High Risk Strategy

Roger Hardy has some analysis:

The crackdown in Basra is fraught with political significance, writes the BBC Middle East analyst Roger Hardy.

Sadrists are convinced it is an attempt to weaken them ahead of provincial elections due in October - elections they are confident will strengthen their grip on the south.

Mr Maliki has embarked on a highly risky strategy, our analyst notes.

For one thing, it is far from clear that it will succeed.

The Sadrist movement enjoys widespread support, especially among the young and the poor, and is well entrenched in Basra and many other predominantly Shia towns and cities in the south.

For another, if the ceasefire which the Sadrists have largely followed since last summer were to collapse, that would seriously undermine claims by the government - and by the Bush administration in Washington - that Iraq had somehow turned a corner and was moving from civil war to political reconciliation. -- news.bbc.co.uk

I would agree, this one has a real pucker factor. Stay tuned.

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Sadr Ceasefire Over

BAGHDAD (AP) — Iraq's leaders faced their gravest challenge in months Tuesday as Shiite militiamen loyal to anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr battled government forces for control of the southern oil capital, fought U.S. and Iraqi troops in Baghdad and unleashed rockets on the Green Zone.

Armed Mahdi Army militiamen appeared on some Baghdad streets for the first time in more than six months, as al-Sadr's followers announced a nationwide campaign of strikes and demonstrations to protest a government crackdown on their movement. Merchants shuttered their shops in commercial districts in several Baghdad neighborhoods.

U.S. and Iraqi troops backed by helicopters fought Shiite militiamen in Baghdad's Sadr City district after the local office of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Dawa Party came under attack, the U.S. said. Residents of the area reported intermittent explosions and gunfire in the area late Tuesday. -- Associated Press

Oh, yeah. It's over. I can't help but think this is the U.S. promoting a Iraqi civil war. They are actively sending Iraqi troops against the Mahdi army in Basra. Of course Sadr's people in Baghdad will have reprisals, I wouldn't be surprised if we have full scale fighting in Baghdad.

What was it McCain said? We are winning in Iraq, Sorry, that was yesterday Senator. Pay attention.

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Sadr Ceasefire Over?

As usual McClatchy has the scoop.

BAGHDAD — A cease-fire critical to the improved security situation in Iraq appeared to unravel Monday when a militia loyal to radical Shiite Muslim cleric Muqtada al Sadr began shutting down neighborhoods in west Baghdad and issuing demands of the central government.

Simultaneously, in the strategic southern port city of Basra, where Sadr's Mahdi militia is in control, the Iraqi government launched a crackdown -- McClatchyDC

Sounds like Sadr is tired of the lip service he has been getting from the Iraqi government and this "crackdown" in Basra is the straw that broke the camels back. Which was a U.S. forced action. They wanted the Brits to do something about security down there, but they were not interested, so Petraeus made the Iraqis do it. I don't know if Sadr is serious, whether he will let slip his dogs of war or not is unclear, but if I slept in the Green Zone I would sleep with my flak jacket and helmet on. I expect there are going to be quite a few more rocket attacks.

I guess we now know why Dave Petraeus just announced he was leaving the current surge troop levels were they are. He probably figured something like this would happen when he told the Iraqis to start busting heads in Basra.

Going to be a hell of a Spring. Break is over, back to work.

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