Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Wisconsin Primary Numbers

In Wisconsin voters got out the vote. Even with depressed Republican turnout they got 40% of all registered voters for a primary election.

Democratic 73.3%
Republican 26.7%

3 out of 4 voters were Democrats... Crikey...

91% Reporting:
Obama    58%
Clinton   42%

Thats a 17+ point ASSKICKING.

Care for some jam?

From Jane at FireDogLake:

According to his tallies, she needs 58% of the remaining pledged delegates just to get the lead. If you concede Mississippi, Wyoming, Montana, Oregon, South Dakota, North Carolina and Vermont to Obama (which is a conservative estimate), she needs 65% of the remaining pledged delegates in order to simply get ahead of him.

Obama, on the other hand, will need 65% of the remaining pledged delegates to hit the magic number of 2025 which will give him the nomination. If you add in all the committed superdelegates, he needs less than 50% of the remaining pledged delegates to hit that total.

Add to that the fact that under many plausible scenarios Obama could be 5% behind in the Texas vote total and still gain more delegates, and it looks pretty hopeless.

UPDATE: The other factor for the Clinton campaign here is oxygen. You have all read the story how CNN cut away from her speech to cover Obama? That is going to happen more and more. We have 13 days until Texas and Ohio. No oxygen, no fire.

Of course she could kick his ass in Hawaii and keep the dream alive. Ya never know.