi government but by government militias working for Moqtada al-Sadr’s rivals in the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council. They are a executing a very well-drawn plan. They are trying to exterminate the Sadrists and cut and isolate the movement before the September local elections. The Sadrists are the only Shia resistance movement against the occupiers [Americans] and we have wide popularity.

“We are going through a battle of existence. We will fight to the end; we either survive this or we are finished.

“We have captured lots of their vehicles, machine guns and mortars. We have new rocket-propelled grenades we got from their supply trucks. Our fighters know how to use the side streets as their battle space.”

Sheikh Ali al-Sauidi, a senior commander in the Mahdi army speaking in a telephone interview

Source: Witnesses to the battle for Basra describe scenes in the city | World news | The Guardian

See also: We’re fighting for survival, says Mahdi army commander for a fuller account.

March 30

British and US forces drawn into battle for Basra - Middle East, World - The Independent

So far Mr Sadr has not formally ended his ceasefire, declared in August last year and renewed in February. Ever since he fought the US marines in two battles in Najaf in 2004, he has been averse to direct military confrontation with the Americans or his Shia rivals when backed by the US. But as Mr Maliki’s military offensive falters, his commanders are increasingly looking to the US and Britain for support. If US and British forces engage in direct military action on a wide scale with the Sadrist militia, then Mr Sadr could call for a general uprising, which would engulf all of Shia Iraq in war. The Mehdi Army already controls half of Baghdad.

Read in full: British and US forces drawn into battle for Basra - Middle East, World - The Independent

More March 30

Police refuse to support Iraqi PM’s attacks on Mehdi Army - The Independent

US and British forces are increasingly playing a supporting role in the Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s stalled offensive against the Mehdi Army militia. American aircraft launched air strikes in Basra yesterday and fought militiamen on the streets in Baghdad while British advisers have also been assisting Iraqi troops in Basra.

Mr Maliki retreated from his demand that militiamen hand over their weapons by yesterday and extended the deadline to 8 April. This is a tacit admission that the Iraqi army and police have failed to oust the Mehdi Army from any of its strongholds in the capital and in southern Iraq. The Iraqi army has either met stubborn resistance from Mehdi Army fighters or soldiers and police have refused to fight or changed sides. “We did not expect the fight to be this intense,” said the officer from a 300-strong commando unit that has been pinned down in the Tamimiyah district in Basra, where the supporters of Muqtada al-Sadr, the leader of the Mehdi Army, have strong support.

The officer said four of his men were killed and 15 wounded in the fighting. “Some of the men told me that they did not want to go back to the fight until they have better support and more protection,” he added. The Interior Ministry threatened that the men would be court-martialled for refusing to fight. Government troops arriving in Basra complain that they are being fired on by local police loyal to Mr Sadr. Members of one police unit had fist fights with their officers after they refused to join the battle.

Continue reading ‘Police refuse to support Iraqi PM’s attacks on Mehdi Army - The Independent’

Basrah "surge" update March 29 2008 - March 30 2008

Overview Basrah:

There is extremely intense fighting still going on in Basrah. After a relatively calm morning - 8 people killed and 7 were wounded in an airstrike by the Americans on al-Tak in al-Hussein, an area the GZG said on Friday they had control of - GZG troops assisted by Badr militia and British artillery made efforts to dislodge Mahdi army fighters from their positions. These appear to have failed according to local reports the Mahdi army seem to have withdrawn to prepared defensive positions. The GZG “defence” minister says they cleared Mahdi army fighters from Al-Ashar, Tanouma, Shatt Al-Arab, al-Zubair. The efforts by GZG forces to recapture the bridge at Qurnah also are reported to have failed. This means that the GZG attemts to reinforce are not working which perhaps explains his comment that they were surprised by the weaponry being used by Mahdi army fighters and therefore are bringing up heavier weaponry to try to dislodge the Mahdi army. He and other spokesmen are saying that GZG forces will fight on until they have “cleared Basrah of criminal elements”. Maliki has gone as far as to say that the JAM are “worse than al Qaeda”.

Residents in al Taminmiyah say that GZG forces are making announcements demanding they leave their homes and that afraid of being caught up in an assault many have complied. Other residents report that GZG troops attempted an incursion and are now trapped there are similar reports from Zubair and al-Ashar. There are widespread reports of defections by GZG police and army to the Mahdi army. Mahdi army has also allowed journalists to speak to captured GZG police and army soldiers.

A bombing raid on Sunday night by the Americans seriously wounded 7 people and cause the collapse of two houses. UPDATE: 10 killed 7 wouned

Overview Baghdad:

Political:

In his interview with al-Jazeera al-Sadr made the following key points:

• He would never accept the American occupation of Irak.
• Politics and religion are inseparable this does not mean that the Sadrists are a political party - they will never be that.
• The role of the clergy is to observe and advise the government.
• That all Irakis Sunni and Shia alike should resist the American attempts to occupy Irak.
• That he had rejected and denounced sectarian killings repeatedly.
• That sectarian (and ethnic) killing would always take place for as long as the Americans were in Irak.
• That he personally had told Iranian supreme leader Khamenei that Iranian interference in Irak would not be tolerated.
• That the struggle in Irak was both political and sectarian that it was political at government level and sectarian and street level.
• That at the political level Sadrist representatives in the GZG “parliament” routinely voted with the “Sunni” parties.

UPDATE AL-Sadr has explicitly told his supporters not to give their weapons to GZG forces that they may only give their weapons to a government that expels the Americans.

UPDATE The GZG have sent a delegation to Najaf to negotiate with the Sadrists.

Hospitals in Sadr city said that by noon Friday, 39 people were killed and 389 others injured since the outbreak of fighting and airstrikes on Sadr City. By noon Saturday the casualty levels had gone up to 75 dead and 500 wounded. GZG Health ministry officials update that figure on Sunday morning to 125 dead and 892 wounded.

The spokesman for GZG Baghdad Operations Command finally got around to admitting that the “surge” spokesman has been kidnapped - he was responding to questions about the tape released of him pleading with Maliki to end the current operation.

Fighting broke out after midnight in Abu D’sheer.

The curfew has been tightened and extended indefinitely.

Other Governorates

Fighting continues in Karbala. (Local GZG security forces deny this saying that what is happening is a series of raids.) There is sporadic fighting. The Dawa party HQ in al Salam was attacked by fighters using RPGs. Fighting also continues in Diwaniyah.

Site News: Many of us are running low on fuel for our generators. This means very light or no posting from Monday. The subscribers edition will continue to be produced as normal.

March 31

The big news is the al-Sadr’s “Stand Down” —more accurately termed Maliki’s “climb down” follow this link or click the image below to see the original text of al-Sadr’s declaration. There will be plenty of statements and counter statements and a lot of misinformation especially in the Western media and the pro-government Iraki media. This is my “take” on the matter.

Text of the declaration:

Based upon our responsibilities under the law [shariah] and for the sparing of Iraki blood and for the protection of the reputability of the Iraqi people, and for their unity both in terms of people and in terms of territory, and in preparation for its independence and liberation from the armies of oppression; and in order to put out the fires of fitna which the occupier and his followers wish to keep burning between Iraki brothers, we call upon the beloved Iraki people to measure up to their responsibility and their cognisance of law in sparing bloodshed and preserving peace in Irak, and its stability and independence.

The following is resolved:

1. Ending armed manifestations in Basra governorate and all the other governorates.
2. Ending of attacks and illegal arbitrary detentions.
3. Demand that the government apply the law on general amnesty, and release all prisoners who have not had charges confirmed against them, in particular prisoners belonging to the Sadrist current.
4. We announce that we will repudiate those who carry weapons and target the government and service agencies and institutions, or the offices of political parties.
5. Cooperation with government agencies to bring about security and to charge criminals, according to due process of law.
6. We reassert that the Sadrist movement does not possess heavy weapons.
7. Efforts [meaningful efforts are to be made] for the return to their residential areas of those who were forced out as a result of security incidents.
8. We demand respect for human rights by the government in all of its security activities.
9. Working [meaningful efforts are to be made] towards the realisation of development and service projects in all governorates.

The first thing that must be said is that these are exactly the same demands that al-Sadr has been making for months. He reiterated them again when the fighting started. Maliki has been forced to accept every single one of them. I wonder how he managed to delude himself that the spectacularly misnamed “Saulat al-Forsan” (Charge of the Knights) would succeed.

Basrah is the country’s economic lung and the Mahdi army, the Badr Brigade, and Virtue (Fadhila) party all have a heavily armed presence there. Politically it is arguable whether it is the Virtue party or the Sadrists who are likely to do best in the forthcoming elections both are likely to do very well indeed, the SIIC is unlikely to do well, they will be lucky if the retain and significant presence.

The Mahdi Army was well-prepared:

The Mahdi army took the lessons of recent events to heart. Since the fighting in Karbala followed by further recent operations to reduce if not eliminate, their presence the Mahdi army have been digging in and preparing a defense in depth in Basrah. They plainly also planned to interdict the arrival of reinforcements for GZG troops once the fighting which everyone could see was coming got underway. They succeeded in their goals:

• They successfully prevented attempt after attempt after attempt to retake the Qurnah bridge.
• Far from being dislodged from their strongholds they successfully carried out a very difficult military operation — a tactical retreat under heavy fire to ready prepared defensive positions.
• They successfully counter-attacked repeatedly.

During several of those counter-attacks they captured and/or destroyed heavy weaponry from GZG forces they also on several occasions cut off and then destroyed attacking forces.

We can now confirm that in regard to al Taminmiyah the reports from residents in this earlier posting “Other residents report that GZG troops attempted an incursion and are now trapped there are similar reports from Zubair and al-Ashar“turns out to have been no more than the truth and that the same is true of Zubair and al-Ashar.

The GZG defense minister admitted that his forces were unprepared either for the ferocity with which the Mahdi army fought or for the sophistication of much of their weaponry. Nor were they prepared for the combination of a simple refusal to fight by many of the soldiers coupled with wholesale defections.

That was not all they were unprepared for. The South erupted. That is a dramatic way of saying that the Mahdi Army successfully opened a number of new fronts in the fighting, Nasiriya, Karbala, Hilla, Diwaniyah, and Kut all saw very fierce fighting. Apart from the benefit to its fighters in Basrah there was the added benefit of reducing the pressure on its fighters in Karbala. They successfully seized Kut - they remain in control of that city for the moment, and in Nasiriyah, Dawa’s heartland, they not only seized ground they laid siege to the governor in his palace and the large number of GZG troops who were protecting him. Every time those troops tried to effect a breakout they were easily beaten back. Desperate negotiations ensued before the final Mahdi army assault, and the governor remains alive, and under siege, - for now.

As to what happens next on these secondary fronts it is hard to tell. My guess, and it is no more than an educated guess, is that the Mahdi army will gradually cede partial control of Kut and the other cities once the local GZG authorities demonstrate good faith. The problem of course lies in those two words “good faith” - at no point have Dawa and SIIC ever done so and I find it difficult to believe GZG officials loyal to those parties will do so now. I hope to be proved wrong in this but I am not optimistic. The fact that operations by GZG forces are continuing in several places including in Basrah makes me even less optimistic.

Let us get back to what we know instead of guesswork. It is clear that the GZG was also unprepared for the ferocity of the fight back in Baghdad. The Mahdi army not only were not dislodged they succeeded in gaining territory and will not lightly give it up. A measure of how desperate the situation was the GZG in Baghdad can be found in the fact that they had to massively reinforce Karrada and prevent all access to Kazhimiya. They had to get the Americans to help them besiege Sadr city. They lost badly in al-Shula. Baghdad did not see the wholesale defections of Basrah but there were enough of them including among elite units - army and police, to make the GZG military leadership very doubtful of their men.

Another measure of GZG desperation is that they used peshmerga forces in Basrah (and in Baghdad). I find it hard to find the words to describe how thoroughly hated the Peshmerga regiments have made themselves in the central and southern governorates. They see themselves as entitled to exact every piece of revenge they possibly can at every possible opportunity and do so. This may be understandable but it is very bad tactics.

What happens next? I do not know. But on past performance we can expect a lot of chest thumping from the GZG and from the Americans. We can also expect a lot of “incidents” of varying severity from the GZG side - probing attacks in other words.

What of Maliki - the man whose arrogance and disastrous lack of judgement has drastically weakened the GZG. What will happen to him?

Who cares …

Saba Ali Ihsaan,
Baghdad,
Irak

Fuck war.

Killing is wrong.

There's more...

A Child's Death in Iraq

It's so, so time to leave.

I don't know how anyone can read this and argue for anything, except that it is time to leave. I truly don't.

Episcopalians for Global Reconciliation

"My brother is dead ... and I helped kill him" -- by the Rev. Mike Kinman

Midday yesterday, this email popped into my inbox.

Mike,

Mohammed's brother Ali died of his wounds today courtesy of shrapnel and flames caused by US missile strike.

He was 9.

Don't expect to hear anything from Mohammed until 40 day of the mourning period is over. XXX* says US soldiers shot at Mohammed as he approached a roadblock they had set up and that he was carrying Ali in his arms trying to get to hospital. He also says that Ali was very badly burned and died screaming.

*Co-worker of Mohammed's, name removed for securityreasons

The words cut through my heart to read. Not because they should have been surprising ... although maybe because I had been living in denial of how predictable they were. But mostly because the friend who sent me this email was telling me my brother was dead, and he died in my other brother's arms -- my brother, Mohammed, who was experiencing pain I could not even imagine ... and not for the first time.

The words cut through my heart to read because I knew.

My brother is dead ... and I helped kill him.

A little background for the perplexed...

I first "met" Mohammed a little more than a year ago. Looking for information about what was really happening on the ground in Irak, I found this website set up by an Irish former UN Peacekeeper who spends a great deal of time there. They set up people on the ground in Irak with laptops and digital cameras to document what is really happening there.

I read this post by Mohammed and was immediately struck by his eloquence and the power of his writing. I quoted it in a sermon I preached the next Sunday and then posted on my blog. Through the wonders of Google alerts, Mohammed found my sermon and commented on it, which started a conversations of posts and comments between us.

I learned that Mohammed was 16 years old, that he worked not just for Gorilla's Guides but also doing things like delivering food to people in refugee camps. I also learned that I couldn't know his real name or any other details that might identify him because their lives were in danger if they were identified as being Gorilla's Guides bloggers.

I learned that Mohammed hated America because America had invaded and occupied his country and killed his people. At the same time, he was willing and even eager to be in conversation with me because of his respect for whom he refers to as the Prophet Jesus (Praise Be Unto Him) and his teachings. That my Christian faith and priesthood and his submission to Islam were a common ground for conversation. So we made plans to begin an online conversation on a private, secure channel.

But before we could begin, I got this email:

Most of Mohammed's remaining family killed in Arbaeen massacres.
Father killed on Tuesday. Mother died of wounds incurred same attack yesterday. Little brother wounded same attack but now released from hospital. One other sibling in refugee camp uniinjured.

Mohammed now head of family in "nuclear family" sense of expression.

Mohammed and brother on pilgimage

The "little brother" was Ali.

When our conversation began again it was hard going. We started from the relatively safe ground of what we each believed as Muslim and Christian, but the conversation quickly turned to Irak and the U.S. I said I hoped we could become friends. He had serious doubts about that but always assured me that we were brothers. "My brother in humanity," he calls me ... and I call him the same.

The conversation was challenging and convicting. Mohammed continually said things that were and are difficult for me to hear as someone who loves my country and believes deeply in the ideals upon which it was founded and to which I believe our better angels still strongly aspire. At the same time, I was carrying on an email conversation with a former student of mine, Paul, who was an Army Ranger stationed in Irak. Paul is one of those people who represents to me the desire to follow our better angels, someone willing to live sacrificially for what he believes in.

The stories and perspectives I was getting from each of them sometimes converged but more often than not were poles apart.

I cannot even begin to go into what Mohammed has taught me not just about what is going on in Irak, but about Islam ... and about my own Christian faith. Holding his story in tension with Paul's was almost always difficult, but I became convinced that no matter how well intentioned and good-hearted soldiers like Paul were (and Mohammed and I went back and forth on that one!), our presence there must end and it must end totally.

There's more...

Go to the jump. Read the rest of the story.

*sighs*

It's time for A Responsible Plan to end the war. Currently endorsed by 43 candidates -- 39 House and 4 Senate.

Not that I ran this story to plug a political plan. I ran the story because it breaks my heart, and because we're so cut off here, from the other side of the story. Even here, in the heart of the progressive blogosphere, unless we're actively seeking out sites such as Iraq Today (on our blogroll) we're simply not getting what's happening in Iraq, as everything we read is being filtered through the American press.

In the first week we were open, I ran an article with the subhead, Corpse & garbage in the streets of Adhamiya. Nothing has changed, except more dead children and soldiers.

We need to leave.

There's more...

Iraq: A Responsible Plan

A New Contract With America

The Democratic Party candidates (Netroots Caucus) for the U.S. Congress have put together the best plan I've yet seen -- including from any Presidential Candidate -- to end the war in Iraq.

I have not forgotten a family friend died in Iraq last year.

Just over a year a ago, the current Congress was sworn in with our hopes, on a promise to end the war in Iraq.

They have done nothing.

They have enabled the criminal Bush/Cheney administration while more troops and Iraqis have died.

Enough.

http://responsibleplan.com/

Endorsed by:

Darcy Burner candidate for U.S. House, Washington
Donna Edwards candidate for U.S. House, Maryland
Eric Massa candidate for U.S. House, New York
Chellie Pingree candidate for U.S. House, Maine
Tom Perriello candidate for U.S. House, Virginia
Jared Polis candidate for U.S. House, Colorado
George Fearing candidate for U.S. House, Washington
Larry Byrnes candidate for U.S. House, Florida
Steve Harrison candidate for U.S. House, New York
Sam Bennett candidate for U.S. House, Pennsylvania

And by

Major General Paul Eaton (U.S. Army ret.)former Security Transition Commanding General, Iraq
Dr. Lawrence Korbformer Assistant Secretary of Defense in the Reagan Administration
Brigadier General John Johns (U.S. Army ret.)specialist in counterinsurgency and nation-building
Capt. Larry Seaquist (U.S. Navy ret.)former commander of the U.S.S. Iowa and former Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy Planning

Our plan will:

1. End U.S. Military Action in Iraq
2. Use U.S. diplomatic power
3. Address humanitarian concerns
4. Restore our Constitution
5. Restore our military
6. Restore independence to the media
7. Create a new, U.S.-centered energy policy

Read the plan.

Watch the videos.

This is the real deal.

There's more...

Lord Cheney in Baghdad

The Dark Lord arrived in Iraq. The word is that Admiral Fallon has failed him for the last time and that he plans to personally "encourage" the Iraqi leadership. A special room has certainly been set aside for his ministrations on the weak fools who have failed to do his bidding till now.

McCain, Lieberman, Huckleberry Graham and Cheney in Baghdad. What the hell, is it the NeoCon New-Year or something?

But seriously folks. 5 years and we still have to slip in under the cover of darkness. I know Cheney doesn't really have a choice but the President of Iran was able to drive to the green zone. Cheney has to apparate fly in a helicopter. Iraq, Not Safe For Americans.

Reuters -- Vice President Cheney visits Iraq

There's more...