Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Convention Floor Fight?

With the news that Michigan will probably also not hold a re-vote. There is no way to stop this thing. It seems that it will go to the convention floor, unless one of the candidates withdraws. Here is what Chris Bowers had to say:

What is likely is that the Clinton campaign will push for Michigan and Florida to be seated as is, and use the Michigan and Florida delegations to argue that Obama has not yet clinched the nomination. After June 3rd, they will take that argument to the credentials committee, which gains authority over the matter on Jnne 11th. From that point, the credentials committee will probably deny the Clinton's campaign's argument to seat both delegations as is, since Obama will probably control the majority of seats on the committee. The next step will be for the Clinton faction on the committee to file a minority report on the delegations, which will then be referred to the full convention. The full floor vote on the Michigan and Florida delegations will then be a good proxy to determine who will win the nomination on the first ballot.

And that is what the convention fight of 2008 will probably look like. Obama will still probably win, since he leads by 18 delegates even with both Michigan and Florida included, by a much larger amount without either delegation included, and since a significant majority of the undecided Michigan delegates will probably vote for him. -- OpenLeft.com

I don't know if this is good or bad. It has been somewhat beneficial for us to have the news attention so far. Although it has been a huge waste of money. There is already a feeling of ill-will towards the remaining undeclared superdelegates. I could see the GOP going all the way to their convention, but the Democrats are a different breed, I don't know if they have the patience to wait until Denver. I think they would force a solution here.