Surge-a-riffic!

Whew... Good thing the Iraq war is over and everything is flower petals and glory to Dave Petraeus.

There are still people dying there every day, it's still killing U.S. troops at about 1 a day, its killing Iraqi's (those that are left) at much, much greater numbers.

Why are we still there?

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Moqtada al-Sadr Calls for new Offensive against U.S. Forces

BAGHDAD, June 13 -- The Bush administration's Iraq policy suffered two major setbacks Friday when Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki publicly rejected key U.S. terms for an ongoing military presence and anti-American Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr called for a new militia offensive against U.S. forces. --WashingtonPost.com

Rut ro raggy...

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Fighting in Sadr City Ending?

In a move the should curtail violence within rocket range of the Green Zone, Moqtada al Sadr's people have agreed to allow Iraqi troops into Sadr City. Provided they no longer arrest members of the Mahdi army without warrents. The deal hinges on heavy weapons. Maliki's troops are to restrict themselves to searching for heavy weapons (Rocket Launchers, Mortars, and Artillery, etc.)

It also would be a startling turnaround in fortunes for Maliki, who'd been widely criticized for picking a fight with Sadr's forces, first in the southern port city of Basra and then in Sadr City.

Members of Maliki's Dawa Party and the powerful Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq met with Sadr officials on Thursday and Friday to come up with a 14-point agreement to end the weeks of fighting, which has hindered the flow of food and water into Sadr City. The agreement was then passed to Sadr and Maliki for final approval, said Baha al Araji, a Sadrist legislator.

Hundreds of people have been killed and hundreds have been wounded in the fighting, which included frequent U.S. airstrikes. At least 8,500 people have been driven from their homes, and thousands of others have been forced to stay inside, too frightened to flee.

A government supporter said the Sadrists were brought to the table by the anger of Sadr City residents. On Thursday, the Iraqi military ordered Sadr City residents to evacuate in apparent preparation for a major offensive push.

"It is not the government who pressured the Sadrists into entering this agreement," said Ali al Adeeb, a leading member of the Dawa party. "It is the pressure from the people inside Sadr City and from their own people that will make them act more responsibly. -- McClatchyDC

Once more it's Sadr that has made a deal. Once more he shows he is control of the game.

Can we go home now?

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Top Aide to Al-Sadr Assassinated in Iraq

Gunmen assassinated a top aide of anti-American leader Muqtada al-Sadr on Friday, sharpening a Shiite power struggle that has already triggered fighting between the cleric's followers and the U.S.-backed Iraqi government.

Riyadh al-Nouri, director of al-Sadr's office in Najaf, was gunned down by an unknown number assailants near his home after returning from prayer services, police and Sadrist officials said.

Al-Sadr blamed the Americans and their Iraqi allies for the killing but called for calm — presumably to avoid a showdown at a time his Mahdi Army militia is under pressure by Iraqi and U.S.-led forces in Baghdad and southern Iraq. -- AP

One of these times the Sunni are going to screw around and kill al Sadr, who will call for calm then? We are lucky no other lunatic fundamentalist has popped up to try and fill the role al Sadr seems reluctant to fill, that of aggressive holy warrior with a 50,000 man milita.

UPDATE: Wengler in comments, makes a good point. This article is poorly written. al-Sadr doesn't need to avoid a showdown with anyone in the south. They need to avoid one with him. He kicked their ass in the last attempt and presumably would do so again.

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Grim math shows increase not drop in violence in Iraq

RedDan and I have been talking about the games that CENTCOM and the Whitehouse have been playing with the numbers out of Iraq. I couldn't understand why all the press releases about a drop in violence. Tactically it doesn't work like that. It didn't make any sense. A surge wouldn't decrease the level of violence. So we took a closer look at data.


Here you are seeing the real story. A spike that in the Baghdad area and dropping numbers in the south and Al Anbar. A drop to basically 0. Why is this happening?

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown this week announced his plan to reduce the British force around the southern city of Basra from 5,000 to 2,500 by next spring. Drawing less attention, however, is the extent to which American forces have quietly withdrawn from the rest of southern Iraq. By so doing, the U.S. is ceding huge swaths of territory -- time.com

The Brits are basically holed up in a compound with smaller numbers than reported here. From an initial presence in Iraq of 40,000 down to less than 2 battalions.

The Marines have all been completely removed from Al Anbar into Baghdad, which is why they are asking to be relocated to Afghanistan. Working with and for the Army must have them tripping over each others boots.

No, what we are seeing here is a shell game. The violence is not dropping. Its ending. It's ending wherever we withdraw from and spiking were we are digging in. It only appears to drop because violence in Al Anbar, Basra, Najaf, Karbala, Wasit, Dhiqar, etc, etc, has ended. This drop obscures the spike in Baghdad.


This information shows a trend up in the Baghdad region and shows that Iraq does not devolve into civil war when the US pulls out. Does not let al Qaeda take over in their absence. In fact the complete opposite, the local security forces quickly run to ground AQI and end them. It seems once the US forces leave the area the score settling and inter-tribal violence ends. Life seems cheap with tanks and machine guns on every corner. Remove those visual and physical reminders and people work out their differences with something other than a pistol and a power-drill. So when some tells you we have to stay, ask them why. (numbers via iCasualties.org)

Hubris Sonic & RedDan

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Maps, we got maps

Nice graphic work from the NYTimes.com Interactive folks.

Assessing the ‘Surge’: A Survey of Baghdad Neighborhoods

To study the ground-level effects of the American troop buildup, reporters and video journalists for The New York Times visited Baghdad's neighborhoods, interviewing residents, Americans on patrol and Iraqi officials.

- link -

UPDATE: Doc points us to a related article
At Street Level, Unmet Goals of Troop Buildup

(Also contains a link to the full NY Times interactive map.)

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