Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

IRAN: Selected References July 2008

Fars News Agency, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images


VIDEOS
The Folly of Attacking Iran: Lessons from History. 2-11-08.

Hedges: It's Insane to Attack Iran, Devastating Consequences. 5-31-08.


BIBLIOGRAPHY
This selected bibliography of articles is listed by most recent date.

Hersh, Seymour M. Preparing the Battlefield. The Bush Administration steps up its secret moves against Iran. The New Yorker, July 7, 2008.


Parry, Robert. Iran-Contra’s ‘Lost Chapter.’ Consortiumnews.com, 6-30-08.

Raimondo, Justin. Don’t Wait for World War III. Act now to stop it! Antiwar.com, 6-30-08.


Mother Jones Blog. Iran Panic? Talk About It With the Experts. MotherJones.com, 6-28-08.

CBS. Israel Prodding U.S. To Attack Iran. CBS News, 6-24-08.

DeBatto, David. An Iran Attack Scenario - A Catastrophe The finishing touches on several contingency plans for attacking Iran. Global Research. 6-23-08

McGovern, Ray. Iran attack coming soon. Rawstory.com, 6-22-08.

Bomb Iran? What’s to Stop Us? Antiwar.com 6-20-08.

Peterson, Scott. How Iran would retaliate if it comes to war. The Christian Science Monitor, 6-20-08.

Porter, Gareth. Attack Iran? Cheney’s Already Tried. IPS News, Alternet.org, 6-10-08.

Jerusalem Post. White House denies Iran attack report. 5-20-08.

Progress Report. Lieberman Says Bombing Iran ‘Has An Appeal To It.’ Thinkprogress.org, 5-14-08.

Cockburn, Andrew. Secret Bush ‘Finding’ Widens War on Iran. Counterpunch.org, 5-02-08.

Dreyfuss, Robert. Shirin Ebadi: Don’t Attack Iran. The Nation, 4-29-08.

Brecher, Jeremy and Brendan Smith. How the Military Can Top an Iran Attack. The Nation, 10-09-07.

Clemons, Steve. Cheney Attempting to Constrain Bush's Choices on Iran Conflict: Staff Engaged in Insubordination Against President Bush. The Washington Note, 5-24-07

Oxfam. Military attack on Iran would have disastrous consequences warns new report. 2-05-07.

Dreyfuss, Robert. Next We Take Tehran. The confrontation with Iran has very little to do with nukes—and a lot with the agenda of empire. MotherJones.com, July/August 2006.

Porteous, Tom. Bush’s Unanswered Letter. TomPaine, 5-12-06.

Brecher, Jeremy & Brendan Smith. Attack Iran, ignore the Constitution. The Nation, 4-21-06.

Silber, Arthur. Morality, Humanity and Civilization: ‘Nothing remains...but memories’ San Francisco Chronicle, April 12, 2006

National Security Archive. The U.S. Tilts toward Iraq, 1980-1984.” National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 82. Edited by Joyce Battle. February 25, 2003.

Compiled by B.G. Bandler.
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Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Oil: Less Speculation, $200/bbl, Risk Premium, and Sources.


In my previous entry "Drill Here. Drill Now. Pay Less." More Conservative Bullshit., I discussed some of the basic memes that are out there about our current relationship with petrochemicals, including the idea that speculation was at the root of the current price shock, whether the price shock is directly related to "liberal politicians" (as Newt Gingrich has suggested), oil and food, oil supply and demand, and alternatives.

Because I have a family history in the 'awl bidness' and a couple of groups I'm involved with, and because any rational person wants to understand why the world is the way it is, I try to keep up with current ideas and trends in the petrochemical world and how they effect the rest of the world.

Here are a few of the sources I read. If you are interested in what's happening, you should read them too:

Dedicated Oil Sources
The Oil Drum: Discussions about Energy and Our Future
Royal Dutch Shell plc.com
Vancouver Peak Oil Executive

Generalized Economics Sources
Paul Krugman
Brad Delong
Marginal Revolution
Paul Kedrosky

What's Changed Recently?
One thing that has changed is that the generalized economics blogosphere appears to be coming down even harder against the idea that oil is a bubble or that speculation is responsible for much of the price shock. Part of that is because "a bubble" is very poorly defined (and usually after the fact) and that "speculation" is so incredibly vague as to be almost meaningless. Technically, anyone who buys a stock or currency or any commodity in order to make money selling it later is a speculator.

Another thing that has changed is that the meme of $200/bbl oil seems to be gaining traction. A quick Google turns up more than 12 million hits. Goldman Sachs suggested the idea in March, but there were other* mentions before that. Now the conversations are happening everywhere. Deutsche Bank is warning that $200 oil would "break the back of the global economy". Call options on oil at $200 (December) are up almost 40% since the end of April.

Risk Premium
And a third thing is the risk premium. Risk premium is the amount of the price of oil attributable to various risks around the world. For our purposes, the risk premium is the rise in oil price attributable to the possibility of disruption in oil supply.

We know from previous experience that world events can have significant impacts upon oil prices. The first Gulf War was associated with nearly a doubling of oil prices. The Iranian revolution and accompanying OPEC price increase raised oil prices 20%. The 1973 embargo raised prices 187%, according to the EIA.

Several major possibilities are in the front of people's minds: Nigeria, Iran, Russia.

In Nigeria, MEND has successfully attacked (for the first time) one of the distant offshore platforms. They've also cut pipelines onshore, cutting off 120K bpd. Nigeria supplies about 2400K bpd, so that is only .5%, but the capability begins to worry one.

Iran supplies about 4100K bpd. If the US military becomes more active there, everyone expects at least part of that supply to be cut off (as a significant amount of Iraq's oil extraction capacity has been off the market since the US invasion).

Russia is the second largest extracter of oil after Saudi Arabia at almost 9700K bpd. Their extraction is declining and they are showing signs of resource nationalism, especially in natural gas.

The way risk premiums work is that each oil buyer (consciously or unconsciously) calculates an expected value (EV) for oil in the future. They incorporate their beliefs about the likelihood of a disruption event and the resulting price into that EV, and that informs the price they are willing to pay for an oil futures contract. Various sources suggest that the risk premium right now is between $20 and $50 per barrel, or between 14% and 35% of the price.

Of these, I consider the Iran scenario to be the most worrisome because of volume, but the Nigeria scenario most likely and overall, scariest. In fact, I fear that MEND is showing others how to make significant strikes against the developed nations by disrupting oil supplies. The map at the top of the post links to a dynamic map at NewScientist. Click around. Look at the "Oil pinch points" portion and the Straits of Hormuz and Malacca. It's easy to see Iran disrupting travel through Hormuz, which is only 21 miles wide. Malacca is perhaps of more concern. At 500 miles long, Malacca narrows to only 1.5 nautical miles wide and portions are only 82 feet deep -- shallow enough that some supertankers must use other passages. Despite that, roughly 1/4 of world oil travels through Malacca. In 2003, 1/3 of global piracy attacks were in the strait of Malacca (I note that Wikipedia is not the greatest source).

I can easily see effective disruption of oil transport happening in either Hormuz or Malacca. If 1/4 of world extraction were to be destroyed, embargoed, or even just threatened for a few days, there could be a price spike the likes of which the world has never seen. Sam Bodman, US energy secretary, has indicated that every 1% rise in oil demand means a 20% rise in price. Taking 25% of supply out of the equation would (by his numbers) raise the price of a barrel of oil 500%, or to about $700. I don't see it being quite that bad, but I can easily see a doubling to $280 or even $300. And I have no doubt that re-routing would happen quickly to drop prices back, and that the US Navy would be patrolling the Strait as soon as possible.

But for a few days, we'd find out what Peak Oil really means.

So that's the news. Nothing** suggests that prices are going to drop anytime soon. Conventional wisdom is against it, which may be the only argument for lower prices :-). If political worries smooth over (which seems unlikely while Bush is in office or if McCain is elected), we could see the risk premium drop. That might get us back to $100 oil, but I doubt any better than that. IMO, the most effective weapon we have against high oil prices right now is diplomacy, and I mean that in the archaic sense of talking, not the neocon sense of preparing to attack.


* Yes, I consider that link a joke.

** Actually, I just read one thing. Gasoline usage is dropping in the US, and as a result, oil stocks are rising (that is, the amount of oil stored). We had a bit of a dip in prices last week as a result before they shot back up again. We've seen the basic scenario before: oil price shock lowers economic output, which lowers oil demand, which reduces oil price. But with multiple growing economies in the world demanding oil, it's going to be harder to make this scenario work this time.

Disclosure: I am passively invested in the extraction side of petrochemicals. I do not own stock in or have any active (decision-making) relationship with any company mentioned in the post.

[Updated: 2008.07.01 14:03 PDT to add final ** paragraph about reduced demand in the US possibly lowering prices.]

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Monday, June 2, 2008

Sex Change Operations: The Real Reason We're Gonna "Bomb, Bomb Iran"

[The News Blog (Jen and Gilley) had a habit of publishing interesting, amusing, thoughtful, and sometimes indeterminate pieces on the intersexion of politics and sex.  I hope that Gilley likes this one -- Evan]




By now everybody's heard of or seen video of John Sidney McCain paraphrasing The Beach Boys' fantastically popular cover of The Regents' "Barbara Ann".

Or was he?  Is it possible that he was actually quoting Vince Vance and the Valiants "Bomb Iran"?

Who cares?

Anyway, I've uncovered the real reason that the neocons are so concerned about Iran and why turning Iran into a parking lot will be a major foreign policy plank in any future right-wing administrations.

The Secret
Although there are no homosexuals in Iran, there are trannies!  OMG!

Fortunately, the sexually repressive religious regime of Iran viciously represses transsexuals, subjecting them to stoning, prison, torture, and death, right?

Right?


Turns out that the Islamic Republic of Iran is the second largest provider of sex change surgery in the world (after Thailand), and that there are officially between 15,000 and 20,000 transsexuals in Iran, although the Guardian alleges up to 150,000 unofficially.

Under current President and leading member of the Axis of Evil, Mahmoud Admadinejad, government support for  transsexual surgery has extended to bribes:
...state support has increased since Mr Ahmadinejad took office in 2005.  His government has begun providing grants of 2,250 for operations and further funding for hormone therapy.  It is also proposing loans of up to 2,750 to allow those undergoing surgery to start their own businesses.

It's obvious that this threat to the American way of life must not stand.  Under a right-thinking administration, Iran will be taken out of the transsexual axis of evil business, and put back into the sexual repression business, just like Afghanistan.

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Saturday, January 12, 2008

US: Iraqi Bombs Rise In Iraq

EFP - Explosive Formed Projectile

I am re-titling the piece I just saw on CNN.

U.S.: Iranian bombs rise in Iraq -- CNN.com
Attacks against U.S. troops in Iraq with bombs believed linked to Iran -- known as explosively formed penetrators (EFPs) -- have risen sharply in January after several months of decline, according to the top U.S. commander in Iraq.

The Military itself has said these are being made in Iraq not Iran. They have found manufacturing sites for them in Baghdad. Its a simple process. They are heavy and expensive to ship. I know we keep trying to gin up reasons to attack Iran since the Monty Python-esque Speedboat Liars for Truth were exposed, but why are we re-running this old bunch of crap?
Gen. David Petraeus disclosed the reversal to reporters after a meeting with President Bush who was visiting troops in Kuwait.

"In this year, EFPs have gone up, actually, over the last 10 days by a factor of two or three, and frankly we're trying to determine why that might be," Petraeus said.

Ah... Thats why. Bush is making Petraeus say it in order to increase tensions with Iran. Its incredible that CNN just gobbles these stories up. Is it possible that someone at CNN could use google just once before buying hook, line and sinker into one of these bullshit fantasies fueled by Dick Cheney's imagination and war lust.

These devices are very simple to manufacture. The Iraqi's rebuild Mercedes Benz's, I think creating a copper disk isn't that much of a stretch and why ship something a 1,000 miles when you can make it in Uncle Ahmed's machine shop down the street?
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Thursday, January 10, 2008

Navy Fudged Speedboat Video


This whole thing sounded hoakey to me. How did we get the video? Some sailor with a youtube account?

We're saying that we cannot make a direct connection to the boats there," said the spokesperson. "It could have come from the shore, from another ship passing by. However, it happened in the middle of all the very unusual activity, so as we assess the information and situation, we still put it in the total aggregate of what happened Sunday morning. I guess we're not saying that it absolutely came from the boats, but we're not saying it absolutely didn't.

Yes, and all our base must belong to you now. Did the Iranians fart in our general direction too? What did Atrios call it Government by Children?
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Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Your “Round'-The-Way” Vocabulary Phrase Of The Week:

“WOLF TICKET”

Just Ask Dear Sweet Emily...oh, never mind!—NOT!

WOLF TICKET: The phrase wolf ticket is a corruption of woof ticket, an African American slang expression for the practice of verbal intimidation, ”sellin' (or passin' out) wolf tickets,” that was misinterpreted. Over time, the misnomer has become accepted terminology in some quarters.

-------------------------------------

“Selling wolf tickets” is the act of engaging in threatening or intimidating verbal aggression, usually without the intent of doing actual physical harm. In West African and African-American cultures, verbal sparring and physical displays traditionally were employed as proxies for physical violence to preserve life and maintain peace and order. Woofin' also can be a means of “calling someone out,” of challenging an opponent to a verbal or physical match.


As we've been discussing a little bit of slang terminology and all that downpage a piece, colloquial words and phrases have been a' buzzin' in my head much of the day. The phrase “Wolf Ticket” is one that Black folks of a certain age used up until about twenty years or so ago. If you were on the playground, or on the corner, or a stoop, and some punk-ass clown was just flappin' his lips about all the stuff he was gonna do to “X” person, and you knew he was all about bullshit with his reasoning and swaggering, that fool was basically selling a “Wolf Ticket”.

Especially if the idiot later had to do a public backdown.

Yesterday ladies and gentlemen, some verrrry prominent people got busted selling “Wolf Tickets”.

From The Times yesterday afternoon:

WASHINGTON, Dec. 3 — A new assessment by American intelligence agencies concludes that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that the program remains on hold, contradicting an assessment two years ago that Tehran was working inexorably toward building a bomb.

The conclusions of the new assessment are likely to be explosive in the middle of tense international negotiations aimed at getting Iran to halt its nuclear energy program, and in the middle of a presidential campaign during which a possible military strike against Iran’s nuclear program has been discussed.

The assessment, a National Intelligence Estimate that represents the consensus view of all 16 American spy agencies, states that Tehran’s ultimate intentions about gaining a nuclear weapon remain unclear, but that Iran’s “decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military costs.”


Now remember these infamous howls?

“I’ve told people that if you're interested in avoiding World War III,” said the President. ”It seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them from have the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon.”


“Arooooooooo!” to the second power!

“Our country, and the entire international community, cannot stand by as a terror-supporting state fulfills its grandest ambitions,” Cheney said in a speech to the Washington Institute for Near East Studies.

He said Iran's efforts to pursue technology that would allow them to build a nuclear weapon are obvious and that “the regime continues to practice delay and deceit in an obvious effort to buy time.”

If Iran continues on its current course, Cheney said the U.S. and other nations are “prepared to impose serious consequences."”


Prune-faced, old Mildew Wolf let loose his hoarse little howl reaaaaaal early in the game too:

“WASHINGTON - A prominent Democratic senator urged the Bush administration to directly engage Iran over its suspected nuclear weapons program and that preemptive military force should not be ruled out.

"I don't want to saber rattle, but I wouldn't take anything off the table," said Senator Joe Lieberman...

-------------------------------

But he told defense reporters Iran “is on a path to develop a very significant nuclear weapons program” and is working hard to develop missiles with ranges capable of striking targets in Europe as well as the Middle East.


And rounding out the minyan of mini-dicked machismo is just who you'd suspect:

In October, speaking to the Republican Jewish Coalition, Mr. Giuliani said: “As we all know, Iran is seeking nuclear weapons, and they’re threatening to use them. If I’m president of the United States, I guarantee you we will never find out what they will do if they get nuclear weapons, because they’re not going to get nuclear weapons.”


You know, when people said to folks like these four lily-livered assclowns that caution should be observed because of the “debacle” of the wholesale swallowing of the lie-filled, administration massaged, bullshit faulty intelligence used to justify war with Iraq, said folks pooh-poohed those concerns and madly rattled sabers like seizure-addled, empty suits of armor.

Now we come to find that those concerns were well founded. Iraq had apparently dialed their offensive nuclear plans back years ago, in spite of the “I-am-too-tough!”, bantam-rooster rhetoric from Ahmadinejad.

I will say this bluntly. It is the rankest nadir of evil to cavalierly play “tough guy” with the lives of American soldiers. They are not expendable pawns to be thrown away willy-fucking-nilly. And these above noted combat-ducking skunks were perfectly willing to burn the lives of said soldiers over the sketchiest, bully-boy posturing. Bush and his people sat on the NIE report for almost a year, hoping to pressure the compilers of it to see things “The Cheney Way”, and use those findings as an impetus to go to war, throwing more of America's sons and daughters, and potentially the lives of millions of innocent Iranian civilians, who matter less than an amoeba to them— on the pyre of egomania and messianic, “new world order” crazythink.

It takes a special, demonic kind of hubris for a draft-dodging frat boy, a system-gaming quintuple-deferment-nabbing coward, and a couple of sanctimonious, deferment-hungry scolds to practically salivate at the idea of sending somebody else's kids into death's maw for shits, giggles and nubbin-dicked over-compensation.

But that's exactly what they did. Along with their aides de camp in the pundit class like William (“Let someone else get bloody”) Kristol and the near entirety of the wingnut blogosphere—punkass chickenhawks all in a row. They, as a whole care not a whit about the lives of people beyond themselves. Sacrifice for thee, but not for my rubber-chicken munching, ball-going ass. These are evil people. Evil, death-horny “people”. And this exposure of the bogusness of the Iran intelligence they were so furiously beating off to confirms it without a doubt. My God..the last time I saw people so proud and arrogant about being so horribly wrong, 3,882 American soldiers got pine-boxed home, another 29,451 were wounded, and hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians in a faraway land who “threw flowers at our feet” got themselves D-E-A-D for their trouble. The next time one of these war-pimping fuckers lets the line “Support The Troops”, or “Bringing Democracy” ooze from their venomous lips, may Almighty God, Yahweh, or a random, non-denominational thundercloud just lightning-strike them dead in their hypocritical teeth.

I mean, I know selling “Wolf Tickets” is pretty damned easy for people who've never had to lift a soft, non-worked finger in their miserable lives and have always relied on someone else doing all the fighting for them...but this ain't a fucking game of Stratego we're talking about here. It's real people who bleed, and die, and are never seen again once nutjob, eliminationist think-tankers and their administration counterparts' neo-Crusade and “glass parking lot” fantasies of a peaceful, perfect Mid-East comes true.

They don't understand that, though. The President just got through grumping, hissing and finger-pointing his way through a press conference where after his “Wolf Ticket” selling was exposed for all to see by the truth, he continued to jump bad and as we say nowadays in lieu of “Wolf Ticket”, “pop shit”.

I remember a loudmouth dude years ago on my Junior High playground selling “Wolf Tickets” about how he was gonna do this, and he was gonna do that to some other guy he was running down just because he could. We'd all tired pretty much of his yammering until from nowhere...or more factually, a school window a couple of stories above us, a large cup of lunchroom pudding exploded against the back of this clown's head, neck and back—“BLAP!” He turned to where the pudding cup came from—“What the fuck”-ing to beat the band, when somebody from behind the handball court wall chucked an open container of milk at him too—“BLAP!” again.

Loudmouth whipped his head around the other way now, as we all laughed our best “Fat Albert and The Cosby Kids” gang-laugh at the discredited, pudding-and-milk-soaked charlatan.

Dubya...I may not get my lightning-bolt dream to come true, but, uh...you may wanna get a Handi-Wipe or two.

That NIE-brand pudding and milk you've got on you will leave a nasty stain if you let it set too long.

UPDATE:

One of our frequent commenters here calls attention to something in comments, and I must say was ahead of the curve on the point some of our well-paid pundit “thinkers” are now saying 24 hours after he first noted it at his own blog. Props to The Wanderer:

“After a while, as the legend of the Boy Who Cried Wolf will tell you, a person's lies diminish in influence to unattractive returns.. Sounding the drumbeat for war against Iran because of its WMD program rang hollow with many of us because of the abject and utter failure of the Bushies to find any WMDs in Iraq (which I beg to remind the wingnuts in the audience, was the first reason for invading that country).

Now, with new evidence and a new assessment by the 16 US intelligence agencies, you can expect denials and spin galore from the White House, and the corpulent bulk of Dick Cheney, like Falstaff "larding the lean earth with his footsteps," rampaging through the corridors of certain buildings in Langley and Washington leaving blood and entrails in his wake.

One may wonder, "Why would the intel community throw the Administration under the bus like this?"

Simple answer: The intel community got thrown under the bus by the Bushies post-9/11 and were blamed for the Iraqi WMD thing. The notion that the intel was cherry-picked, marketed and spun to fit peoples' fears was silently swept aside.

Moral: Don't mess with the bureaucracy; they can do terrible things to you.”


He nails it. And gives me a chance to deploy this piece of art again:



True that.
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Thursday, October 25, 2007

Rejecting Theological Thinking: CJCS Mullen Gets Real With Cheney


CNO Adm Mike Mulllen aboard the USS Pasadena (SSN 752) Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, May 7, 2007
U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Ben Gonzales

“The ground forces are not broken, but they are breakable.”

The New York Times Magazine (By Ron Suskind, Published: October 17, 2004)

Faith, Certainty and the Presidency of George W. Bush

I had a meeting with a senior adviser to Bush. He expressed the White House's displeasure, and then he told me something that at the time I didn't fully comprehend -- but which I now believe gets to the very heart of the Bush presidency.

The aide said that guys like me were ''in what we call the reality-based community,'' which he defined as people who ''believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.'' I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism. He cut me off. ''That's not the way the world really works anymore,'' he continued. ''We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality -- judiciously, as you will -- we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.''
By the time you become the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, you don't buy into airy-fairy west-coast bullshit about creating your own realities.

I leave aside here, the very valid Many-Worlds conversation from quantum physics, and the equally valid Autopoetic neuro-biology theories advanced by Humberto Maturana (From Being to Doing) currently doing to biology what Einstein did to physics; making it recursive by demonstrating when an Observer is present, the wave-form function collapses, leaving a world literally caused by the collapsing of the wave-form.

This is not what I'm talking about, and I assure you, it was not what the quote senior adviser to Bush unquote was talking about back in 2004 in The Times Magazine article. I doubt the senior adviser had ever even completed calculus, let alone understood how wave form functions worked. But I'll bet dollars to donuts -- not resorting to cliché, that's an actual bet I'm offering -- the smarmy unnamed bastard believed in the New Age bullshit about literally creating new realities. Either through religious fundamentalism -- quite possibly, or through a weekend "I am responsible for my own experience" LGAT course.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Mike Mullen (nominated June 28, 2007) doesn't buy into "create your own reality" bullshit. He wants something done, he does it himself, gives an order, or makes a request.

He doesn't: "I take responsibility for my space and create a world which works for everyone in which I go deep and produce a result which causes that which I promise to occur reliably, moving the future I've declared into the present moment, thus causing my declared intention to be realized, inside my commitment for being responsible to my oath to the Constitution of the United States of America, which declaration I am continuously bringing forth from the future into the present now, thereby creating new historical realities consistent with my fundamental declaration, responsibilities, and accountabilities."

*grins*

Really, he's not doing that. No one in the Navy does that. Or the Army or Marines.

What CJCS Adm. Mike Mullen is doing, is standing up to Dick Cheney, who does seem to think he can create realities.

First, from the VPOTUS (Very Pompous & Officially The Ugly Sociopath-in-charge)
New York Times

Vice President Dick Cheney issued a pointed warning to Iran on Sunday, calling the government in Tehran “a growing obstacle to peace in the Middle East” and promising “serious consequences” if the government there does not abandon its nuclear program.

The remarks, just days after President Bush suggested that a nuclear-armed Iran could lead to “World War III,” amounted to Part II of a one-two punch from the administration at a moment when it is trying to persuade its allies in Europe to impose stiffer sanctions on Tehran. Those efforts grew more complicated on Saturday when Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator resigned on the eve of crucial talks with Europe.

“The Iranian regime needs to know that if it stays on its present course, the international community is prepared to impose serious consequences,” Mr. Cheney said, without specifying what those might be. “The United States joins other nations in sending a clear message: We will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”

Mr. Bush has repeatedly said the administration would not “tolerate” a nuclear-armed Iran. But during a news conference on Wednesday, the president went further, saying of Iran: “If you’re interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon.”

That distinction — having the knowledge to make a nuclear weapon, as opposed to actually having a weapon — is one the administration has not made in the past. David Makovsky, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute who moderated a panel discussion before and after Mr. Cheney’s speech, said the vice president also seemed to draw a new red line when, instead of saying it is “not acceptable” for Iran to have a nuclear weapon, he said the world “will not allow” it.

“The first is a condition,” Mr. Makovsky said. “The second is a commitment.”
Tough talk from a chickenhawk, an an old man with a bad heart and the balls of a coward.

When he could have gone himself -- yes, yes, it is well know, BUT IT DESERVES TO BE SAID OVER AND OVER AGAIN -- Dick "the Coward-Hearted" Cheney cut and run, having "other priorities."

Now he wants to set the middle-East aflame in nuclear fire over a sea of oil, and ka-CHING, watch the oil stocks and his Haliburton shares go straight to the moon, Alice! ...over the burning corpses of the dead.

Fuck that.
The New York Times

The new chairman, Adm. Mike Mullen, expressed deep concerns that the long counterinsurgency missions in Iraq and Afghanistan have so consumed the military that the Army and Marine Corps may be unprepared for a high-intensity war against a major adversary.

He rejected the counsel of those who might urge immediate attacks inside Iran to destroy nuclear installations or to stop the flow of explosives that end up as powerful roadside bombs in Iraq or Afghanistan, killing American troops.

With America at war in two Muslim countries, he said, attacking a third Islamic nation in the region “has extraordinary challenges and risks associated with it.” The military option, he said, should be a last resort.

“We’re in a conflict in two countries out there right now,” he added. “We have to be incredibly thoughtful about the potential of in fact getting into a conflict with a third country in that part of the world.”
This man and the remainder of the Joint Chiefs, clearly are standing between Dick Cheney, George Bush, and war with Iran.

READ THE INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT.

Hold the line Admiral. Hold the bleeding line.


h/t Josh Marshall, Talking Points Memo: New JCS Chair: Cheney's Whacked
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Monday, October 22, 2007

The Secret History of the Impending War

Esquire has an amazing article up.

It's long, and it's not just another, 'hey, there's a possible war with Iran' article. It lays out the last four years.

I'm giving you a few paras -- then go read.

You know how in your worst imaginations, you worried the Bush Administration was really much worse than you thought they were, that Cheney was TRULY crazy?

Turns out, he really is.

Also turns out, the whole war with Iran thing? Iran has been begging us since the day after 9/11 to negotiate unconditionally, everything on the table. Their nuclear program. Iran telling us specifically where all of the terrorists in the middle east were, during our war with Iraq. Anything we wanted. All of it, on the fucking table, over and over again.

We're talking a literal negotiating table. Talks were held. Actual talks.

The Office of the Vice President turned EVERYTHING down. He and people in his office refused everything Iran offered the United States.

Why?

Because it isn't enough for Iran to offer all this in exchange for anything. Got that?

It isn't enough for us to WIN. Our opponent has to LOSE. AAAAAAARGH!!!!!

In Dick "INSANE GUY" Cheney's world, the Iranians had to see the light and do everything because "it was the right thing to do."

No, I'm truly not kidding. That is why we turned down the offer from Iran to give up their nuclear program, to identify all terror activity in the middle east, and a bunch of other shit, really anything we wanted. We lost it all because it wasn't offered with absolutely no strings attached like they were the fucking British helping their best friends in the whole world.

Welcome to the Axis of Evil.

Esquire

The Secret History of the Impending War with Iran That the White House Doesn't Want You to Know

This is what Leverett and Mann fear will happen: The diplomatic effort in the United Nations will fail when it becomes clear that Russia's and China's geopolitical ambitions will not accommodate the inconvenience of energy sanctions against Iran. Without any meaningful incentive from the U.S. to be friendly, Iran will keep meddling in Iraq and installing nuclear centrifuges. This will trigger a response from the hard-liners in the White House, who feel that it is their moral duty to deal with Iran before the Democrats take over American foreign policy. "If you get all those elements coming together, say in the first half of '08," says Leverett, "what is this president going to do? I think there is a serious risk he would decide to order an attack on the Iranian nuclear installations and probably a wider target zone."

This would result in a dramatic increase in attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq, attacks by proxy forces like Hezbollah, and an unknown reaction from the wobbly states of Afghanistan and Pakistan, where millions admire Iran's resistance to the Great Satan. "As disastrous as Iraq has been," says Mann, "an attack on Iran could engulf America in a war with the entire Muslim world."

Mann and Leverett believe that none of this had to be.
*shudders*

Go. Read.

Frankly, I'm starting to think Treason is the operative word here. We're long past High Crimes. This isn't simple incompetence or an ideological point of view. I have to start wondering if Dick Cheney isn't intentionally setting the middle east afire from one end to the other to send oil to $300-$400 a barrel, in order to make his own portfolio and that of his patrons blow through the roof. Halliburton would triple in value as would oil stocks. It's time to ask a Special Prosecutor to look at Dick Cheney on the grounds of Treason.

In the meantime, the Joint Chiefs and The President of Russia hold the line against a madman occupying the office of the Vice President, and his buddy-pal, yet another sociopath in the Oval.

Let us hope we make it fourteen months to the election -- and another four beyond that to the inauguration, without a genuine constitutional crisis. Because it ain't like it's past these fuckers to let the election happen, then start a full-out war during the 100 days of the President-elect. You know, just for kicks.

Come on JCS... hold the goddamn line.
There's more...

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Boom Chicka Boom: Cat's in the Cradle



Russia Launches Successful Test Of Ballistic Missile

Big yellow air-raid sirens all over Tucson when I was growing up.

Every Saturday, 1 PM they'd start low and WAIL up to a HIGH TONE and HOOOOOOOLD, I said, HOOOOOOOLD, we're not done yet, it's HOOOOOOOLD..OOOOLD..OOOL..OOL and down, down, down she goes and where she stops no.

Okay, enough. Done now. Everyone, back to work.

Cold war.

Plus, as an added bonus, Tucson had Davis-Monthan Air Force Base with its B-52 bombers (and their Special Weapons), Plus THERE'S MORE.

We had three SAC Titan ICBM Missile Wings literally encircling Tucson.

Yeah, we were a TARGET with a capital T, and that rhymes with you're fucking dead. But we don't talk about it, because it upsets Mrs. Clag and Mrs. Crigger.

USA TODAY

The Topol RS-12M rocket hit its intended target on Kamchatka near the Pacific Ocean, the Russian Strategic Missile Forces said in a statement. The launch, from the Plesetsk launch facility in northern Russia, was part of the country's plan to upgrade its ballistic missiles and extend the life of its Topol missiles.

The successful test will allow Russia to maintain the Topol rocket for 21 years, the statement said, significantly more than the original 10 years forecast.
The Cold War is dead.

Long live the Cold War.

Who the hell would have thought I'd be happy to see a Russian missile launch and a former KGB dude hanging with an Iranian guy I can't stand and don't trust, as our last best hope of preventing what I consider to be a clinically sociopath Vice President and his dry-drunk also sociopath and massively incompetent President, from starting a war with Iran which the Joint Chiefs have refused to go to.

I'm not even certain that sentence has a subject.

Anyway, this launch is a good thing. Anything which keeps the Cheney/Bush people away from paying attention to the reality you and I are coupled in, long enough for the rest of us to get out alive and not in a civil or world war, is a very, very good deal.

Note to self. Don't post tired. Is too honest. Also, speaks missing article in sentence. Sound Russian. Da. No laughing, you who hate American. Grrr.
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Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Putin tells Cheney to go fuck himself

Putin is in Tehran, and is sending a message to complete lunatic Dick Cheney.

In a declaration, the countries agreed that none would allow their territories to be used as a base for military strikes against any of the others.
"We should not even think of making use of force in this region," Mr. Putin said

He wants to make it clear to Bughouse Dick that if he moves against Iran there will be consequences. We have seen this whacky topic of invading Iran ebb and flow based on the level of Dick's meds recently. Hopefully this message from Pooty Poot will quiet down the trained monkeys about invading Iran.

Russia is the only country that is helping Iran to realize its nuclear program in a peaceful way, he said.

If you want to keep it that way Richard, keep your trap shut...

There's more...

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Watch and wait


There are some revelations from a recent Time magazine piece. Revelations that tell us a great deal actually. First the obvious:

The U.S. is ceding huge swaths of territory to shaky provincial governments that have to face increasingly powerful Shi'ite militias very much alone.

Small contingents of U.S. soldiers enter Karbala and Najaf only for brief visits with local officials these days, and much of the rest of southern Iraq has no American troops at all.
The U.S. Military can't sustain its current deployment, much less this 'surge'. Secondly, even the Pentagon has figured out we are the targets. They did learn the lesson of Al-Anbar even if the Bush administration won't admit it.

The article also talks about those dreaded Iranian's:
U.S. soldiers are wondering if handlers from Iran's elite security forces have begun schooling and organizing fighters in the very areas American forces nominally control.

Of course it never occurred to anybody that maybe the people who have 3 or 4 years experience with insurgency against the worlds most formidable force would be the ones doing the teaching. Its the Iraqi's who have things to teach the Iranians, not the other way around.

Regardless, lets see what happens to the violence levels in the south in the coming months.
-- time.com
There's more...

Saturday, October 6, 2007

My Other Boyfriend™



I was just reading down Feministe's home page 'cause Zuzu linked us there (*bows three times*) and check out what I found.

Dig this SNL Short. I really had no idea the President of Iran was such a hottie.

Hat tip Feministe.

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Tuesday, October 2, 2007

The U.S. Iranian War


Lets talk about what happens if CheneyBush attacks Iran.

We have about 160,000 troops in country, maybe another 50,000 to 60,000 in Kuwait, etc, etc, and also deployed on ships in the gulf itself. Majority of whom are on their 2nd or 3rd tour of duty. We have a carrier or two in the Gulf and that has to be a significant number of attack aircraft and of course, bombers.

The Iranian regular army stands at 350,000. Their is an additional 125,000 in the Revolutionary Guard and they field a civilian Baseej paramilitary force of up to a million. Yes, a million paramilitary. That's what won them the Iran/Iraq war (1980-1988).

They don't have anywhere near the air strength of the U.S. but they can mobilize Shabab 2's and Shabab 3 rockets. They have a range of up to 1,200 miles. They also have bought rocket-torpedoes from the Russians, mini-subs, lots of mines, and have a large fleet of small fast attack (PT) boats. Did I mention lots of mines. The Iranians are also rumored to have a fairly good pilot-less drone aircraft capability. Supposedly they were able to shadow a U.S. carrier in the gulf for 6 hours some months ago. Clearly their underwater warfare and fast attack capability is well advanced and formidable. From an armchair strategy position I would have to expect them to sink at least 1 U.S. battle carrier. Thats 5,000 men right there.

If war breaks out, the straight of Hormuz will be effectively shut down. The Iranians themselves control 20% of the worlds oil supply. I am not sure how much more would be affected by the closure of the Gulf. I would expect that $100 barrels of oil would seem very, very cheap at that point.

After sinking some of our Navy I expect they then would cross the border. Probably the U.S. would launch tactical nukes. These have a somewhat limited destructive power, not like actual nuclear warheads. So, the Iranians would lose a large portion of there military. However, Its not like they will have a problem finding our central command and control. Its right there in the center of Baghdad.

Our guys would fight hard. They won't be all rested up like the Iranians and we would quickly need resupply which would be slow. I don't think we could fly that much in. The shoulder launched rockets would prohibit slow moving transport planes. On the bright side, we don't have to worry about a fighting withdrawal. There will nowhere to withdrawal to.

There's more...

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Cheney Wants Iran Attack. Lies About WMDs.



“Bomb, bomb, bomb... Bomb Iran.”

Evil Dick (the current Dick, not the smelly nasty dead Dick) wants to off Iran.

Don't matter our very own Department of State wants to play nice.

The Office of the Vice President wants to blow the ever-loving-shit out of them Arabs (Really they're mostly Persians but that's a level of subtly you can't expect from an Administration that can't tell a Sunni from a Shiite), blow the fucking shit out of the Arabs, anyone associating with the Arabs, anyone that looks like an Arab and their mangy mutts too.

(Pop quiz, hotshot: What's the difference between a Shiite and a Sunni -- prep material. And here's the quiz.)

A nice glaze surface glowing shiny like a firefly in the night would be fine. See that shine from space. Teach everyone -- don't try and sell oil for nothing but dollars. Nothing but net? Fuck that.

OIL: Operation Iraqi Liberation. Reusable too 'cause Dirty Dick is campaign-dollar Haliburton green. Operation Iran Liberation. Oil me up & oil me down. I'm the OIL man. Can you dig it? We're OIL.

Oil will keep sellin' for greenbacks. The Iranian Oil Bourse can go fuck itself.

(We've got a whole post coming on Oil, the U.S. dollar, and the coming great Chinese Depression. Hold on to your organs of reproduction kiddies. Life as you know it is a'changing.)

But not tonight. Tonight we're posting other stuff. Like that Israeli Bombing Run into Syria?

First it was nukes. You knew they were lying, but they kept talking and talking -- nukes, nukes, nukes. Hmmm... where have I heard that bullshit before and from whom?

Fucking Cheney wants to hit Iran and he doesn't care how he does it. Check this:

NY Daily News

Cheney allegedly considered asking Israel to do the dirty work of attacking a central Iranian nuclear facility in hopes of inciting a war, Newsweek magazine reported yesterday.

The revelation of the White House's alleged hawkish behind-the-scenes thinking comes just days after Iran's deputy air force commander warned his country was prepared to retaliate if Israel "makes a silly mistake."

Still, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has called for the annihilation of Israel, publicly rejects the notion his country is headed for a faceoff with the United States.

"It's wrong to think that Iran and the U.S. are walking toward war. Who says so? Why should we go to war? There is no war in the offing," Ahmadinejad said in an interview aired last night on CBS' "60 Minutes."

When asked if he was hellbent on getting a nuke, Ahmadinejad answered with a "firm no."

"You have to appreciate we don't need a nuclear bomb," said Ahmadinejad, who arrived in New York yesterday to speak at the UN General Assembly. "We don't need that. What need do we have for a bomb?"

U.S. officials have suggested Iran's main goal is to develop killer nukes while hiding behind a bogus claim that its uranium-enrichment program is for civilian energy purposes only.

The White House has also accused Iran of supplying Iraqi militants with training and weapons to fight American troops.

Newsweek reported that Cheney's former Middle East adviser David Wurmser told a small group several months ago that the vice president had brainstormed ways to quash Iran's nuclear hopes by luring it into war.

"Cheney had been mulling the idea of pushing for limited Israeli missile strikes against the Iranian nuclear site at Natanz - and, perhaps, other sites - in order to provoke Tehran into lashing out," Wurmser, who stepped down from his advisory post last month, reportedly told the group.

Such a strike would give the White House an excuse to launch attacks against military and other nuclear targets in Iran.

Citing two unidentified sources, Newsweek claimed it has corroborated Wurmser's remarks.

Wurmser's wife, Meyrav Wurmser of the neoconservative Hudson Institute think tank, told the magazine its claims were untrue.
The networks don't even want Condoleezza Rice on their Sunday blow-me shows any more.

Cheney's war-mongers have an edge over State in the propaganda wars.

Has the President sided with Cheney? Not yet. 'Cause Cheney keeps fucking up the spin. The truth is getting out WAY too fast to stick past the 25% born fanatics. (Born fanatic = born-again. Duh.)

GWB is totally & completely drunk all the time freakin' about his "place in history" with Bush 41 and worse, Mummy, whispering in his ear about being bad.

You know it's a hard day for America (and the rest of the world) when our best hope of avoiding Dirty "why it's just like a penis, but smaller" Dick's palace coup is Barbara "I'm his wife, dammit, not his mother" Bush. When we lived in New Hampshire in 91-92, we used to travel up to the coast of Maine. Some nights my wife and I would drink in town just a few miles from the summer White House. You hear stories when people are drinking. Of her. Servants displeasing her and... Look, there's no way to prove anything and she's the former First Lady. All I'm saying is, people say some of the hired help never came home after her parties. And Mrs. Bush knows how to work the wood chipper.

Dirty Dick simply doesn't have the backing yet to pull a war off. The Chiefs are completely against yet a third war. So is State. So is Defense (separate from the Chiefs.) So is Homeland Security. And the incoming AG. The entire fucking Cabinet minus "his" guys, the kool-aid drinkers. Cheney's only hope is his very own Gulf of Tonkin. Like a boy, playing with fancy toy Tonkin trucks. Which is precisely what he's trying to do -- get Israeli to start something we'll finish or get a young pilot of ours to blunder into an attack and trigger an Iranian response.

Everyone knows what Cheney's up to. What does a teenage boy want? Duh. What does Dick Cheney want? Fucking duh.

People (bloggers, hurray!, and the traditional media) are all over big Dick's lies like a condom on my daughter's boyfriend. As in damn straight & every single time. (You hear me girl? No, not you; the other daughter. [Multitasking Daddy™ from Mattel. "That was such über-pwnage." Mad skillz. Kekeke!!!])
Raw Story

Israel did not strike a nuclear weapons facility in Syria on Sept. 6, instead striking a cache of North Korean missiles, current and former intelligence officials say.

American intelligence sources familiar with key events leading up to the Israeli air raid tell RAW STORY that what the Syrians actually had were North Korean No-Dong missiles, possibly located at a site in either the city of Musalmiya in the northern part of Syria or further south around the city of Hama.

While reports have alleged the US provided intelligence to Israel or that Israel shared their intelligence with the US, sources interviewed for this article believe that neither is accurate.

By most accounts of intelligence officials, both former and current, Israel and the US both were well aware of the activities of North Korea and Syria and their attempts to chemically weaponize the No-Dong missile. It therefore remains unclear why an intricate story involving evidence of a Syrian nuclear weapons program and/or enriched uranium was put out to press organizations.

The North Korean missiles -- described as "legacy" by one source and "older generation" by another -- were not nuclear arms.

Vincent Cannistraro, Director of Intelligence Programs for the National Security Council under President Ronald Reagan and Chief of Operations at the Central Intelligence Agency's Counterterrorism Center under President George H. W. Bush, said Sunday that what the Israelis hit was "absolutely not a nuclear weapons facility."

The No-Dong 1 missile is a redesigned SCUD-C, which the Syrians are alleged to have acquired in the mid-1990s according to some estimations, while others say perhaps as late as 2000. According to the Federation of American Scientists, the No-Dong has a potential range/payload capacity of 1,000-1,300 km/700-1,000 kg.

The chemical explosion is believed to have included a Sarin nerve agent and made the area around the blast dangerous even after the fire from the explosion had been extinguished. The United Nations Chemical Weapons Convention treaty of 1993 outlawed the stockpiling of Sarin, but neither Syria nor North Korea are signatories to the treaty.

Some believe that the Office of the Vice President is continuing to battle any attempts at diplomacy made by the US State Department in an effort to ensure no alternative but a military solution to destabilize and strike Iran, using Syria's alleged nuclear weapons program and close relations with Iran as a possible pretext.

A Sept. 16 piece in the London Sunday Times alleged the attack proved Israel could penetrate Iran's air defenses.

"By its actions, Israel showed it is not interested in waiting for diplomacy to work where nuclear weapons are at stake," reporter Uzi Mahnaimi wrote. "The Israelis proved they could penetrate the Syrian air defence [sic] system, which is stronger than the one protecting Iranian nuclear sites."
One more time please.
It therefore remains unclear why an intricate story involving evidence of a Syrian nuclear weapons program and/or enriched uranium was put out to press organizations.
Sing it again now...
It therefore remains unclear why an intricate story involving evidence of a Syrian nuclear weapons program and/or enriched uranium was put out to press organizations.
It answers itself, doesn't it. Not a question.

Dick Cheney wants to off Iran.

Lying about WMDs worked once. Why not again?
There's more...

Monday, September 10, 2007

Wa-Po Mo-Fo



Washington Post Up To Old Tricks

For several years I've been talking to family and friends re my concerns Bush/Cheney would take us into Iran. In July I extended the conversation into a Roundtable discussion on the future with my colleagues here at the Group News Blog.

We agree that war with Iran is on the table.

Last time as you'll recall, the war with Iraq was rolled out through a coordinated push through all of the right-wing channels starting shortly after Labor Day, continuing till they had sufficient public support to start feeding that