Showing posts with label skepticism. Show all posts
Showing posts with label skepticism. Show all posts

Monday, January 25, 2010

Consider the Source II

This is the second in what is likely a long ongoing series of posts exhorting readers to evaluate what they read. Here's the first article.

According to NaturalNews.com, Thousands of Americans died from H1N1 even after receiving vaccine shots (free registration required for full article):
(NaturalNews) The CDC is engaged in a very clever, statistically devious spin campaign, and nearly every journalist in the mainstream media has fallen for its ploy. No one has yet reported what I'm about to reveal here.

It all started with the CDC's recent release of new statistics about swine flu fatalities, infection rates and vaccination rates. According to the CDC:

• 61 million Americans were vaccinated against swine flu (about 20% of the U.S. population). The CDC calls this a "success" even though it means 4 out of 5 people rejected the vaccines.

• 55 million people "became ill" from swine flu infections.

• 246,000 Americans were hospitalized due to swine flu infections.

• 11,160 Americans died from the swine flu.

Base on these statistics, the CDC is now desperately urging people to get vaccinated because they claim the pandemic might come back and vaccines are the best defense.

But here's the part you're NOT being told.

The CDC statistics lie by omission. They do not reveal the single most important piece of information about H1N1 vaccines: How many of the people who died from the swine flu had already been vaccinated?

Many who died had already been vaccinated

The CDC is intentionally not tracking how many of the dead were previously vaccinated. They want you (and mainstream media journalists) to mistakenly believe that ZERO deaths occurred in those who were vaccinated. But this is blatantly false. Being vaccinated against H1N1 swine flu offers absolutely no reduction in mortality from swine flu infections. [1]

And that means roughly 20% of the 11,160 Americans who died from the swine flu were probably already vaccinated against swine flu. That comes to around 2,200 deaths in people who were vaccinated! [2]

How do I know that swine flu vaccines don't reduce infection mortality? Because I've looked through all the randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trials that have ever been conducted on H1N1 vaccines. It didn't take me very long, because the number of such clinical trials is ZERO. [3]

That's right: There is not a single shred of evidence in existence today that scientifically supports the myth that H1N1 vaccines reduce mortality from H1N1 infections. The best evidence I can find on vaccines that target seasonal flu indicates a maximum mortality reduction effect of somewhere around 1% of those who are vaccinated. The other 99% have the same mortality rate as people who were not vaccinated. [4]

So let's give the recent H1N1 vaccines the benefit of the doubt and let's imagine that they work just as well as other flu vaccines. That means they would reduce the mortality rate by 1%. So out of the 2,200 deaths that took place in 2009 in people who were already vaccinated, the vaccine potentially may have saved 22 people. [5]

...
Sources for this story include:
CNN
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/HEALTH/...

Washington Post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...

[1] Strong assertions require strong evidence. As we see, there will be no such evidence provided.

[2] Numbers follow from the assertions above, but those assertions are still baseless.

[3] Concluding that there is no effect because he has read no studies (or even because no studies exist) falls under the category of "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence."

[4] Wikipedia summary on effectiveness of flu vaccines. I am not qualified to judge the relative goodness of scientific studies, but I note that this article cites peer-reviewed work from The Journal of Infectious Diseases, Vaccine, JAMA, and The Lancet. Against an unsupported assertion that studies show, at most, a 1% reduction in mortality, I'll take the peer-reviewed journals, or even the New York Times. For example:
In a new study reported at Wednesday’s meeting, Dr. David K. Shay, who led a team from the C.D.C. and eight state health departments, found that full immunization against flu provided about a 75 percent effectiveness rate in preventing hospitalizations from influenza complications in the 2005-6 and 2006-7 influenza seasons. (The 75 percent rate could range, according to a standard statistical measure known as confidence intervals, from 41 percent to 91 percent.)
The assertion of a 1% reduction in mortality is not necessarily orthogonal to a 41-91% reduction in hospitalizations. The claim of 1% (mortality reduction) is intended to say "vaccination is not useful". The claim of 41-91% (hospitalization reduction) would invalidate that.

[5] The math is fine. The assumptions, as listed above, are suspect, at least.

I could go on. The gist of it is that this inflammatory article sets up straw men, assumes a lot (everything, it seems), draws conclusions based upon assertions which appear to be in conflict with peer-reviewed research, asserts intention behind acts of omission or commission, and generally ignores science, statistics, and logic in favor of repetition, unsupported assertion, straw men, passion, inflammatory statements, and righteousness.

I love this quote:
Through its release of misleading statistics, the CDC wants everyone to believe that all of the people who died from H1N1 never received the H1N1 vaccine. That's the implied mythology behind the release of their statistics. And yet they never come right out and say it, do they? They never say, "None of these deaths occurred in patients who had been vaccinated against H1N1."
Of course they don't say that. Nobody in the scientific community would ever claim that vaccination is 100% protection. Vaccination is a way of engaging the immune system, bolstering our natural ability to resist disease. Ideally, vaccination is a way of engaging the immune system of the population, so that the disease does not become epidemic.

Followed up with:
So they just gloss over the point and imply that vaccines offer absolute protection against H1N1 infections. But even the CDC's own scientists know that's complete bunk. Outright quackery. No vaccine is 100% effective. In fact, when it comes to influenza, no vaccine is even 10% effective at reducing mortality. There's not even a vaccine that's 5% effective. And there's never been a single shred of credible scientific information that says a flu vaccine is even 1% effective.
A wonderful straw man argument: they don't claim 100% effectiveness, so it's suspicious that they don't achieve it! Alongside assertions about lack of effectiveness in reducing mortality, ignoring the peer-reviewed evidence that flu vaccines provide a great deal of reduction in hospitalization -- clearly a benefit, and likely indicative of a reduction in mortality (unless everyone who dies of the flu does so outside the hospital).

The hits just keep on coming. Go ahead and read the whole thing, if you must. I'd like to call out one more thing, though. The author proudly notes "Sources for this story include" CNN and the Washington Post. But neither of those articles has anything to say about vaccine effectiveness. The author is counting on you not following those links, but just assuming the authority of CNN and the WaPo to convince you that the views in the article are mainstream.

They're not.

I don't know anything about naturalnews.com -- or at least I didn't until I read this article. Now I know that I'm not particularly interested in what they have to say.

There's more...

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Consider the Source I

This is the first in what is likely a long ongoing series of posts exhorting readers to evaluate what they read.

Today's installment is brought to you courtesy of a weekend martial arts seminar in Spokane, WA. While driving the 1000 mile round trip (only about 20 gallons of gas in the Prius!), Sara and I caught up on our podcasts, especially Thom Hartmann, who mentioned this story in passing:

Nuclear Fueled Explosion Reported In US Midwest
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers
Reports from 3rd Army Headquarters of the Russian Space Command, located in Solnechnogorsk (Moscow oblast), are reporting today that a ‘nuclear fueled’ explosion has occurred in the United States region of Illinois after the downing of an American B-52 Bomber by, presumed, other elements of the US Air Force operating in that region.

So powerful was the explosion reported from this downed American Nuclear Bomber that Western propaganda media sources are reporting the effects of a 5.2 to 5.4 magnitude earthquake in that region, but to which the most accurate description of a nuclear type blast was reported by the Bloomberg News Service and who stated in their article: "You could hear a roaring sound and the whole motel shook, waking up the guests,'' Vibha Ambelal, manager of the Super 8 Motel in Mount Carmel, Illinois, near the epicenter, said in a telephone interview."

Thom mentioned this story with incredulity but noted that people in the rest of the world might actually believe it of us.


I'm presenting this as a simple example of "consider the source". Let's track down the original version of the story if we can...


  1. By Googling "Nuclear Fueled Explosion Reported In US Midwest" "Sorcha Faal".

  2. The first link takes us here. Where there is a link labeled "Nuclear Fueled Explosion Reported In US Midwest" which leads us to... here.
The Original Story:
April 18, 2008
Nuclear Fueled Explosion Reported In US Midwest
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers
Reports from 3rd Army Headquarters of the Russian Space Command, located in Solnechnogorsk (Moscow oblast), are reporting today that a ‘nuclear fueled’ explosion has occurred in the United States region of Illinois after the downing of an American B-52 Bomber by, presumed, other elements of the US Air Force operating in that region.

So powerful was the explosion reported from this downed American Nuclear Bomber that Western propaganda media sources are reporting the effects of a 5.2 to 5.4 magnitude earthquake in that region, but to which the most accurate description of a nuclear type blast was reported by the Bloomberg News Service and who stated in their article: "You could hear a roaring sound and the whole motel shook, waking up the guests,'' Vibha Ambelal, manager of the Super 8 Motel in Mount Carmel, Illinois, near the epicenter, said in a telephone interview."

These reports further state that this was the second attempt by a US B-52 Nuclear Bomber to penetrate the North American Command Air Defenses surrounding the dissident United States Scott Air Force Base, located in Illinois, from which these aircraft seeking to bomb Iranian atomic facilities are based.

On Tuesday, April 15th, American citizens to the Indiana region immediately east of Illinois reported numerous ‘booms’ and ‘flashes’ in their night skies which some attributed to fireball meteorites crashing into the atmosphere, but which the United States Air Force reported was caused by F-16 jet fighters ‘sonic booms’ and their use of ‘military flares’.

And there's more if you choose to read it.

For some, the fact that this material is written down on paper, er, in electrons is enough reason to believe it. Not for us. Let's consider the source. Who exactly is "Sorcha Faal"?:


Finally, let's take a look at her own descriptions of several of her books:
Children of Winter:

Join Sorcha Faal on one of the most incredible journeys of human existence ever written in her just fully translated book, The Children of Winter: Russia to Rule World By 2012.

This is work that transcends politics, evolution, even religion itself and reconnects you with Who we really are, Why we are really here and Where we go when we leave our earthly bodies behind.

Not told by Sorcha herself alone, but by the Children of Winter themselves, who at 6 years of age the weather had no effect upon them as they walked naked in the snows of winter. Who at 10 years of age could walk thorough boiling water with no burns or discomfort of any kind. Who at 15 years of age could travel the vast distances of space in but a single thought. Who at 20 years of age could heal all illness with but a touch of their hand. Who at 30 years of age could literally move mountains by just their thoughts alone.

Battle Begins for Throne of this World: The Return of the Einherjar Warriors:
To the greatest significance, however, of this historic event, and as Sorcha Faal details in her new book, “Battle Begins For Throne of This World: The Return of the Einherjar Warriors”, lies not in the year of the Jeremiah Stone being moved, 1996, but that 2008 marks the year that the “12 Cycles of the Zodiac” have been passed since the moving and which, according to the ancient prophecies, shows that this coming year marks the beginning of the Battle for the Throne of this World.

In this gigantic struggle, soon to overcome all of Earth’s peoples, join Sorcha Faal as she explains in great detail that the ancient mythologies of the Norse, Icelandic, Germanic, and others of the Arctic’s Circumpolar peoples are nothing more than ‘the other side of the coin’ of the ancient writings and prophecies of Hebrews and Christians.


Do we really need to go on? This source is clearly at least suspect. And since "extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof", I think we can probably discount whatever Ms. Faal has to say or write. Not only does she make extraordinary claims without any significant back up, many of the people who are talking about her (as unreliable) have links on their sites to UFO sightings, orgone, The Apocalypse, Insight on Aliens, Chemtrails, and The Zetas. And they seem to take them all just as seriously as they do the publication of "War is a Racket" by Gen. Smedley Butler (which is an actual volume, I have a copy).



You may think that I've put too much effort into pointing out that this obviously bogus story is bogus. This is merely the first example, and thus obvious, and taken step by step so that those out there with less experience can learn to do the work by themselves. Other, less straightforward, examples will follow at irregular intervals. In the meantime, have a laugh or two (or a wince, or a shrug) at the people who do take this kind of story seriously, and pity me for having to wade through their posts so that you don't have to :-).

There's more...