Showing posts with label Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Analysis. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Right Brain Left Brain



Which Side Of Your Brain Do You Default To?

Jump over to this great test at The Daily Telegraph.

Do you see the dancer turning clockwise or anti-clockwise?

The Daily Telegraph

If clockwise, then you use more of the right side of the brain and vice versa.

Most of us would see the dancer turning anti-clockwise though you can try to focus and change the direction; see if you can do it.

LEFT BRAIN FUNCTIONS
uses logic
detail oriented
facts rule
words and language
present and past
math and science
can comprehend
knowing
acknowledges
order/pattern perception
knows object name
reality based
forms strategies
practical
safe

RIGHT BRAIN FUNCTIONS
uses feeling
"big picture" oriented
imagination rules
symbols and images
present and future
philosophy & religion
can "get it" (i.e. meaning)
believes
appreciates
spatial perception
knows object function
fantasy based
presents possibilities
impetuous
risk taking
Well?

I defaulted to right.

Then got caught up in a bunch of sorting through blogs, looked up and was in left.

Worked really hard... and couldn't change it back. So I relaxed. And that didn't do a damn thing either. Tried looking at photos, thinking big thoughts.

Nothing.

Eventually I figured out the trick, and now I can just flip the dancing girl back and forth, back and forth. *grins*

You?
There's more...

Thursday, October 4, 2007

He Saved The World (No Cheerleader)


photo Giyori Antoine/Corbis

Didn't Do a Damn Thing Either

On September 26, 1983, Lt. Col. Stanislav Petrov, the Duty Officer in the Hole -- the secret bunker outside Moscow monitoring the world for nuclear launches -- choose to do nothing.

It just didn't feel right.

The alarm said there were five missiles inbound from the United States. Lt. Col. Stanislav Petrov bet the future of his country -- and a worldwide nuclear counterstrike -- on his own personal best judgment. That the alarm ringing loudly simply didn't make sense.

Wired Magazine

Given the heightened tensions between the two countries -- the alarm coincided with the beginning of provocative NATO military exercises and barely three weeks after the Russians shot down a South Korean airliner that had wandered into Soviet air space -- Petrov could have been forgiven for believing the signal was accurate. The electronic maps flashing around him didn't do anything to ease the stress of the moment.

But Petrov smelled a rat. "I had a funny feeling in my gut" that this was a false alarm. For one thing, the report indicated that only five missiles had been fired. Had the United States been launching an actual nuclear attack, he reasoned, ICBMs would be raining down on them.

"I didn't want to make a mistake. I made a decision, and that was it." Petrov's gut feeling was due in large part to his lack of faith in the Soviet early-warning system, which he subsequently described as "raw." He reported it as a false alarm to his superiors, and hoped to hell he was right.

Petrov was initially praised for his cool head but later came under criticism and was, for a while, made the scapegoat for the false alarm. Further investigation, however, found that the satellite in question had picked up the sun's reflection off the cloud tops and somehow interpreted that as a missile launch.

As we count down to war with Iran, I just have to keep hoping -- boy, that's a word I really hate using when it comes to nuclear weapons, carrier groups, and Armies -- that the Joint Chiefs and their immediate subordinates haven't lost sight of how much sense it sometimes makes to...

Just. Do. Nothing.

Sometimes it can even save the world. (Cheerleaders included.)
There's more...

Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Justice Clarence Thomas: Victim, Liar, Crybaby



Still Crying After All These Years

We couldn't take our eyes off the television.

I lived in Amherst, New Hampshire. My wife, our three girls and I often climbed in the station wagon and drove to Kennebunkport, Maine, just below President Bush's massive estate out at the end of the long spit behind the fortified gates, the Coast Guard always patrolling off-shore.

The girls would play in the tidal pools and pick up sea shells, getting massively soaked and covered in sand. My wife and I ate lobster rolls and dreamed of ruling the world.

As the day drew old we'd wrap tired wet sandy girls in towels, pack them into their seats, buckle-up, and drive the several hours back home. Politics (well, sex & money first) were the usual topic. Who was going to win the next year (we hadn't even heard of Bill Clinton I don't think; well, I had of course, having lived in Arkansas, but not as a Presidential candidate). And now, this Clarence Thomas guy.

His nomination was tied 7-7 out of committee to the floor, till something strange happened. A woman named Anita Hill came forward and said she'd been harassed by Thomas. I stayed home and watched on television. No money coming in... but I had to know. Best soap opera since Watergate.

Thomas made it in. Barely.

Justice Thomas recently released his autobiography.

abc news

"The mob I now faced carried no ropes or guns," Thomas wrote. "Its weapons were smooth-tongued lies spoken into microphones and printed on the front pages of America's newspapers. It no longer sought to break the bodies of its victims. Instead it devastated their reputations and drained away their hope.

"But it was a mob all the same, and its purpose — to keep the black man in his place — was unchanged." Thomas wrote. "Strip away the fancy talk and you were left with the same old story: You can't trust black men around women. This one may be a big-city judge with a law degree from Yale, but when you get right down to it, he's just like the rest of them. They all do that sort of thing whenever they get the chance, and no woman would ever lie about it."

As he describes his emotions, his words of rage literally leap of the page. When he enters the hearing room and takes his seat, he levels his own assault.

"This is a circus. It is a national disgrace," his voice in tightly focused anger. "And from my standpoint, as a black American, as far as I am concerned, it is a high-tech lynching for uppity blacks who in any way deign to think for themselves, to do for themselves, to have different ideas, and it is a message that, unless you kowtow to an old order, this is what will happen to you, you will be lynched, destroyed, caricatured by a committee of the U.S. Senate rather than hung from a tree."

Four days later, the Senate voted to confirm Thomas to the Supreme Court, by the narrowest margin in history, 52-48. Thomas was home when the Senate voted, and Virginia asked if he wanted to listen to the roll call. "Absolutely not," he responded. "I don't care what they do."

He decided to take a long hot bath to relax, and he was in the tub when Virginia's assistant called. Virginia hung up the phone, went into the bathroom and told Thomas he had been confirmed.

"'Whoop-dee-damn-doo,' I said, sliding deeper into the comforting water," Thomas wrote of the conversation. "Mere confirmation, even to the Supreme Court, seemed pitifully small compensation for what had been done to me."

Oh yeah... That's what happened to him.

Bullllllll... Shit.

I'm forty-eight years old, this all happened sixteen years ago, but even I can remember it didn't go down that way.

Fortunately Professor Anita Hill of Brandeis University straightens us.

New York Times

I stand by my testimony.

Justice Thomas has every right to present himself as he wishes in his new memoir, “My Grandfather’s Son.” He may even be entitled to feel abused by the confirmation process that led to his appointment to the Supreme Court.

But I will not stand by silently and allow him, in his anger, to reinvent me.

Justice Thomas offers a litany of unsubstantiated representations and outright smears ... A number of independent authors have shown those attacks to be baseless. What’s more, their reports draw on the experiences of others who were familiar with Mr. Thomas’s behavior, and who came forward after the hearings. It’s no longer my word against his.

Justice Thomas’s characterization of me is also hobbled by blatant inconsistencies. He claims, for instance, that I was a mediocre employee who had a job in the federal government only because he had “given it” to me. He ignores the reality: I was fully qualified to work in the government, having graduated from Yale Law School (his alma mater, which he calls one of the finest in the country), and passed the District of Columbia Bar exam, one of the toughest in the nation.

Fortunately, we have made progress since 1991. Today, when employees complain of abuse in the workplace, investigators and judges are more likely to examine all the evidence and less likely to simply accept as true the word of those in power. But that could change. Our legal system will suffer if a sitting justice’s vitriolic pursuit of personal vindication discourages others from standing up for their rights.
That's what I saw on television sixteen years ago. A dignified woman, laying everything she had on the line to battle a man who refused to tell the truth.

Justice Thomas -- Mr. Thomas then -- lied during his conformation also.
Washington Post

Stare decisis is a fancy Latin term that stands for a bedrock proposition of U.S. law: that the Supreme Court will uphold precedent and not disturb settled law without special justification. As Justice Thurgood Marshall explained for the court in 1986, stare decisis is the "means by which we ensure that the law will not merely change erratically, but will develop in a principled and intelligible fashion."

Four years ago, Rehnquist echoed Marshall in a case that reaffirmed the Miranda warning given before police interrogations, stating that stare decisis "carries such persuasive force that we have always required a departure from precedent to be supported by some 'special justification.' "

Stare decisis is not and should not be an ironclad rule -- otherwise Plessy v. Ferguson, which upheld segregation, would still be on the books. But almost everyone agrees that respect for the doctrine is indispensable for a Supreme Court justice. As Thomas himself explained at his confirmation hearing, "stare decisis provides continuity to our system, it provides predictability, and in our process of case-by-case decision making, I think it is a very important and critical concept."
Huffington Post

It turns out, of course, that the alarming character traits Anita Hill observed in her boss Clarence Thomas were nothing compared to the nutcase judicial temperament he has since revealed. At his confirmation hearing, Thomas -- like Marshall before him, and Roberts and Alito after him -- paid tribute to stare decisis, the importance of precedent in guiding Supreme Court decisions. But no less an authority than arch-conservative fellow Associate Justice Antonin Scalia told Thomas' biographer, Ken Foskett, that Thomas "doesn't believe in stare decisis, period." If you think nutcase is too strong a word to summarize that view, listen again to Scalia, as quoted in this Terry Gross interview with Jeff Toobin about his new Supreme Court book, The Nine:

Mr. TOOBIN: Clarence Thomas is not just the most conservative member of the Rehnquist court or the Roberts court. He's the most conservative justice to serve on the court since the 1930s. If you take what Thomas says seriously, if you read his opinions, particularly about issues like the scope of the federal government, he basically thinks that the entire work of the New Deal is unconstitutional. He really believes in a conception of the federal government that hasn't been supported by the justices since Franklin Roosevelt made his appointments to the court. You know, I went to a speech that Justice Scalia gave at a synagogue here in New York a couple of years ago, and someone asked him, `What's the difference between your judicial philosophy and Justice Thomas?' I thought a very good question. And Scalia talked for a while and he said, `Look, I'm a conservative. I'm a texturalist. I'm an originalist. But I'm not a nut.' And I thought that...
GROSS: Meaning that he thinks Thomas is one.
Mr. TOOBIN: Well, that was certainly the implication.
GROSS: Mm-hmm.
Mr. TOOBIN: It was pretty amazing. I mean, Thomas is well outside the mainstream, even of the conservatives on the court.
The Roberts-Scalia-Thomas-Alito-and-sometimes-Kennedy fivesome on the Court today is the closest the country has come to the domination of the third branch of government by the same ideology that gave us the Bush administration and its Congressional and Fourth Estate enablers.
And so we have a man in the highest court of the land who abused a woman and refused to tell the truth, is willing to twist the Constitution he's sworn to protect every direction the law be damned, and lied about that as well.

And now he comes out with a whiny, complaining, moaning, sorry excuse of an autobiography which says, "I'm an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court and all of these bad things... You're making me do them." No wonder he gets along so goddamn well with the Bush administration.

The abuser becomes the, well, a bigger abuser. Victim. Liar. Crybaby.

And oh yeah... Loser.
There's more...

Sunday, September 30, 2007

Growing a Startup



A quick status report... We're GROWING!

Group News Blog made its first post July 1, three months ago tomorrow.

We just broke into the the top 15K List on Technorati which is massively fast growth (there are roughly 8 million blogs ranked on Technorati, plus many unranked.) We have 30K absolute unique visitors as our baseline, and grew by one-third last month.

I've been getting questions as to how GNB is growing so fast, often accompanied with a request I exchange blog links. Primarily, I defer to the concept that "If you write it, they will come" which I deeply believe.

Blogrolling

Steve taught us to keep our Blogroll very limited. We modify our roll occasionally, but we like that it fits completely on one screen. Who is on our blogroll? Blogs we visit all the time, writers we personally like, and an occasional wild card. There are sites on our blogroll I hit 15-20 times a day; the same is true for my colleagues.

How to get on our blogroll? Write amazingly well and post great content. When you start getting lots of links from us, you're likely to end up on our blogroll eventually. If we don't give you links, the next time we reorganize our blogroll, you may well drop off no matter if we're friends or you're a big dog among blogs. GNB bloggers use our blogroll on a daily basis. They are truly our working links.

But how is GNB growing so fast?

Read Paul Graham's essays on startups (all of them; one a day till you're done) and Joel Spolsky's essays on software & business (all of them; one a day till you're done, even the ones which seem to just be about software and you don't understand or care about software. Trust me: a) they're all about growing a business, and b) even the one's which aren't, you'll learn something from.)

I have stuff to say and lessons we've learned about how it is we're growing this fast. Yeah, we are pretty much calling our shots (13 ball in the corner pocket) in the sense that this growth is planned, not accidental.

The details -- the what and how -- of our growth, needs to wait:

  • 'Cause it would be the height of hubris to say we've got it wired, before actually, like um, winning the game,
  • I'm at my absolute physical limit and simply don't have anything left to put into laying out how we're doing what we're doing. There is very specific method to our madness. Often several.
  • I'm keeping semi-accurate notes and once we hit at least the 5K list or better, the 2K Technorati list and 50K absolute unique visitors, and I'm getting regular sleep (and if Mary-Sue ain't in Jail, Pregnant and the Creek Don't Rise), then I'm open to discussing how we got there, and
  • It's the writing, fool.
The GNB Bloggers, my perspective:
  • Hubris brings in a perspective on the war which schools me all the time, plus a deep grasp of international & U.S. politics. He's even better in person. Plus he's a serious foodie. As is his wife.
  • Sara is coaching me on finding a possible fill-in for vacation relief, and gives me notes on my essays. She turns out flawless work with professional ease. She's so good I sometimes hate her.
  • Lower Manhattanite leaves me holding my breath each time he posts. Sometimes I spit up on my keyboard; other times I weep. Sometimes both within minutes.
  • And me.
Each of these people is my friend. How fortunate am I?

Our first quarter is over. Our next quarter is beginning.

We know where we're going and are glad you're here with us. I'll call one of our shots in public: No later than one month from now, Halloween/Nov 1, GNB will be on the Technorati 10K list.

Thank you for an amazing first three months. Here's to a terrific fall quarter.
There's more...

Friday, September 21, 2007

We All Fall Down


(Yes, the bear still gets BIG when you click. BIG.)

When Markets Lose Their Minds

Here's the tease. Go read the whole thing.

PrudentBear

Free market economics is famously predicated on “market rationality,” the idea that each participant in the economy acts as a coolly reasoning “homo economicus” in purchase and investment decisions. Yet as the disintegration of the 1995-2007 credit bubble continues it is becoming more and more obvious that in several areas economic decision-making during this period has been highly irrational. There are no complete solutions to this problem, but there are palliatives.
  • Subprime mortgages themselves exemplify irrational markets, yet the participants’ activities at each stage were economically in their own rational interest:
  • Low income consumers took on mortgages they had no prospect of affording because they believed from the experience of others that house prices would rise sufficiently to bail them out. In any case being often near bankruptcy the potential profit from successful speculation appeared to them greater than the potential loss from default.
  • Mortgage brokers sold subprime mortgages because they got a commission for selling them and were not responsible for the credit risk.
  • Investment banks packaged the subprime mortgages into multiple-tranche mortgage backed securities because they received fat fees for doing so and again had no real responsibility for the credit risk.
  • Rating agencies gave the upper tranches of mortgage debt favorable ratings, because they made a great deal of money from providing ratings for asset backed securities, needed to keep in the favor of the investment banks who brought them this attractive business, and had mathematical models (either their own or the investment banks’) “proving” that the default rate of the securitized mortgages would be low.
  • Investment bank and rating agency mathematicians produced models “proving “ that default rates would be low, ignoring the real-world correlations between defaults on low quality consumer debt, because they were well paid to do so – the alternative was to return to a miserable cheese-paring existence in academia.
  • Finally the investors bought asset backed securities because they could achieve a higher return on them in the short term than their borrowing costs, and could tell their funding sources (in the case of hedge funds) or bosses (in the case of foreign banks) that they were taking very little risk because of the securities’ high rating.
Each step of the process was rational (albeit operating on imperfect information), yet because incentives were hopelessly misaligned, the final result was an irrational market, in which loans that would not be repaid were securitized and sold to investors seeking an above-market return at below market risk, a combination that in the long run ought not to exist without the application of extraordinary intelligence.

In the credit card business, currently equally likely to subside into a slough of defaults, the rationale was a little different. Here the subprime credit card consumer had no rational basis for believing that anything he bought with the card would become sufficiently valuable to pay off the card debt. Instead, the credit card business became a tribute to the power of advertising; by sending out credit card solicitations weekly to every deadbeat in the United States, the card companies were able to persuade consumers that taking on too much debt was a perfectly natural means of acquiring the consumer goods or vacations they craved. “Homo economicus” would have rejected excessive card offers; in the real world unsophisticated consumers are deluded into thinking that credit card debt is manageable, and that their income will increase sufficiently to service it. As with subprime mortgages, credit card lenders would not have been so aggressive if the assets had resided on their balance sheet, but through securitization they too could delude themselves that they were sloughing off the credit risks onto anonymous third parties.

The derivatives market was also an area in which irrationality held full sway. Here the fault was excessive belief in mathematical models. It was attractive to traders and to operating management to pretend that markets were fully stochastic random walks – after all, Nobel prizes had been given for this assertion – and to assess Value at Risk on that basis, ignoring the reality that markets often behave in a highly non-random manner. By doing this, management could claim to investors that risk positions were in reality modest, while traders could bet the future of the institution on gambles that may go spectacularly wrong every few years, but in the meantime keep the investor capital and the bonuses flowing in.
Nothing stays up forever. There's a reason a dollar in Canada is now worth a dollar in the U.S. (You didn't know? Go read that also.) The Canadian buck is equal to the U.S. dollar. Today is should happen (yesterday it was nudging against the tick.)

Gold is up, the Euro is up, the dollar is in the fucking tank.

Nothing lasts. Especially empires founded in inflated petro-dollars backed up by overwhelming military might. Our boy-king has fucking BROKEN our military, so now we can't shove our petro-dollars up the asses of the treasuries of every National Treasury in the world.

No one's pulled the rug out from under us quite yet, because a wounded Cheney can still bite plus everyone still holds literally billions and mega-billions in U.S. treasuries; they'd be causing their own net worth to be fucked. We would -- not might, would -- retaliate against anyone who started against us. But when the whole world starts selling Treasuries.

It doesn't matter much if we're attacked fast (which is what Cheney is geared up for) or nice and slow like the classic story of the Daddy Bull and the Baby Bull on the hill (someone will tell it in comments.) We're getting fucked by everyone this time. The emperor has no clothes left anymore. Because we've revealed in Iraq just how easy it is for a two-bit country to whoop our ass.

So long of course as we're not going to go in and raise them to the fucking ground and kill fucking EVERYONE leaving dust and radiation for 100 years.

There is that option. There is, always, that option. *nods a very scary hello to fucking Satan in the form of Dick Cheney and his minions*

Which is precisely why this global ass-fucking the dollar is getting is coming with the Daddy Bear (not a bull; we're switching, actually, mixing metaphors -- keep up) and the Baby Bear on the hill coming down slowly. But the United States is going to get fucked by every nation in the world -- including our special friend, England -- just the same.

Take that from the bank and sit on it.

And if you're stocking up, I'd do it in gold and silver bullion coins. Euro denominated funds in overseas accounts. And enough food, water, medicine and other critical supplies to ride out six months. Ain't life grand.

It's not if. It's when.
There's more...

Saturday, September 15, 2007

Taken To School

“W-why do ah hafta see the' Principal? Ah have all th' homework in m' Toby Keith Trapper Keeper! Really!”

Found myself hanging out helping a friend, one of my oldest friends, “D”, who's a teacher, with some Photoshop work on a project.

As we talked while I mouse-clicked away, the subject of Bush's speech, and his “late-in-the-day” promises of troop drawdowns came up. “D's” a military historian as well as an educator—and a damned brilliant military historian at that—but he kept his teacher's hat on for the discussion, and son-of-a-bitch if he didn't nail Bush's “Post-Surge” idiocy perfectly.


D: “Day late and a dollar short with all the 'I'm gonna reduce troop levels' shit. Trying to give his Republican buddies room to breathe for the election. Too late.

He's like one of those lazy-ass kids I end up with every year. Won't do shit the whole year, a total flunk-out in-progress from jump. May comes and they know they're gonna fail unless there's a miracle—so, they try to make a miracle. Stay up till 3 a.m. one night doin' a whole buncha homeworks, But half-assed. Buncha loose leaf sheets fulla sketchy shit and chicken scratch. Not even the whole assignments. And-(laughing)-and, they'll do 'em all with the same Goddamn blue pen that skips—so I know they just roughed some shit off at the last minute!. Straight-up, last-minute bullshit, trying to save their asess—and they hand it in to me, expecting me to go for the okey-doke. (Laughs again)

And then, I give 'em a big, fat red 'F'. Tryin' to run the game on somebody.

President gets an 'F'. Wait till the last minute, and hand in some insulting bullshit like that? 'F's the grade, baby!”


Only thing he left out was the flop-sweat droplets on all the pages, and telltale blinking while the desperate, lazy punk is explaining his last minute “miracle”.

Too late to ram through a “No President Left Behind” program, eh?
There's more...