Nobel Peace Prize 2007

Photographer: Stephanie Kuykendal/Bloomberg News Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore speaks at George Washington University's Lisner Auditorium in Washington, on May 29, 2007.

Al Gore, U.N. Climate Panel Win Peace Prize

Bloomberg

Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore and a United Nations panel on the environment won this year's Nobel Peace Prize for raising awareness about the threat of climate change.

Gore, 59, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were honored for ``their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about manmade climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change,'' said Ole Danbolt Mjoes, director of the Oslo-based Nobel Committee that picks the winner.

The peace prize tops off a year of accolades for Gore, marking a turnaround that some say makes him ``the comeback kid,'' a moniker typically associated with his former boss, Bill Clinton. The former vice president last year published the book and released the Oscar-winning documentary film ``An Inconvenient Truth'' as part of a campaign against global warming.

India's Rajendra Pachauri, 67, is chairman of the IPCC, which was set up by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Program in 1988. The group has about 2,500 scientists whose mandate is to assess ``scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of climate change.''

``I am deeply honored to receive the Nobel Peace Prize,'' Gore said in an e-mailed statement. ``We face a true planetary emergency. The climate crisis is not a political issue, it is a moral and spiritual challenge to all of humanity.''

The prize is ``a recognition of the contribution of the scientific world,'' Pachauri told reporters today in New Delhi.

Human Cause

The IPCC said in a report in February that the probability that humans are causing global warming is 90 percent, and world temperatures and sea-levels will increase by the end of the century. The Bush administration said the human role in climate change is ``no longer up for debate'' following the report.

``There are already climate wars unfolding and the worst area for that is the Sahel belt in Africa,'' Jan Egeland, head of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, told reporters in Oslo on Sept. 28. ``Nomads fight pastoral farmers because there is less land available, because of long-term climate change.''

``Clearly we are endangering all species on earth, we are endangering the future of the human race,'' Pachauri said in an interview earlier this year. ``We are probably beyond the stage where we could have called it urgent. I would say it is immediate,'' he said, referring to the need for governments to reduce emissions.

Glaciers Melting

Scientists have said global warming caused by manmade emissions is responsible for melting glaciers and ice sheets, and increased instances of storms, droughts and floods. Over this century, those effects may be magnified, according to the February report.

``The consequences of inaction will be devastating to both the environment and the economy,'' Gore told the U.S. Congress at a special climate change hearing this year.

Gore, vice president from 1993 until 2001, drew an audience of an estimated 2 billion people on July 7 with Live Earth, a single day of concerts on seven continents aimed at promoting awareness of what he terms a ``climate crisis.''

The New York Times

Even before Mr. Gore won an Emmy for his so-called “user generated” cable television network, Current, or an Oscar for his film on climate change, “An Inconvenient Truth,” he was growing in stature for another reason: his early opposition to the Iraq war.

He had initially voiced it in 2002 in an address that his newly galvanized supporters now describe as uncannily prescient and unfairly dismissed, though it was seen as a politically off-kilter at a time of great popularity for President George W. Bush.

The awarding of the Nobel Prize to him was certain to further intensify calls for him to enter the Democratic nominating contest for president. The rumors that he would win it had already helped a grassroots movement to draft him into the race raise tens of thousands of dollars for advertisements.

Mr. Gore’s aides, and, on one or two occasions, Mr. Gore himself, have said he is not interested in running for president when his main goal has been raising public awareness of global climate change and man’s role in it. But they have been coy, refusing to absolutely say “no,” and, in the process, giving the various groups now dedicated to drafting him into the race reason to continue their efforts.

Associates of Mr. Gore, however, have said they truly believe he does not want to run but speculate that he does not have reason to tamp down the presidential talk when it serves to keep the focus on him and causes he is pursuing with a perceptibly pure heart — a perception that could change with a presidential run.

“You never say never in politics but I think he’s having such a big impact on the issues that he cares about that if he decided to run for president he would just be viewed in a fundamentally different way,” said Chris Lehane, a former aide and spokesman for Mr. Gore’s 2000 campaign. “Once you become a candidate for president then you have a completely different lens.”

Yet Mr. Gore’s newly charged supporters hope that the Nobel Prize will now cause him to make another attempt to win the prize they believe is rightly his — the White House.

Reuters

The award of the Nobel Peace Prize to Democrat Al Gore on Friday increases pressure on him to launch a late bid for the U.S. presidency, but advisers say he is showing no signs of interest in the 2008 race.

An organization called draftgore.com is one of several trying to persuade Gore to run. The group ran a full-page ad in The New York Times on Wednesday described as "an open letter to Al Gore."

"Many good and caring candidates are contending for the Democratic nomination," the ad said. "But none of them has the combination of experience, vision, standing in the world, and political courage that you would bring to the job."

Once considered a wooden speaker, he now is a pop culture icon, and happily engaged in a life that includes many speaking engagements about climate change, positions on corporate boards and much travel.

'LIGHT BULBS, NOT POLITICS'

At a time when the United States is preoccupied with the most wide-open presidential race in more than 50 years, former aides like Julia Payne say he does not talk much about politics, recalling that she saw him at the wedding in Nashville of a former staffer.

"The last time I talked with the Vice President, we talked light bulbs, not politics," she said.

Long-time adviser Carter Eskew said he talks to Gore about once a week.

"I don't think he's going to run," said Eskew. "He has said technically he hasn't ruled it out. But I can tell you he's making no moves and no sounds to indicate to me that he's going to run."

Gore's spokeswoman, Kalee Kreider, was more definitive.

"He has no intentions of running for president in 2008," she said recently from Nashville, where Gore lives.

But that is not stopping the draft Gore movement.

Peter Ryder is an activist in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, trying to persuade Gore to run. His group, Algore.org, is planning a Nov. 11 concert to raise money for the effort.

He said none of the other Democrats running in the race for the November 2008 election have the complete package like Gore.

"I think we need more than just a good president. I think we need someone with the potential for greatness. Al Gore, his rational approach to issues and problems, and obviously his work on global warming, made my decision to support him," Ryder said.

A West Virginia activist, Jim Tate, agreed. He said he was concerned that the current Democratic front-runner, Hillary Clinton, could be defeated by the Republican nominee because "she carries a lot of baggage with her."

He said he also believes Gore is the person who can "do the most for our country, and bring back foreign policy. We have no foreign policy."

My bet...

He doesn't run.

It's always flattering to be asked.

I genuinely don't think he wants it. Which of course, would probably make him a great President. But I don't think he runs.

Congratulations Mr. Vice President. Congratulations U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Well done.

PS. Stuff you didn't know about the Nobel Prize.

There's more...

Growing a Startup

A quick status report... We're GROWING!

Group News Blog made its first post July 1, three months ago tomorrow.

We just broke into the the top 15K List on Technorati which is massively fast growth (there are roughly 8 million blogs ranked on Technorati, plus many unranked.) We have 30K absolute unique visitors as our baseline, and grew by one-third last month.

I've been getting questions as to how GNB is growing so fast, often accompanied with a request I exchange blog links. Primarily, I defer to the concept that "If you write it, they will come" which I deeply believe.

Blogrolling

Steve taught us to keep our Blogroll very limited. We modify our roll occasionally, but we like that it fits completely on one screen. Who is on our blogroll? Blogs we visit all the time, writers we personally like, and an occasional wild card. There are sites on our blogroll I hit 15-20 times a day; the same is true for my colleagues.

How to get on our blogroll? Write amazingly well and post great content. When you start getting lots of links from us, you're likely to end up on our blogroll eventually. If we don't give you links, the next time we reorganize our blogroll, you may well drop off no matter if we're friends or you're a big dog among blogs. GNB bloggers use our blogroll on a daily basis. They are truly our working links.

But how is GNB growing so fast?

Read Paul Graham's essays on startups (all of them; one a day till you're done) and Joel Spolsky's essays on software & business (all of them; one a day till you're done, even the ones which seem to just be about software and you don't understand or care about software. Trust me: a) they're all about growing a business, and b) even the one's which aren't, you'll learn something from.)

I have stuff to say and lessons we've learned about how it is we're growing this fast. Yeah, we are pretty much calling our shots (13 ball in the corner pocket) in the sense that this growth is planned, not accidental.

The details -- the what and how -- of our growth, needs to wait:

• 'Cause it would be the height of hubris to say we've got it wired, before actually, like um, winning the game,
• I'm at my absolute physical limit and simply don't have anything left to put into laying out how we're doing what we're doing. There is very specific method to our madness. Often several.
• I'm keeping semi-accurate notes and once we hit at least the 5K list or better, the 2K Technorati list and 50K absolute unique visitors, and I'm getting regular sleep (and if Mary-Sue ain't in Jail, Pregnant and the Creek Don't Rise), then I'm open to discussing how we got there, and
• It's the writing, fool.

The GNB Bloggers, my perspective:

• Hubris brings in a perspective on the war which schools me all the time, plus a deep grasp of international & U.S. politics. He's even better in person. Plus he's a serious foodie. As is his wife.
• Sara is coaching me on finding a possible fill-in for vacation relief, and gives me notes on my essays. She turns out flawless work with professional ease. She's so good I sometimes hate her.
• Lower Manhattanite leaves me holding my breath each time he posts. Sometimes I spit up on my keyboard; other times I weep. Sometimes both within minutes.
• And me.

Each of these people is my friend. How fortunate am I?

Our first quarter is over. Our next quarter is beginning.

We know where we're going and are glad you're here with us. I'll call one of our shots in public: No later than one month from now, Halloween/Nov 1, GNB will be on the Technorati 10K list.

Thank you for an amazing first three months. Here's to a terrific fall quarter.

There's more...

Postscript to the Webb Amendment

“Why Don't Mommy & Daddy Come Home?”

Republicans.
Another edition of Short Answers to Foolish Questions:

Who voted down the Webb Amendment?

Main and Central

I'm Sorry, Brothers

We know many of you have a sense of belief in what you’re doing over there in what I’ve called “Mr Bu$h’s ego-war.” Some of you probably feel that it is the United States’ world-wide responsibility to step in and overthrow murderous dictators. Part of me agrees with you. I’d like to see the murderous dictators in lots of other countries overthrown, too. (I’m sure it’s only coincidence there’s no oil in those countries.) You deserve my respect for backing your beliefs with your lives, even if I disagree with you.

Some of you seem to believe that Saddam Hussein personally and individually went out and rounded up a bunch of lunatics, financed them, trained them, and sent them off to attack innocent Americans on September 11th. You might be right. But we haven’t found any evidence for that. But did you know that 15 of the 19 people who killed Americans on 9/11 were Saudis? I can’t help wondering why he didn’t recruit Iraqis, or alternatively, who did recruit the Saudis? In any case, I still respect you, even if your beliefs are illogical.

Some of you just love your country and are willing to back that love. Or maybe you’re just trying to get enough money in the bank to go to college. You have my respect.

A lot of you are tired. You’re on your second, third and fourth tours – now extended to 15 months, with a really good chance of them being extended again to 18 months - and your wives are dispirited, jumping every time the doorbell rings, and your kids cry at night, wondering where their Daddy is.

I’m sorry.

I know some of you stick it out because of pride in yourselves and your brothers. I know how that is because I remember how it was for me, too.

I wish you were allowed to read this because I wanted you to know we’re trying everything we possibly can to get you guys some slack. Jim Webb, a veteran and Senator from Virginia, has been trying to get an amendment passed to get you guys more slack. His plan is simple: for every month over there you get a month here in the States. Guaranteed. Time to relax a bit. Time to remind your wives that you love them. Time for your kids to relearn how their Daddy loves them.

We thought we had it nailed, this time. It looked like the Webb Amendment would pass yesterday. Even John Warner, a Republican Senator from Virginia, promised to support the amendment.

When the final vote count was revealed we could only marshal 56 of the 60 votes needed to invoke cloture and get the bill onto the Senate floor for a public vote. I know this will surprise you, but it was the Republican Party that didn’t want you to get treated humanely.

John Warner, who’d promised Jim Webb he would support the amendment, lied like a cheap Persian rug in a third rate Algerian bordello. He voted against the Webb amendment, even though he voted for it the last time. That sack of crap said, “I’m 80 years old, I’m going to retire, and I’m more afraid of George Bu$h and Dick Cheney than I am of the troops and the voters.” Or words to that effect. Fuck him twice.

Mel Martinez, one of my own particular bits of shame, said

“I think we would demean their service if we were to say to them that there had to be a parity between the time in service out of the country and the time at home.”

So Senator Martinez, who’s never had to put on a uniform, stand guard, hear the bee-buzz of bullets over his head, watch a buddy’s head explode into catsup, or hold someone tight as he bleeds out, asking for his mother, figures you’d just be “demeaned” if you caught a break.

Fuck him three times.

I’ll tell you who voted against the amendment: 43 Republican Senators. You know, the assholes who keep crowing how much they support the troops.

Fuck them all, four times.

Oh, and Joe Lieberman, the Republican from Tel Aviv who pretends he’s an Independent from Connecticut, who wants all your asses over there until each and every one of Israel’s enemies is destroyed,

Fuck him until the cows come home.

Sorry, brothers, we tried. We’ll try again, and keep trying until we get you treated like human beings.

Amen.

It's all talk to the Republicans; you, your children and loved ones, mean shit.

We'll get you home to your families. I don't know how yet, but I promise.

We'll get you all taken care of. This I vow. Count on it.

Hat tip Minstrel Boy

There's more...

We All Fall Down

(Yes, the bear still gets BIG when you click. BIG.)

When Markets Lose Their Minds

Here's the tease. Go read the whole thing.

PrudentBear

Free market economics is famously predicated on “market rationality,” the idea that each participant in the economy acts as a coolly reasoning “homo economicus” in purchase and investment decisions. Yet as the disintegration of the 1995-2007 credit bubble continues it is becoming more and more obvious that in several areas economic decision-making during this period has been highly irrational. There are no complete solutions to this problem, but there are palliatives.

• Subprime mortgages themselves exemplify irrational markets, yet the participants’ activities at each stage were economically in their own rational interest:
• Low income consumers took on mortgages they had no prospect of affording because they believed from the experience of others that house prices would rise sufficiently to bail them out. In any case being often near bankruptcy the potential profit from successful speculation appeared to them greater than the potential loss from default.
• Mortgage brokers sold subprime mortgages because they got a commission for selling them and were not responsible for the credit risk.
• Investment banks packaged the subprime mortgages into multiple-tranche mortgage backed securities because they received fat fees for doing so and again had no real responsibility for the credit risk.
• Rating agencies gave the upper tranches of mortgage debt favorable ratings, because they made a great deal of money from providing ratings for asset backed securities, needed to keep in the favor of the investment banks who brought them this attractive business, and had mathematical models (either their own or the investment banks’) “proving” that the default rate of the securitized mortgages would be low.
• Investment bank and rating agency mathematicians produced models “proving “ that default rates would be low, ignoring the real-world correlations between defaults on low quality consumer debt, because they were well paid to do so – the alternative was to return to a miserable cheese-paring existence in academia.
• Finally the investors bought asset backed securities because they could achieve a higher return on them in the short term than their borrowing costs, and could tell their funding sources (in the case of hedge funds) or bosses (in the case of foreign banks) that they were taking very little risk because of the securities’ high rating.

Each step of the process was rational (albeit operating on imperfect information), yet because incentives were hopelessly misaligned, the final result was an irrational market, in which loans that would not be repaid were securitized and sold to investors seeking an above-market return at below market risk, a combination that in the long run ought not to exist without the application of extraordinary intelligence.

In the credit card business, currently equally likely to subside into a slough of defaults, the rationale was a little different. Here the subprime credit card consumer had no rational basis for believing that anything he bought with the card would become sufficiently valuable to pay off the card debt. Instead, the credit card business became a tribute to the power of advertising; by sending out credit card solicitations weekly to every deadbeat in the United States, the card companies were able to persuade consumers that taking on too much debt was a perfectly natural means of acquiring the consumer goods or vacations they craved. “Homo economicus” would have rejected excessive card offers; in the real world unsophisticated consumers are deluded into thinking that credit card debt is manageable, and that their income will increase sufficiently to service it. As with subprime mortgages, credit card lenders would not have been so aggressive if the assets had resided on their balance sheet, but through securitization they too could delude themselves that they were sloughing off the credit risks onto anonymous third parties.

The derivatives market was also an area in which irrationality held full sway. Here the fault was excessive belief in mathematical models. It was attractive to traders and to operating management to pretend that markets were fully stochastic random walks – after all, Nobel prizes had been given for this assertion – and to assess Value at Risk on that basis, ignoring the reality that markets often behave in a highly non-random manner. By doing this, management could claim to investors that risk positions were in reality modest, while traders could bet the future of the institution on gambles that may go spectacularly wrong every few years, but in the meantime keep the investor capital and the bonuses flowing in.

Nothing stays up forever. There's a reason a dollar in Canada is now worth a dollar in the U.S. (You didn't know? Go read that also.) The Canadian buck is equal to the U.S. dollar. Today is should happen (yesterday it was nudging against the tick.)

Gold is up, the Euro is up, the dollar is in the fucking tank.

Nothing lasts. Especially empires founded in inflated petro-dollars backed up by overwhelming military might. Our boy-king has fucking BROKEN our military, so now we can't shove our petro-dollars up the asses of the treasuries of every National Treasury in the world.

No one's pulled the rug out from under us quite yet, because a wounded Cheney can still bite plus everyone still holds literally billions and mega-billions in U.S. treasuries; they'd be causing their own net worth to be fucked. We would -- not might, would -- retaliate against anyone who started against us. But when the whole world starts selling Treasuries.

It doesn't matter much if we're attacked fast (which is what Cheney is geared up for) or nice and slow like the classic story of the Daddy Bull and the Baby Bull on the hill (someone will tell it in comments.) We're getting fucked by everyone this time. The emperor has no clothes left anymore. Because we've revealed in Iraq just how easy it is for a two-bit country to whoop our ass.

So long of course as we're not going to go in and raise them to the fucking ground and kill fucking EVERYONE leaving dust and radiation for 100 years.

There is that option. There is, always, that option. *nods a very scary hello to fucking Satan in the form of Dick Cheney and his minions*

Which is precisely why this global ass-fucking the dollar is getting is coming with the Daddy Bear (not a bull; we're switching, actually, mixing metaphors -- keep up) and the Baby Bear on the hill coming down slowly. But the United States is going to get fucked by every nation in the world -- including our special friend, England -- just the same.

Take that from the bank and sit on it.

And if you're stocking up, I'd do it in gold and silver bullion coins. Euro denominated funds in overseas accounts. And enough food, water, medicine and other critical supplies to ride out six months. Ain't life grand.

It's not if. It's when.

There's more...

All About Empathy?

“All of this has happened before, all of this will happen again.”

This is a political post.

Again -- this is a political post.

It isn't going to seem like it to some of you. Hopefully I've earned your trust. I tell you three times...

This is a political post.

Question: How do we save Africa? The children, the people?

Answer: I don't know. Won't have an answer by the end of this post, either. Really, I won't.

I'm going to go off in a different direction briefly. Starting with quoting the bible. Three-fourths of one chapter. A short one. Go on; it won't bite.

Liberal. What's wrong? You don't hate America, do you?

Read it...

The Bible

THE GOSPEL ACCORDING TO
ST MATTHEW

CHAPTER 25

Jesus gives the parables of the ten virgins, the talents, and the sheep and the goats.

14 ¶ For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods.

15 And unto one he ^agave five ^btalents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey.

16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents.

17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two.

18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord’s money.

19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and ^areckoneth with them.

20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou ^adeliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more.

21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful ^aservant: thou hast been ^bfaithful over a few things, I will make thee ^cruler over many things: enter thou into the ^djoy of thy lord.

22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them.

23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and ^afaithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord.

24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an ^ahard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed:

25 And I was ^aafraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine.

26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and ^aslothful servant, thou knewest that I ^breap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed:

27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with ^ausury.

28 Take therefore the ^atalent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents.

29 For unto every one that hath shall be ^agiven, and he shall have ^babundance: but from him that hath not shall be ^ctaken away even that which he hath.

30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

31 ¶ When the ^aSon of man shall come in his ^bglory, and all the holy angels with him, then shall he sit upon the throne of his glory:

32 And before him shall be gathered all ^anations: and he shall ^bseparate them one from another, as a ^cshepherd divideth his ^dsheep from the goats:

33 And he shall set the sheep on his ^aright hand, but the goats on the left.

34 Then shall the King say unto them on his ^aright hand, Come, ye ^bblessed of my Father, ^cinherit the ^dkingdom prepared for you from the foundation of the world:

35 For I was an ^ahungred, and ye ^bgave me meat: I was thirsty, and ye gave me drink: I was a ^cstranger, and ye took me in:

36 Naked, and ye clothed me: I was sick, and ye ^avisited me: I was in ^bprison, and ye came unto me.

37 Then shall the righteous answer him, saying, Lord, when saw we thee an hungred, and fed thee? or thirsty, and gave thee drink?

38 When saw we thee a stranger, and took thee in? or naked, and clothed thee?

39 Or when saw we thee ^asick, or in prison, and came unto thee?

40 And the King shall answer and say unto them, Verily I say unto you, Inasmuch as ye have ^adone it unto one of the ^bleast of these my ^cbrethren, ye have done it unto me.

41 Then shall he say also unto them on the ^aleft hand, ^bDepart from me, ye ^ccursed, into everlasting ^dfire, ^eprepared for the devil and his angels:

42 For I was an ^ahungred, and ye gave me no meat: I was thirsty, and ye gave me no drink:

43 I was a stranger, and ye took me not in: naked, and ye clothed me not: sick, and in prison, and ye visited me not.

44 Then shall they also answer him, saying, Lord, when saw we thee an hungred, or athirst, or a stranger, or naked, or sick, or in prison, and did not minister unto thee?

45 Then shall he answer them, saying, Verily I say unto you, Inasmuch as ye did it not to one of the ^aleast of these, ye did it not to me.

46 And these shall go away into ^aeverlasting ^bpunishment: but the ^crighteous into ^dlife ^eeternal.

What is this saying to me. Well, lots.

Some of it is... The people who get the most done, have the most smarts, the most money, the most whatever, give them more work to do. They're able to do more. And competent.

Expect more from the people who get shit done. Put the best people to work on tough problems. Have people work on stuff even harder than the stuff they're working on; it will challenge them.

As for the poor, the sick, the needy. THEY ARE YOU. God is saying here, I am everywhere. I am you and you are me (and no, we're not going to sing a song.) The scripture is literally saying, there is no differentiation between any of us, between anything. Which is only what the fundamental mystical experience of all religions tells us. None of which I give a damn about from a political point of view; that's between you and your own spiritual practices -- which we'll have fun with here on GNB, but isn't what we're talking about right now. I promised you, this is a political post.

What we're talking about right now is simple.

Question: How does one have enough empathy to make a difference when faced with Africa? Is that even possible?

Answers. Two. No, three.

# 1. No, it isn't. When confronted with the heartbreak of Africa, the strongest person among us, crumbles or quits. Yes, going insane is quiting. Dying is quiting. Doing a great job day after day with a smile on your face but more children die than you can possible treat is quiting -- because it doesn't make any damn difference. The fundamental condition isn't changed.

# 2. Yes, but you have to be a saint. Sorry, a mystic. Have gone down into the Valley of the Shadow of Death and come out the other side with authentic wisdom, not some bullshit California (or the eastern Indian version) airy-fairy bullshit. Not for the faint of heart. Perhaps one in two million people can pull this off successfully [my best estimate, and I've given this serious thought; that number is not pulled out of my ass.] Point being, the Age of Aquarius where enlightened ones lead us all through transformation to a better us, is not going to happen. Anyone who says otherwise has a book, tapes, or a weekend educational program they want to sell you (only $440 [$450 in LA, $510 in New York].)

# 3. Clive Thompson in Wired Magazine proposes high-level geeks have the capacity for thinking in large numbers without being blinded by empathy, while making correct choices. He wants us to split the difference.

Wired

As you probably know, Gates is aggressively tackling third world diseases. He has targeted not only high-profile scourges like AIDS but also maladies like malaria, diarrhea, and parasitic infections. These latter illnesses are the really important ones to attack, because they kill millions a year and are entirely preventable. For decades, they flew under the radar of philanthropists in the West. So why did Gates become the first major humanitarian to take action?

The answer lies in the psychology of numeracy — how we understand numbers.

I've been reading the fascinating work of Paul Slovic, a psychologist who runs the social-science think tank Decision Research. He studies a troubling paradox in human empathy: We'll usually race to help a single stranger in dire straits, while ignoring huge numbers of people in precisely the same plight. We'll donate thousands of dollars to bring a single African war orphan to the US for lifesaving surgery, but we don't offer much money or political pressure to stop widespread genocides in Rwanda or Darfur.

You could argue that we're simply callous, or hypocrites. But Slovic doesn't think so. The problem isn't a moral failing: It's a cognitive one. We're very good at processing the plight of tiny groups of people but horrible at conceptualizing the suffering of large ones.

In one recent experiment, Slovic presented subjects with a picture of "Rokia," a starving child in Mali, and asked them how much they'd be willing to give to help feed her. Then he showed a different group photos of two Malinese children — "Rokia and Moussa." The group presented with two kids gave 15 percent less than those shown just one child. In a related experiment, people were asked to donate money to help a dying child. When a second set of subjects was asked to donate to a group of eight children dying of the same cause, the average donation was 50 percent lower.

Slovic suspects this stuff is hardwired. Psychologists have long observed that our ability to discriminate among quantities is finely tuned when dealing with small amounts but quickly degrades as the numbers get larger. Our ears work that way, too. When a very quiet sound becomes slightly louder, we detect the difference right away. But once a noise is really loud, it has to increase dramatically for it to seem "louder." The same holds true for our judgments of weight and, of course, less tangible quantities like money. We'll break the bank to save Baby Jessica, but when half of Africa is dying, we're buying iPhones.

Which brings me back to Gates. The guy is practically a social cripple, and at times he has seemed to lack human empathy. But he's also a geek, and geeks are incredibly good at thinking concretely about giant numbers. Their imagination can scale up and down the powers of 10 — mega, giga, tera, peta — because their jobs demand it.

So maybe that's why he is able to truly understand mass disease in Africa. We look at the huge numbers and go numb. Gates looks at them and runs the moral algorithm: Preventable death = bad; preventable death x 1 million people = 1 million times as bad.

We tend to think that the way to address disease and death is to have more empathy. But maybe that's precisely wrong. Perhaps we should avoid leaders who "feel your pain," because their feelings will crap out at, you know, eight people.

What we need are more Bill Gateses — people with Aspergian focus, with a direct sensual ability to understand what a million means. They've got to be able to envision every angel on the head of a pin. Because when it comes to stopping the mass tragedies of today's world, we're going to need every one of them.

I don't know. But this is really interesting to me. It questions something very basic to my core, moving a fundamental competency -- if this guy is correct -- from a learned competence to something biological.

Huh.

I've spent my life going down the twin roads of competency and compassion. Yet reading this I now am left wondering... how much of my capacity to feel enormously, to have such deep empathy, to reach out and grasp great huge chunks of, um, feeling space, is mediated by that I'm also a great big enormous geek? That I've been in Information Tech since I was 21, when I was asked to throw together a helicopter ambulance system for the State of Arkansas, and given an account on the PDP-10 at the University to do it...and fell in love with the damn computer system.

This guy is telling me my capacity for reaching out to "be with", to feel 500 people's emotions in a room, or 50,000 people's emotions across a live video uplink, as easily as I feel one (well, not as easily certainly, but I can do it) -- which is not easy -- is as much a function of my geekdom, as it is the years and years of deep, serious life-altering work I put in on my Track #2 answer above.

Huh.

Now that is some interesting shit.

I don't have any solutions to Africa. Frankly, I try and avoid thinking about Africa most of the time. But I don't see how anyone can be in the world as a real political person and not confront deal with actually do something about that we've got an entire continent of humans most of us have just flushed from our concern. Africa simply isn't for most of us almost all the time.

Perhaps Clive Thompson has part of the answer. To send genuine geeks, really really smart people with a technical bent, to look at Africa's problems, not from an emotional level, but from a "how can we fix this" troubleshooting level. Although I'd damn sure want some people I trust emotionally -- some adults, women and men who are full blown grown ups with active stakes in the results -- to vet what the geeks came up with.

What the hell. What we've got sure as shit ain't working. Anything has got to be better than letting the oil companies send whole African countries to war for the profits under the ground, while the drug companies farm the children and women and sick people like herd animals free of FDA regulations.

THE GOSPEL ACCORDING TO
ST MATTHEW

CHAPTER 25

34 Then shall the King say unto them on his ^aright hand, Come, ye ^bblessed of my Father, ^cinherit the ^dkingdom prepared for you from the foundation of the world:

35 For I was an ^ahungred, and ye ^bgave me meat: I was thirsty, and ye gave me drink: I was a ^cstranger, and ye took me in:

36 Naked, and ye clothed me: I was sick, and ye ^avisited me: I was in ^bprison, and ye came unto me.

37 Then shall the righteous answer him, saying, Lord, when saw we thee an hungred, and fed thee? or thirsty, and gave thee drink?

38 When saw we thee a stranger, and took thee in? or naked, and clothed thee?

39 Or when saw we thee ^asick, or in prison, and came unto thee?

40 And the King shall answer and say unto them, Verily I say unto you, Inasmuch as ye have ^adone it unto one of the ^bleast of these my ^cbrethren, ye have done it unto me.

Tat tvam asi.

"Verily I say unto you, Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

There's more...

It's About Oil Prices, Stupid

$80 Oil

Oil up 31% this year

Reuters

Oil hit an all-time high over $80 a barrel on Thursday after Hurricane Humberto forced the closure of some U.S. Gulf refiners, stoking concerns of fuel supply shortfalls.

U.S. crude traded up 9 cents to $80.00 a barrel by 2:15 p.m. EDT, after hitting a record $80.20 earlier. London Brent crude gave up 23 cents to $77.45 a barrel.

U.S. gasoline futures soared in early activity after Hurricane Humberto shut oil shipping channels and three refineries as it slammed onshore in Texas, before being downgraded to a tropical storm.

"We have a storm working its way to American facilities. We have an economic crisis, so many things are affecting ... prices," said Hasan Qabazard, director of OPEC's research division.

Though quadruple the levels of 2002, the price of oil when adjusted for inflation is below the $90-a-barrel peaks of the Iranian Revolution in 1979 and the start of the Iran-Iraq War the following year.

Strong fundamentals and the recent price surge has lured more investors into oil markets, their enthusiasm growing thanks to a market structure that encourages favorable returns.

"Modest demand growth combined with no significant supply increases has caused oil inventories to decline sharply, creating backwardation in the oil forward curve, which is a very bullish signal," said Jeffrey Currie of Goldman Sachs.

In a backwardated market, oil for delivery in the near term is more expensive than for later shipment. Investors make money by selling the more costly prompt oil futures contract and buying cheaper crude contracts for later delivery.

The market shifted into backwardation in part because some analysts and consumers believe OPEC will not pump enough oil to satisfy demand for fuel this winter. [jwe: emphasis added]

To try to soothe consumers, OPEC agreed a small supply increase on Tuesday. But analysts said OPEC's deal to raise output by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) from November 1 was not enough to reverse a rally that has lifted prices by 31 percent this year.

And we're not even talking about the problem of national banks moving their investments from dollars to euros, and Iran trying to accept oil payment in euros instead of dollars. Which is a large part of why the United States is really planning an attack -- to maintain U.S. control of the world's reserve currency instead of allowing the Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse to succeed. More on this in another post another day.

In the meantime, the weakness of the dollar continues to cause oil producers to not want to cut either production or prices. Consequently when we see prices rise to new records due to shortfalls in the market, it becomes clear prices really are this high naturally. No one is holding back to jack up prices. Everyone is already at or near capacity because they're already being hurt by the low dollar.

Oil.
Another edition of Short Answers to Foolish Questions:

1. What kind of company gave the most to GWB's election?
2. What industry did Bush & Cheney spend their life in?
3. What is the principle product of Iraq?
4. Of Iran? Saudi Arabia? Hell, the whole middle east?
5. During war, which prices always go up, up, up?
6. In which industry does Cheney have his "blind trust" invested?
7. Which industry has had the biggest (record) profits since Iraq?
8. What prices would hit $150-300 a barrel if we invade Iran?
9. Saudi Arabia has the world's largest supply of ____?
10. Poor people die fighting each other over ____,
making rich people much richer who control all the ____.

Bonus: The Bush Administration denies its war is about?

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Old Yeller

US eliminates canine rabies

This doesn't mean your dog and cat don't need their shots.

Rabies still lives in racoon, bat, and other night time critters. However according to CDC officials, rabies has been eliminated in the United States dog population.

AFP

"The elimination of canine rabies in the United States represents one of the major public health success stories in the last 50 years," stated Charles Rupprecht, chief of the CDC Rabies Program.

Rabies in humans accounts for at least 55,000 deaths annually around the world -- at a rate of nearly one every 10 minutes.

US canine-rabies elimination was achieved through mandatory dog vaccination and licensing and aggressive stray dog control.

"Our public health infrastructure, including our quarantine stations, local animal control programs, veterinarians, and clinicians all play a vital role in preserving the canine-rabies-free status in the US," Rupprecht said.

"This is the first step in a long-term effort toward human rabies prevention and animal rabies control globally."

"We remain optimistic that this official declaration of canine-rabies free status in the United States could be replicated throughout the Western Hemisphere and elsewhere," Rupprecht said.

"Rabies is ever-present in wildlife and can be transmitted to dogs or other pets. We need to stay vigilant."

I saw Old Yeller with my kids not too long ago. It didn't have the same devastating impact on me as it did when I was a kid. I mean, I still can't watch Bambi. So I wanted to be there to make sure my daughters were okay. Silly me. Our children are not us.

Rabies gone from dogs. How many movies does this ruin? Old Yeller. Cujo. (Name drop: Cujo was cast by Judith Holstra, my Emmy-winning [ex-]mother-in-law. *waves hello*)

What others movies don't work now that rabies in dogs is gone?

Small pox is gone world wide. Malaria is gone from the developed world. People used to die from tetanus, from scurvy, from -- no kidding -- an infected tooth.

Women died in childbirth ALL THE TIME fifty years ago. Not that it can't happen now, but it's rare in the developed countries. Why did families have such large families 100 years ago? Sure, lack of birth control and an unforgiving religious structure (*waves to Utah*) but also, to make certain enough children lived to adulthood to keep the family unit intact. Most families lost one or two children in childhood either at birth or to childhood diseases. Polio was normal when I was a child; iron lungs.

All this in two generations. Okay, three.

Coming up, cures (genetic and otherwise) for: heart disease, cancer, HIV, mental illness, even cataracts and near/far sightedness.

On the horizon: the ability to think more clearly, to control your mood, setting your own metabolic level (weight and exercise). And more.

People say this is the age of technology. Technology makes much possible. But medicine, the biological sciences are one of the crowning achievements of the last 100 years: the age of biology.

Dogs without rabies. How cool is that?

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Chicago, Chicago...

Lazy August Afternoons (Mornings and Evenings Also)

Nope, you didn't imagine it. Posting is a bit slow.

Hubris Sonic is at YearlyKos in Chicago. Sara's there as well. I've been getting ready to go on vacation and LowerManhattanite is in NYC holding down the fort.

My long-promised article which started out on doping and is now an essay, not just on doping, on lying in sports and life -- Should You Lie? About Trust -- got kicked back to me by the delightful Sara who as it turns out is a demon of the 8th bolgia when wielding her editor's pen. *shudders* The final essay will be substantially better thanks to Sara's pitchfork and manical laugh watching me struggle in and out of the pits superb editing, but can't be finished before the kids and I leave on our long bicycle ride.

In short, it's August. Hot, muggy, and slow. LM will post. Perhaps HS and SR will post. I will attempt to post at least once more before leaving Saturday morning at some fracking ridiculous hour. But with three of us traveling (two by plane after YearlyKos and myself and the kids by bicycle all of this coming week) and who the hell knows how LM travels... It's New York City so the possibilities include subway, train, taxi, bus, boat, aerial tram out to the island (oh come on, you remember that scene near the end of The Professional where 12-year old Natalie Portman [Mathilda] took her stuffed bunny rabbit and rode the tramway out to Roosevelt Island in the middle of the East River, yes, you know you do), and if you really want to get fancy, helicopter, private plane and ship. (Of course personal vehicles but who the hell is stupid enough to drive a car in the city?!) Not to mention you can walk damn near anywhere in New York. Gods I love New York.

My point is, the posting... It's August and till Monday August 13 when I return from vacation and all four of us are back home turning out the politics, snark, video, politics, news from the GNB Sports Desk, tech, the politics, and whatever else crosses what little's left of our travel-addled minds in the muggy heat which is August.

Till then, patience. Hugs to all. And please remember to keep breathing.

PS. Links, stories, background information wanted. Always.

Got a hot tip? Something we should read, a link we should see, background info even if it isn't a story. Maybe a secret to leak, or someone to talk with, please -- email us. You are our eyes and ears.

Contact us and tell us what's what. Thanks!

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In the immortal words of Dave Chappelle/Rick James: "Wal-COME!"

Well.

Been sitting here thinking to myself "How do you kick this off?"

How do you say, "Welcome!"

And as I thought about that, pictures of fucked-up, shocking and unexpected welcomes flashed through my mind--Pow! Pow! Pow! And then, one stuck.

I pictured Charlie Murphy, from "Chappelle's Show", describing his first trip in his "True Hollywood Stories" to The China Club, a nightspot of some fame in New York, and then recounting his shock as he walked in, preparing to get a drink--and realizing something was amiss when he saw his running buddy, a crazed, oddly-misplaced Rick James someplace a bit "off the beaten path".

CHARLIE: And there was Rick...behind the bar.

It was an "Oh shit." moment for Charlie as you may remember. Things got wilder with every second from there on. Because Rick was someplace unexpected--doing something ol' Charlie wasn't used to seeing Rick doing.

Serving up drinks. Behind the bar.

You, the reader probably feel a little bit like Charlie Murphy that night, wondering "What the fuck is gonna happen here?" Trust me--as one of your unexpected "bartenders" here at The Group News Blog, I feel a little like Charlie m' damn self.

Because as you know...I was a patron, along with many of you at a great "watering hole" called... The News Blog. For several years, in fact. And its talented proprietor, the late (Goddamn...it hurts, and I cannot get used to saying that--"the late") Steve Gilliard served 'em up lovely, ya'll--an' ya know that. I have rarely run across a writer whose passion, forcefulness and sheer talent moved me more. I came every Goddamn day, just like you, and drank my fill of his words, opinions and analysis of things political, cultural and all about the place. He even let me occasionally pour a wee dram--heh!--like I knew what the fuck I was doing, behind the bar.

He engaged us all, and kept us happily, staggering drunk with knowledge for years.

And then? Then the bartender/proprietor/brewmaster got sick this year--a second rough bout with the devil in fact, but this time, after several months...sadly, the devil won.

Fucking devil.

During that interim, when the devil and Steve pas de deux-ed, a bunch of us tried to step up and carry things along until the big guy got better. How well we did, I don't know. But I do know we tried...because it was the fight for right that Steve was about--and we--that bunch of bleary-eyed barflies figured "You know what? He'd want the fight to go on in his absence." So, we did. And painfully for us all, he didn't make it back.

But...we kinda learned some things in the process. The fight has to go on, for one--and secondly, we can all take a little something we learned from the big guy, and maybe do our part to help wage that fight.

That's what for me, this--The Group News Blog is about.

It's not a continuation of The News Blog, for nothing can be that. That bad boy is the uncanny offspring of a supremely talented cat and his aide dé camp, Jordan and Pippen--Steve and Jen. We can't fuck with that kind of..well, fuck it--greatness. No, this is a kind of offshoot, wild-assed, cross-pollination, quill-shooting, radioactive mutant, test-tube baby of what happened those last four months at The News Blog, where some of us learned about the level and even presence of some of our nutty, hard-to-harness "powers".

But the main thing is--the vision. The natural flow from "We Fight Back", to "We Fight On" as you see in the masthead above. So yeah, it's gonna be political. It's gonna be rough. It's even gonna be fun, and snarky and all that shit at times. But we're gonna try to make it one thing for certain: Sucka-free. Ain't gonna be about no back-slidin' or half-steppin. I'm a liberal. I'm a progresisve. I'm a dirty fucking hippie--cept' I ain't that dirty, and I like real nice clothes. I'm all the shit that wingnut bastards hate and I'm Goddamned proud of it. So rest assured, the fastballs are comin' as usual, hard and portside. And I love beaning slow-reflexed right-wingers. I got notches in my glove for every one.

That's how this place is gonna play. It's gonna deal with the international, the national, and the local shit. We're gonna discuss war, and how to get...to peace. We're gonna look at what's shaping up to be--the longest election season since Guyana's Three-Toed Sloth Council voted for its Circle of Jungle Elders. Pop culture will be commented on--as will food, and yes...even advice.

Health and gadgets too, ya'll. It'll be here. And I'll be here, too. Maybe a little hesitant. But fuck, now I can at last answer those who've said "Well, why ain't you blogging?" for the longest, with a simple, "I am...now."

It's gonna be hard. I didn't do it before because of time constraints. Those constraints still exist, but somehow--I found a way to kinda do it while Steve was sick. So you know what? I've said "Fuck it. I'll try this.". I can't post as often as Steve did--a herculean feat that I don't even know how he did--but this is a team effort, as things were these last few months at TNB. And the other members of the team--you know them as Hubris Sonic and "Doc" Wendel, will be tossin' alley-oops, throwing down backboard-shattering dunks, and setting hard picks as well--so we're sharin' the ball here.

And at this point, I'd like to thank every one of you who helped us all get through the rough times these past few months--Jim in LA, Doc Bopper, Sara at Orcinus, Julia, Skippy, Bob Geiger, Gracchus, blksista, The Political Junkie, Tanbark, Driftglass, ice weasel, Phoenix Woman, Lindsay at majikthise--every one of you who took the time to write and fill in the gaps--you know who you are, and the archives are tough to search now as the original site transitions, so I can't name-check you all--and those of you who kept reading, and lurked, and commented and kept the community going. We thank--I thank you all.

But most of all...I want to thank Steve--and Jen, for providing a comfortable place for a bunch of people scattered all across the country--and world to camp out, and learn and share. You guys made these last few years of infectious madness seeping from the command and control of our country, downward to where we all dwell--that much more bearable.

And you even managed to make it fun--with the occasional post on well-insured derrieres, men with strategically-placed hams, and the merits of beer-can chicken. Bless you a thousand times.

I can only hope, that this new bar--with my dumb ass at the taps during a shift, can be a sliver of as much fun--'cause if it is, that would be a major achievement.

So, we've had our sadness. Our hurt. It's gonna leave a scar. But you know what? The fight still goes on. Bastards still wanna flex--wanna boost your shit. Be it your rights, your dignity, or your very existence. Fuck all that. You're gonna fight, and live, and Goddamnit--enjoy. So belly up cats and kiddies, dudes and dudettes. And get your bloggy drank on. 'Cause we want you good and blotto on the grog we'll be serving when that inevitable moment comes. You kno wthe one.

Some wingnut's gonna roll by, like he's the man, and we're gonna have to say to him...

"Hey! There's a new joke goin' round--have ya heard it? It goes...'What...did the five fingers say to the wingnut's face?"

SLAP! :)

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